Politicians in Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s camp now claim they have the numbers in Parliament to shoot down his impeachment should the motion be tabled.
Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru aka Major Donk, a close ally of Mr Gachagua , told Nation that they have done an analysis on how the MPs are likely to vote. In their calculation, the MP said only about 180 MPs would support the motion at the voting stage.
President William Ruto’s side requires a total of 233 MPs for the impeachment to sail through, a number which the President’s team believes would easily be attained given the support of ODM of Raila Odinga .
ODM is the second-largest party in the current Parliament. In UDA, a majority of MPs also seem to be identifying with the President.
But the lawmaker claimed that a majority of MPs, especially from Mt Kenya and Nakuru County, were likely to skip such a vote over potential political backlash and hostility on the ground.
“They can’t get two-thirds (233 MPs). We talk, and some of those MPs who are on their side will not vote. They will not be available in Parliament for the final vote. You can rent a Kikuyu, but you can’t buy them,” said Mr Gathiru.
“The highest number they can get is 180 MPs. We have done our math and we dare them to bring it on,” he said.
Mr Gachagua’s camp is said to be actively poisoning the ground for MPs perceived to be critical to him as part of his strategy to counter the ouster plan.
Wiper of Kalonzo Musyoka has also since instructed its MPs to shoot down a possible impeachment motion against the DP.
Mr Gachagua is also said to be banking on some ODM MPs, who are seen to be opposed to the current truce between their leader Raila Odinga and President Ruto .
“I don't think the DP can survive an impeachment motion. Ruto has the numbers from Kenya Kwanza and the ODM faction of Azimio. This formidable basket of votes against the DP will also include minor parties that want to bandwagon around Kenya Kwanza and ODM to share the spoils in bringing down the DP,” observed Prof David Monda, a lecturer and a political analyst.
Mr Gachagua has at least three possible options to consider, including resignation, in an effort to avoid potential impeachment, which could have significant repercussions on his political career.
These options also include the DP mounting a political defence to rally support within Parliament, or seeking to negotiate with President Ruto to resolve internal disagreements and avoid a political fallout that could lead to an impeachment attempt.
Already Mr Gachagua has proposed to President Ruto to call his house to order, a move that would avert a fall out, and cool down the rising political temperatures. He has since vowed not to resign.
“No, never. Why? I have been given a job by the people of Kenya. This job has its own hindrances and challenges. It's part of the job process. And when I took this job, I knew it was not easy. Only I didn't know it would be that soon. I thought we will probably have a good time in the first five years and if there are challenges, maybe later. It is only that it has come sooner than we anticipated, and we had been given a commitment that this will not come. But now that has come, we live with it. We'll just work,” Mr Gachagua said on Friday during a televised interview.
Legal experts opine that whereas the impeachment route may not be a walk in the park, it could have serious political ramifications on the DP should he be removed from office as it will end his political career.
A motion for impeachment of the Deputy President originates from the National Assembly pursuant to Article 150 of the Constitution.
The motion must be supported by one-third, which is 117 members, and then supported by 233 members of the National Assembly for it to pass.
This would mean that should the DP fail to sort out his differences with President Ruto and the Head of State’s camp marshals the requisite number of MPs, Mr Gachagua could only opt to resign to save his political future.
Article 75 (3) of the Kenyan constitution states that a person who has been dismissed or otherwise removed from office through impeachment is disqualified from holding any other State office.
This means that Mr Gachagua is unlikely to seek any elective position including the presidency in 2027 should he aspire to, or even hold a public office by way of appointment.
Former Law Society of Kenya (LSK) President Eric Theuri however, says that President Ruto’s political ratings are on free fall and therefore losing the impeachment motion will “puncture his already diminishing political chances.”
“On the other hand if successfully impeached the Deputy President will not be able to hold public office in light of the constitutional dictates to that effect, hence neither of them can afford to lose,” said Mr Theuri.
The impeachment process, he adds, “is obviously going to be challenged in court if it succeeds in parliament.”
“Chances are that it may affect the political career of those who vote in favour of the motion especially if it is stopped by the Courts. I also expect the Judiciary to come under immense pressure while dealing with the issue,” added the former LSK boss.
Lawyer Willis Otieno also reaffirms that an impeached public officer like the DP is ineligible to hold any public office hence an early resignation would save his skin if at all the opposing camp marshals enough numbers.
“You cannot hold any other public office if impeached. You become ineligible to run for any office or even appointment to public office. The Supreme court reaffirmed this in the Mike Sonko case,” Mr Otieno said.
He was referring to the case of former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko who was impeached and later put up a spirited fight in court before the Supreme Court slammed the brakes on his political career.
“As in the case of former Kiambu Senator Karungo Thang’wa who had been ousted while serving as CEC, he managed to get clearance on court and became eligible to run in the last election where he secured the Kiambu senate seat,” added Mr Otieno.
He went on: “So if Gachagua were to be removed from office by way of impeachment he will never be liable to run for president if he aspires to. But if he opts to resign before the process is concluded; then he’d still qualify.”
Lawyer Richard Onsongo noted that a motion for impeachment of DP can only originate at the National Assembly and not the Senate.
“It comes to the Senate after it is supported by more than two thirds of members of the National Assembly,” he said, in light of a censure motion that had been filed by Tana River Senator Danson Mungatana against the DP at the Senate.
Prof Monda noted that resigning before facing the ignominy and public humiliation of an impeachment which will automatically bar him from holding public office again would be a viable option.
“If the DP is impeached, the fallout on the Mountain will be massive. Especially with the sense of betrayal the DP is painting to his followers of Ruto. More importantly, is the presence of Raila in the Kenya Kwanza tent and the enduring Railaphobia that has been pervasive in the region for many generations,” said Prof Monda.
Political and governance expert Javas Bigambo argues that the successful impeachment of a State Officer connotes the established and settled fact of the violation of the Constitution and other statutes.
“In this regard, such violation will forbid and bar the subject officer from holding public office again. Such determination in the face of justice must have given the officer in question the right to be heard and to be represented,” said Mr Bigambo.
If the Senate and the courts settle the evidence with regard to the violations, he says, then the officer in question will suffer the misfortune of not holding public office again.
For Mr Dismas Mokua, DP Gachagua’s upward political trajectory may come to an abrupt end in the unlikely event that he is impeached.
“While the probability of impeachment under the circumstances is low, various variables may converge to make impeachment a reality.
“In the event that the impeachment is a success, the probability of DP Gachagua, his proxies, surrogates and supporters going to court is 100 percent. This matter will obviously end at the Supreme Court,” Mr Mokua told Nation .
