Two hundred and eighty two MPs, most drawn from President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and opposition leader Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), voted to impeach Mr Gachagua while 44 voted in his favour.
The battle to save or slay Mr Gachagua has shifted to the Senate, where Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga’s parties still enjoy a commanding lead, even though analysts say it might not be as decisive as the National Assembly.
But even as Mr Gachagua is expected to face senators and defend himself against the 11 charges he faces, the numbers could work against him, owing to the voting pattern in the National Assembly.
President Ruto and Mr Odinga’s new-found good relationship appears to be playing out against Mr Gachagua, who has shifted his focus to the courts.
The number required to send Mr Gachagua home is 45. He needs at least 23 senators on his side to defeat the impeachment motion at the Senate.
This is a tall order, based on an analysis by the Daily Nation of likely voting patterns informed by the outcome in the National Assembly, party and regional affiliations.
According to the projection, at least 51 senators could support his removal from office, with 12 against, even as the position of four remains unclear.
UDA has the largest number of senators at 34, followed by ODM which has 20.
Mr Kalonzo Musyoka’s [JO1] Wiper and Jubilee parties have four senators each, the United Democratic Movement (UDM) has two, while the Democratic Party (DP), Ford Kenya and National Reconstruction Alliance (NRA) have one each.
The four Wiper Party senators are Mr Enoch Wambua (Kitui), Ms Agnes Kavindu (Machakos), Mr Dan Maanzo (Makueni) and Ms Shakila Abdallah (Nominated).
It is not lost to Kenyans that last week, Senator Maanzo tabled a censure motion against President Ruto as a retaliation to a similar motion against Mr Gachagua that had been tabled by Tana River Senator Danson Mungatana.
The Makueni senator argued that if Mr Gachagua had to go, the President should also leave office.
“It is a response to the censure motion against the Deputy President. Tumesema kufa dereva, kufa makanga (We say if the conductor dies, so should the bus driver). If the DP has to go, the President too has to go,” Senator Maanzo said.
Mr Gachagua has rallied some senators to his side, and they have not been silent about their support for him.
These are Kirinyaga Senator James Murango, Kiambu’s Karungo Thang’wa, Mr Joe Nyutu of Murang’a and Nyandaru’s John Methu.
Laikipia Senator John Kinyua and his Nakuru colleague Tabitha Karanja have kept a low political profile, with analysts saying their votes could swing in either direction.
Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei is seen by some to be sympathetic to Mr Gachagua, with the second-term lawmaker seen with Mr Gachagua in the waiting lobby of Parliament buildings ahead of the impeachment on Tuesday, October 8.
On the floor of the House yesterday, Mr Cherargei, Mr Methu and Mr Wambua were the only senators who attempted to put up a case to have the two days directed by Speaker Kingi to hear charges against Mr Gachagua extended.
The Nandi senator called for an extra day in consideration of the impeachment motion “since it is a matter of national interest that will involve a number of process”.
“Would you consider extending it even for a day because this is the trial House? Just add an extra day so that the accusers and the Deputy President can have time to present their case,” Mr Cherargei said.
According to Mr Methu, the matter should not be hurried as it is weighty and of serious public interest.
“We should not hurry this process like the last one on (Meru Governor) Kawira Mwangaza where we did not allow members to debate and convince others,” he said.
Mr Wambua echoed the sentiments of fellow senators, saying the whole world is watching the House.
“This is the time we must demonstrate proper leadership. Prayers by Senators Cherargei and Methu sit well,” the Kitui senator said.
“Let there be assurance that we – sitting as judges – will have adequate time for caucus and steer the process effectively. I would hate to see a situation like Kawira’s case.”
Outside the two scenarios, the drive to impeach Mr Gachagua has also divided lawmakers, with some appearing to be charting independent paths and criticising the process.
A week ago, Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah said Mr Gachagua should focus on raising the numbers at the Senate, which has the final say on the motion.
“The Senate has fewer members compared to the National Assembly. He still has a chance to fight the impeachment,” Mr Omtatah said.
A Daily Nation analysis shows the political inclination of several senators is unclear, especially after the implosion in the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition.
In late August, eleven senators from Mt Kenya attended a meeting with the DP at his official residence in Karen, Nairobi, and went to the extent of pledging to stand with him.
The senators also committed to supporting whatever political direction Mr Gachagua deemed fit, with the meeting said to have been planned to mend fences with some who were at loggerheads with the DP.
Mr Mwenda Gataya (Tharaka-Nithi), Mr Alexander Mundigi (Embu), Mr Kamau Githuku (Lamu), Mr Kathuri Murungi (Meru), Ms Veronica Maina (Nominated), Mr Kinyua and Ms Karanja were at the meeting.
Last month, however, Mr Gachagua’s arithmetic got muddied when seven senators from the region disowned him and vowed to throw their weight behind Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki, saying he is the preferred kingpin of Mt Kenya.
Some of the senators even declared they would support an impeachment motion against Mr Gachagua should it make its way to the House.
“We want to remove the Deputy President from the government. When it (impeachment motion) comes to the House, all these senators here will be the first to support it. We need to have someone who represents the face of the country,” Mr Gataya said.
According to Mr Dismas Mokua, an analyst, the voting trajectory of the National Assembly gave an insight into the outcome of the election in the Senate.
“The probability of the voting pattern at the Senate aligning with the National Assembly is almost 100 per cent. Mr Gachagua cooked his goose,” Mr Mokua told the Daily Nation .
“He failed to socialise with Article 147 of the Constitution. While the Senate will offer him the opportunity to present his case, the die is cast.”
