The impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua could trigger major political shakeups and realignments in the country ahead of the 2027 elections.
The voting patterns in the National Assembly during Mr Gachagua’s ouster motion on Tuesday reflected a move that could lead to possible political shifts going into the 2027 poll.
The pattern did not imitate the 2022 elections in which President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza competed against Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition.
Mr Odinga, the leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party, which has in recent months leaned towards Dr Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), voted with the ruling party to remove Mr Gachagua from office, revealing the possibility of a collaborative arrangement.
President Ruto had in July co-opted some of Mr Odinga’s key lieutenants into his cabinet, with Dr Oburu Oginga, Mr Odinga’s elder brother hinting at a possible working arrangement with the Head of State.
Both the National Assembly Majority and Minority leaders, Kimani Ichung’wa and Junet Mohamed, spoke passionately about the move to kick out the DP on the floor of the House on Tuesday, rallying their members in the course.
In the end, 282 MPs voted in support of the motion against 44, who favoured the country’s second in command.
It was also clear that Mr Odinga’s Azimio coalition, on whose ticket he contested the 2022 presidential election, was divided after the majority of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s lieutenants broke ranks with Mr Odinga’s ODM to vote in favour of the DP.
Political activist Tony Gachoka argues that there’s a higher possibility of Mr Musyoka’s Lower Eastern (Ukambani) political bastion striking a 2027 political deal with Mr Gachagua’s Mt Kenya backyard.
“It is evident that President Ruto is behind the tribulations facing his deputy and Kalonzo has come in handy to provide Mt Kenya a shoulder to lean on, this will not go in vain. We foresee a possible alliance between Ukambani and the mountain going into the future,” Mr Gachoka told Nation.
Last Sunday, Mr Gachagua turned to the opposition and reached out for pardoning ahead of his ouster vote, but the plea only fell on deaf ears.
“If our brothers did not support the president and me the way my region and Rift Valley supported him, and probably you find that in appreciating our people and the support they gave the president and me, probably our utterances made you feel uncomfortable, we did not mean bad, we were simply appreciating people who voted for us and if you feel that we rubbed you the wrong way, please find it in your heart to forgive me,” the DP pleaded.
Already there are clear indications that the ouster of the DP, whether successful or not, will no doubt have serious political ramifications.
Various political factions could reposition themselves to secure a foothold in the power vacuum left behind.
This would likely lead to new alliances as both ruling and opposition camps scramble to fill the gap, creating an environment ripe for realignment.
The changes would influence power dynamics, both in the executive and within key political parties, as different leaders seek to leverage the opportunity to boost their influence ahead of future elections.
President Ruto’s onslaught against his deputy has since unsettled Mt Kenya region, which voted for him almost to a man in the last election, a move that now forces the president to target Mr Odinga’s bastions.
Mr Odinga has enjoyed support in his Nyanza backyard, Western and Coast regions, areas President Ruto targeted with his cabinet appointments.
President Ruto has tapped former ODM deputy party leaders Hassan Joho (Coast) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Western), former ODM National Chairman John Mbadi and ex-Secretary of Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi from Nyanza, as well as former member of the party's elections board Ms Beatrice Askul from Turkana county into his cabinet.
Analysts say President Ruto is keen on having a political backup from the regions should Mt Kenya continue to slip away from his grip.
He is also not leaving anything to chance and is working round the clock to secure a portion of Mt Kenya region, with talk of tapping Interior Cabinet Secretary Prof Kithure Kindiki from Mt Kenya East as Mr Gachagua’s possible replacement should he be removed from office.
Mt Kenya East has Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi counties, where President Ruto secured 398,946, 187,981, and 145,081 votes respectively totaling 732,008 votes, against Mr Odinga’s 103,679, 31,209, and 15,062 votes respectively, a total of 149,950 votes.
Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga has already termed the move to impeach Mr Gachagua as an affront to the people of Mt Kenya region, warning of dire political consequences.
“Nobody should lie to the president that whatever is happening to our son, he is still popular here as he used to be. That motion is an attack on the people of Mt Kenya region with serious consequences,” Mr Kahiga warned.
In Mt Kenya West, which has Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, and Kiambu counties, President Ruto got a total of 1,632,788 votes against Mr Odinga’s 423,295 votes.
Dr Ruto secured 189,519, 272,507, 220,984, 343,349, and 606,429 votes in Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, and Kiambu respectively, while Mr Odinga had 49,228, 52,052, 37,909, 73,526 and 210,580 votes in that order.
In Nakuru and Laikipia counties, Dr Ruto managed 455,864 and 119,142 votes respectively against Mr Odinga’s 226,052 and 48,908 votes.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo argues that “recapturing the support of Mt Kenya for President Ruto is not necessarily a foreclosed matter.”
“It will require possibly picking another leader from the Kikuyu fiefdom to replace Rigathi Gachagua, one who can counter Gachagua's bile-induced politics and agility. If not, he will need strategies to divide the Kikuyu vote, disintegrate the Gema, and ensure absolute support from Western Kenya by picking a Luhya Deputy President,” Mr Bigambo says.
In picking a Luhya as he suggests, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi could have an upper hand, owing to his third-in-command position in the current Executive.
Analysts also believe that it is only the Luhya vote in one basket that would match the populous Mt Kenya vote, which currently does not sit well with the president.
Siaya senator Dr Oburu Oginga, argues that his brother Raila Odinga has since embraced President Ruto, adding that the Luo nation will be ready to pay his 2007 political debt should he make his promises a reality and involve the community in employment in his administration.
“Ruto has been welcomed in the Luo Nation and I think it is not bad kurudisha mkono (pay a political debt),” Dr Oginga said during the thanksgiving ceremony for Mr Wandayi in Ugunja that was attended by the Head of State.
He noted that President Ruto played a major role in 2007 in making Mr Odinga Prime Minister of Kenya.
“He did not just support him by word of mouth but mobilised people in the Rift Valley who voted for him man to man yet we did not give him much in the last election,” Dr Oginga said.
President Ruto has also publicly acknowledged that UDA and ODM share a common agenda and that nothing would stop them from working together having served as ODM deputy party leader in the past.
“I thank my brother Raila Odinga for accepting to work with me. We want to work together and bring the country’s interests forward. There comes a time when the prosperity, transformation, and unity of the country comes first,” President Ruto said during the thanksgiving ceremony of Mr Oparanya in Kakamega last month.
