No direct ticket? ODM plots against Orengo ahead of 2027 elections

A party wing led by Dr Oburu Oginga, who took over after the death of his brother and former premier Raila Odinga, is putting obstacles in his way. Their case against him? He opposes the Broad-Based Government and is fermenting dissent.

They have lined up a number of obstacles and, depending on how he responds, they could force the veteran politician into early retirement next year.

The Nation has learnt that the pro-broad-based team is creating obstacles for the outspoken county chief as part of a broader scheme to cut him down to size.

Insiders believe this is aimed at reasserting control over the political direction of the ODM in the Nyanza region.

As part of the push to isolate him, President William Ruto, who visited the county last Sunday, promised to return "to launch development projects".

Also Read: James Orengo - My problem with Ruto, Oburu and why Edwin Sifuna is fit to be president 

According to insiders, the governor will not be invited to these events; instead, his estranged deputy, William Oduol, will play host.

“In Siaya, we are constructing 8,000 affordable housing units, 28 modern markets and 1,000 hostels. Altogether, we are investing approximately 28 billion shillings in housing, hostels, markets, and related infrastructure,” he said.

This includes roads, a pier at Usenge Beach and fish landing sites. Boro–Hawinga–Uwasi Road (25 km) is also one of them.

Governor Orengo is allied to the embattled ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi camp, which is critical of a possible ODM-UDA 2027 pact.

At the heart of it is a duel for supremacy between the governor and Senator Oginga. Mr Orengo opposes Dr Oginga’s efforts to align the party with President Ruto’s UDA ahead of the 2027 election.

Gumbo back in ODM

Former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo has returned to the party — a move widely seen as part of a broader strategy to counterbalance Mr Orengo’s influence and pave the way for a Gumbo–Orengo gubernatorial rematch in 2027.

“Through our party leader, I would like to announce today that, God willing, I will run for governor of Siaya next year to redeem this county,” Mr Gumbo publicly declared on his return to the ODM party.

He then chanted, ‘Orengo bye, Orengo bye,’ in what appeared to be a symbolic farewell to the incumbent.

Mr Gumbo described his return to the ODM as a homecoming, noting that he was one of the party’s founding members.

‘It is good to be back home. I am an ODM founder member, and I am so happy to be home. Thank you, party leader; thank you, deputy party leader; and thank you, Madam Chairlady,” he said.

He also urged party members to support Dr Oginga as he strives to strengthen and unify the party in Siaya and beyond.

This is a significant relationship, given the bitter fallout between Mr Orengo and Mr Oduol since 2023, when the MCAs removed the deputy.

However, Mr Oduol survived the impeachment attempt after the Senate declined to uphold the charges.

Mr Oduol appears to relish the trappings of power, and he was among the dignitaries who lined up to welcome President Ruto in Siaya last Sunday.

The failed impeachment has deepened the divisions within Siaya’s political leadership, creating new fault lines that continue to influence local alliances.

Also Read: Orengo, Sifuna, Babu launch rival rallies as ODM rift widens

Orengo aids arrested

In a move that Mr Orengo described as an attempt to repress dissent, the police arrested his main bodyguard in Nairobi and eight other members of staff in Siaya on the eve of President Ruto’s tour of Siaya.

Mr Orengo said the arrests were connected to the presidential visit to Siaya on Sunday 8 March, during which he attended the homecoming ceremony of Dr Ouma Oluga, Medical Services PS, in Rarieda constituency.

“This egregious conduct on the part of the police has no place in a constitutional democracy. It was intended to intimidate and harass us, but it will not deter us from pursuing our cause," said Mr Orengo.

However, it was the visit by Siaya MCAs to the Eldoret State Lodge, where they were hosted by the Head of State earlier this year, that signalled that all was not well.

Speaker, MCAs visit Ruto

On January 10, 2026, the MCAs, led by Speaker George Okode, made the rare visit to President Ruto, arousing curiosity due to the frosty relationship between Mr Orengo and President Ruto, as well as between President Ruto and Dr Oginga.

At least 41 out of the 42 MCAs from Siaya attended the meeting, raising suspicions of a potential plot to impeach Mr Orengo, despite President Ruto insisting that the visit was purely for development purposes.

'We agreed on the need to accelerate ongoing projects and fast-track planned initiatives to ensure development has a real impact on people's lives,' said President Ruto at the time.

These manoeuvres signal a renewed power struggle between Dr Oginga and Mr Orengo in a county that has long been a stronghold of the late ODM leader Raila Odinga, with rival factions competing for control of the region's political future.

Tensions between Dr Oginga and Mr Orengo date back to 2013, when they both expressed an interest in contesting the Siaya senatorial seat following the promulgation of the new constitution.

At the time, the ODM leadership faced the difficult task of managing competing ambitions among its senior leaders in the county.

Dr Oginga was eventually persuaded by Raila to abandon his Senate bid and instead run for the Siaya governorship — a move aimed at avoiding a bruising contest between the two political heavyweights.

However, the gubernatorial race proved equally contentious.

Dr Oginga found himself in a fierce battle with businessman William Oduol during the ODM nomination process, with both camps claiming victory amid chaos.

The dispute forced the party to disqualify both candidates before awarding the nomination to Cornel Rasanga, who went on to win the governorship.

Mr Oduol subsequently defected to the National Agenda Party and contested Mr Rasanga in the general election, but lost.

For Dr Oginga, the fallout from the disputed primaries was mitigated by a political compromise. His nomination to Parliament was widely interpreted as a consolation prize intended to maintain party unity in Siaya.

Also Read: ‘Rebel’ Oduol leads in Siaya - Cord poll  

The rivalry resurfaced in 2017 when Dr Oginga sought the ODM nomination to stand in the Bondo parliamentary election.

The constituency was then represented by the incumbent MP, Gideon Ochanda, and the party primaries quickly turned into another heated contest.

Initial results indicated that Dr Oginga had lost the nomination, a result he strongly disputed, citing irregularities in the voting process.

Although some reports later suggested that he had been declared the winner following a review of the dispute, the controversy ultimately left the contest unresolved.

Ultimately, Dr Oginga decided not to stand for the parliamentary seat in the general election.

Instead, he stepped aside and rallied behind the ODM candidate, aiming to preserve party unity in the region.

Later that year, he was elected to the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA), marking another political milestone for the veteran leader within the ODM establishment.

"Negirusha Arusha" ("They threw me to Arusha"), Dr Oginga said in one of his public addresses at the time.

Also Read: Gumbo, businessman William Oduol team up in bid to unseat Siaya Governor Cornel Rasanga

Backing Wandayi

The rivalry took a sharper turn ahead of the 2022 general election.

This time, Dr Oginga — now the ODM party leader following Raila's death on 15 October last year — set his sights on the Siaya senate seat, which was then held by Mr Orengo.

In a calculated political move, Dr Oginga also threw his weight behind the then Ugunja MP, Opiyo Wandayi — now Energy Cabinet Secretary — for the Siaya governorship.

This effectively positioned Mr Wandayi as Mr Orengo’s main rival in the ODM primaries for governor.

Dr Oginga has openly acknowledged that he reached out to Raila to seek his support for Mr Wandayi in the race.

According to Dr Oginga, Raila questioned the logic of his strategy.

“Raila asked me where I wanted him to take Orengo after laying claim to his Senate seat and then backing Wandayi for governor. That’s when I abandoned my support for Wandayi and asked him to defer his dream of becoming governor of Siaya, which he gladly accepted,” said Dr Oginga.

Raila reportedly asked Dr Oginga to explain what he thought Mr Orengo's political future would be if he took the senatorial seat while supporting another candidate for governor.

This episode highlighted the delicate balancing act within ODM, where senior leaders sought to manage internal rivalries without fracturing the party’s support base.

Ultimately, Mr Orengo won the ODM nomination for governor and went on to secure the seat, while Dr Oginga won the Senate position and Mr Wandayi won his Ugunja MP seat.

Wandayi was later elevated to the position of National Assembly Minority Leader before being appointed to the cabinet.

However, the contest left behind lingering tensions that continue to influence political alliances in Siaya.

Earlier contests had also hinted at the strained relationship between the two politicians.

ODM in Siaya

During the 2007 elections, Mr Orengo successfully defended the Ugenya parliamentary seat, but he faced strong competition from businessman Steve Mwanga in the ODM nominations.

In subsequent interviews, Dr Oginga revealed that Mr Mwanga had actually won the party primaries, but Mr Orengo was ultimately cleared to represent the constituency.

This disclosure fuelled speculation about internal manoeuvring within the party and further illustrated the complex political dynamics surrounding the two leaders.

Fast forward to the present day and the rivalry appears to be entering a new phase.

Following Raila’s death, internal party alignments in Nyanza have shifted.

Mr Gumbo, who is said to be being courted by Dr Oginga’s camp to take over from Mr Orengo, fell out with ODM in 2022 and competed against Mr Orengo under the United Democratic Movement (UDM) banner. He then joined President Ruto’s UDA after the election.

He contested the Siaya governorship twice — first in 2017 against Cornel Rasanga, and later in 2022 against Orengo — but lost both times.

However, at an ODM "Linda Ground" rally in Siaya on 21 February, Mr Gumbo publicly announced his return to the party.

Many believe that the comeback is not just a symbolic gesture, but rather part of a calculated plan to put Mr Gumbo up against Mr Orengo in the 2027 election.

According to insiders, Dr Oginga played a key role in persuading Mr Gumbo to rejoin the ODM party.

However, Dr Oginga has insisted that: 'ODM remains open to welcoming back leaders who are willing to work under the party’s banner as we consolidate our support ahead of the 2027 elections.'

According to these sources, the veteran politician has been working behind the scenes to consolidate support for leaders sidelined by Mr Orengo’s administration.

Interestingly, Dr Oginga's relationship with Mr Gumbo dates back nearly two decades.

It is widely believed that Dr Oginga introduced Mr Gumbo to frontline politics in 2007, when the then Rarieda MP, Raphael Tuju, joined the Party of National Unity (PNU) under President Mwai Kibaki.

His return to the party revives that old political alliance and potentially positions him as a key player in the ongoing power struggle.

Analysts view the unfolding developments as being less about personal rivalry and more about the broader contest for influence within the ODM in the post-Raila era.

Siaya County remains a symbolic and strategic political base for the party.

Control of the county’s political structures could determine the direction in which the party moves in the region.

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