Oburu Oginga: Why 2026 is the defining year for ODM

He said the decision must be made “soon”, not in 2027, warning that any delay would plunge the party into uncertainty and factional infighting that could weaken its electoral machinery.

“We have stated categorically that we shall go to the next election as a coalition with other partners and if we don’t agree, we can go it alone as a party,” Dr Oginga said in his New Year interview on Nam Lolwe FM on Thursday.

“We have three options: continue as broad-based, go it alone, or join other new partners. These decisions must be made this year, not later. 2027 will be for campaigns.”

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His remarks place ODM at a crossroads barely a year after Raila Odinga led the party into a broad-based working arrangement with President Ruto’s administration — a move that reconfigured Kenya’s opposition politics.

Dr Oginga insists that his stewardship is guided by one principle: fidelity to Raila Odinga’s last political decision as ODM leader, a move that has left insiders convinced that ODM is likely to forge a coalition with President Ruto’s UDA.

“Let’s stick to where Raila left us,” he said. “He left us in the broad-based government with President Ruto until the 2027 election.”

That decision — ODM’s cooperation with the Kenya Kwanza administration — remains one of the most contentious in the party’s history. To critics, it diluted ODM’s opposition identity; to supporters, it offered a pathway to influence policy from within government and to stabilise the country after months of protests.

Dr Oginga says ODM is monitoring the implementation of the ten-point agenda agreed upon with the government.

The ten-point agenda spans inclusivity, devolution, public debt audit, youth empowerment, constitutionalism, equity in public appointments, and reparations for victims of protest-related violence between 2017 and 2023.

“In this new year, we want to ensure they are all implemented. So far, some have been implemented,” Dr Oginga said.

On compensation for victims of past unrest — a key ODM demand — he said the matter had stalled in court, despite the Treasury allocating funds through National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi.

Read: ODM at crossroads as Oburu revises Raila’s 2027 timeline in deal with Ruto

“The courts have stopped the compensation so far,” he said.

Asked whether he feels he has stepped into Raila’s towering shoes, Dr Oginga was candid.

“It’s big shoes, but I’m trying to fit in,” he said. “I need support from those around me. Our people have shown love and support.”

He said ODM’s grassroots supporters had rallied behind him and that his immediate priority was to keep the party alert, united and active.

“We don’t want to sleep. We want to open our eyes,” he said. “We will not wait until 2027 to make a decision.”

Secret negotiations

Dr Oginga also addressed controversy surrounding a recent meeting held at President Ruto’s Kilgoris home and claims that it signalled a secret realignment between ODM and the Head of State.

He noted that the meeting was simply an informal event to celebrate President Ruto’s 59th birthday.

He dismissed claims that such meetings amounted to selling out ODM or conducting secret negotiations.

“I don’t have to make noise when I meet President Ruto because we are in the broad-based government,” he said. “We can talk on the phone, go to meet him or he comes to meet me.”

Dr Oginga said such engagements were normal political interactions and pointed out that the late Raila had also maintained open channels with President Ruto.

“How do you work with somebody if you can’t meet?” he asked.

Dr Oginga was emphatic in rejecting claims that he or other leaders were plotting to sell ODM.

“Nobody can sell ODM so long as I’m at the helm,” he said. “It’s too expensive to sell ODM, so I wonder how much it can be sold for.”

He described ODM as a mass movement with structures down to polling stations, saying rumours of a sellout were politically motivated distractions.
“Some people simply want to divert us and keep us explaining mundane things,” he said.

He also clarified that ODM’s structures, not individual personalities, determine who participates in formal party organs.

“ODM has structures. Babu belongs in no party organ. Even Orengo,” he said, adding that the President has the prerogative to invite anyone to his private residence.

On allegations that former President Uhuru Kenyatta was using money to divide ODM, Dr Oginga said he had no evidence.

“I’m not aware. I have no evidence to say Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta, my friend, wants to divide ODM,” he said.

He said he remained in contact with Mr Kenyatta and would seek clarification.

“I will call him and ask him whether this is true,” he said.

Dr Oginga acknowledged that ODM was experiencing ideological debates, particularly over whether to adopt a ‘Wantam’ (one-term presidency) stance or ‘Tutam’ (two-term presidency) approach towards President Ruto.

“The only problem we have in ODM is Wantam, Tutam and whether ODM should go it alone,” he said.

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Still, he expressed confidence that consensus would be reached.

“ODM is a big party with divergent opinions, but we shall reach a consensus,” he said.

On the future of the Luo political constituency, Dr Oginga said its fate was inseparable from ODM’s strategic choices.

“This depends on the decision of the party,” he said. “What the party organs decide, we shall abide by that.”

He underscored that political parties exist to capture power — not merely to oppose.

“No party is formed to be in the opposition,” he said. “If we get a way of capturing power, jointly with others or as a party, so be it.”

Looking ahead to 2027, Dr Oginga said ODM’s focus this year would be organisational strengthening.

“Let our people register as voters and as members of ODM,” he said. “Let’s not just be supporters but members.”

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