The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) may be quietly retreating from the battle for the nation’s highest office—or even the second— in 2027, if declarations by its top leadership are anything to go by.
ODM party leader Oburu Oginga, once viewed as the party’s natural flagbearer should the outfit chart an independent political course, has said he will defend his Siaya senatorial seat.
At the same time, the party’s chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, whose name had gained traction in political circles as a possible running mate to President William Ruto, has also declared her intention to seek re-election in 2027.
ODM party leader Oburu Oginga and party chairperson Gladys Wanga during the party aspirants' consultative meeting in Kisumu on May 25, 2026.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
The announcement comes barely two weeks after a poll by Trends and Insights showed Deputy President Kithure Kindiki enjoying 59 per cent support, ahead of his closest challenger, Ms Wanga, who garnered 12 per cent, while Dr Oginga trailed at 3 per cent.
The declarations have sent ripples across the country’s political landscape. To many observers, they narrow the possibility of ODM mounting a serious bid for either the presidency or the deputy presidency, even as the party inches closer to pre-election negotiations where power sharing and government positions are expected to dominate the agenda.
The declarations came during a high-profile consultative meeting in Kisumu that brought together ODM aspirants from the Nyanza region.
In a moment that electrified the gathering, Dr Oginga rose to his feet when aspirants eyeing Siaya seats were asked to identify themselves.
“I am happy to be here as an aspirant. I will be defending my senatorial seat in 2027,” Dr Oginga declared to thunderous applause and jubilant cheers.
Dr Oginga’s political journey spans decades. He has previously served as a councillor in Kisumu, MP for Bondo, member of the East African Legislative Assembly and assistant Finance Minister.
ODM party leader Oburu Oginga speaks during the party aspirants' consultative meeting in Kisumu on May 25, 2026.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
Yet the ODM leader has lately appeared to vacillate on the question of whether the party will field a presidential candidate, leaving many supporters uncertain about its ultimate direction.
At one point, he firmly declared that ODM would field a presidential candidate and asserted that, as party leader, he was the automatic flagbearer, bluntly telling dissenters to seek alternative political vehicles if they disagreed.
Soon after, the tone softened. Attention shifted towards possible cooperation talks with President Ruto’s UDA, with discussions reportedly centred on power-sharing arrangements designed to secure ODM a greater stake in government.
Then came yet another turn. ODM signalled disinterest in the deputy presidency, only for party voices later to suggest that the seat had become a target.
It is now seems that ODM may no longer be preparing to storm State House directly, but is instead positioning itself to negotiate influence and preserve regional dominance.
The latest declarations by Dr Oginga and Ms Wanga may point to either bargaining for other interests within government or paving the way for other candidates to carry the party’s ambitions for the country’s two top offices.
Siaya Governor James Orengo remains the only senior ODM figure to openly declare interest in the presidency on the party’s ticket.
Mr Orengo, who is among the rebel leaders under the Linda Mwananchi faction of ODM, has also referred to himself as the de facto party leader as he positions himself to challenge President Ruto for the country’s top seat.
Dr Oginga and Ms Wanga assured aspirants that party nominations would be free and fair, insisting that neither bribery nor proximity to the leadership would guarantee anyone a ticket.
Dr Oginga spoke about his long parliamentary career, saying the years had equipped him with the experience, resilience and institutional wisdom needed to guide ODM to victory.
“As we approach the primaries, I want to give you my definitive commitment that our nomination process will be absolutely free, fair and transparent. Your democratic right will be protected,” said Dr Oginga.
Siaya Governor James Orengo speaks to journalists at Kisumu International Airport on April 24, 2026.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
He stressed that while competition among aspirants was natural, the mission was greater than any one individual, calling for unity once nominations are concluded. He also warned against attempts to influence the process through financial inducements.
“Even if you have money and give it to me for fuel, do not be deluded that you have bought my support, we will ensure free and fair nominations. Even if you are my friend, you will have to face the people,” said Dr Oginga.
The ODM leader further cautioned aspirants against complacency after securing party tickets, noting that nominations alone do not guarantee electoral victory.
He reiterated that the party would push for zoning arrangements in its strongholds, insisting the strategy would apply only to UDA, with whom ODM is expected to enter into a political pact.
“Zoning happens in every election, it is not a new concept. We lost Nairobi governorship because we didn’t zone. Zoning will happen whether you like it or not,” he said.
ODM national chair and Homa Bay County Governor Gladys Wanga during the party's Special Delegates Convention in Nairobi on March 27, 2026.
Photo credit: Bonface Bogita | Nation Media Group
Ms Wanga echoed the call for credible nominations, saying the party must get the process right.
“There will be no sacred cows, because we have to work hard and get as many elective seats as possible. If we bungle nominations we will have a problem,” said Ms Wanga.
She maintained that the party had tasked Dr Oginga with pushing for a 50-50 power-sharing arrangement with UDA, arguing that ODM’s stature warranted equal footing in any political agreement.
However, she insisted that such leverage would only come if the party remained organised, secured elective seats and negotiated from a position of strength.
ODM is expected to hold a major rally in Kisumu on May 31, where the party is expected to make far-reaching political declarations.
