The implosion in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is now threatening to weaken the outfit’s stakes in the planned coalition talks with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
ODM had intended to flaunt its traditional support bases and numerical strength in Parliament in demanding higher stakes in a pre-election coalition agreement with UDA.
But the outfit that has been formidable in the last four successive general elections is now faced with a major infighting that could leave it fractured and weakened ahead of the talks.
Interim party leader Dr Oburu Oginga and firebrand Secretary General Edwin Sifuna are rallying the outfit’s supporters in opposite directions, in a development that could have the rank and file of the party divided into two camps ahead of the 2027 General Election.
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna addresses supporters in Kitengela on Sunday, February 15, 2026.
Photo credit: Stanley Ngotho | Nation Media Group
Dr Ruto’s decision to work with ODM was informed by the desire to inherit the party’s significant influence in Nyanza, Coast and Western regions.
Inheriting the ODM zones promised his 2027 re-election a major boost. But with the infighting, Dr Ruto is likely to scout for new allies in the event Mr Sifuna-led camp succeeds in rallying some of the party’s supporters against the broad-based government.
ODM, through Dr Oginga, has laid claim to the running mate slot as a condition for the party to back President Ruto’s re-election.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and his allies have, of late, become bullish about retaining the DP slot. Prof Kindiki at the weekend said the ODM party has no chance in fighting for his seat.
“I understand that the demands by ODM are causing jitters here in Meru. I am the deputy president and I am not going anywhere. In politics, I am no pushover and cannot be intimidated. I assure you that there is no cause for alarm. The demands by ODM are hot air,” DP Kindiki said on Sunday.
ODM co-deputy party leader and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Ososti accused Dr Oginga-led camp of making the once dominant party appear desperate for the DP position. He said ODM should instead exploit its massive political movement with grassroots presence across the country to field a presidential candidate.
“Our position is clear that ODM cannot enter into a coalition agreement as a weaker party. Our colleagues in the broad based government are bargaining for things that do not reflect ODM’s strength.”
“We want ODM to remain a formidable outfit. When people start telling us that we cannot get even the DP slot, it tells you how UDA perceive us even before the coalition talks can start,” said Mr Osotsi.
Political analysts reckon that the Sifuna-led camp seems to be speaking the language of ODM supporters. They argue that should the two camps fail to reconcile, a majority of the party supporters are likely to align with the faction that has declared opposition to Dr Ruto’s re-election.
“ODM's internal wrangles are creating a slippery path to its initially esteemed formidability. Literally, it puts ODM's strength in limbo, and it has to depend on fate. The party leadership has to find mechanisms of streamlining it for strengthened negotiations with UDA,” says Javas Bigambo, a political analyst.
He notes that in the absence of internal harmony, ODM splinter groups will easily create political islands.
“Still, President Ruto stands to benefit by dealing and negotiating with each faction separately, because politics is about interests. Dr. Oburu's most urgent task is to lead a harmonious ODM into negotiations, aware that internal interests are different.”
Prof David Monda, a US-based university lecturer and political analyst, notes that the Sifuna-led team has taken the thunder from under the feet of the Dr Oginga-led faction. Prof Monda says Gen Zs also seem to be identifying with Mr Sifuna.
“The narrative shaping up is to have Sifuna as the focal point for the broader ideals of Baba/ODM and the aspirations of the Gen Zs. The narrative of speaking truth to power and confronting injustice spearheaded by Raila for years was also captured by the Sifuna led team,” says Prof Monda.
Kisii Governor Simba Arati and ODM party leader Dr Oburu Oginga at Sameta grounds in Kisii County during the 'Linda Ground' function on January 25, 2026.
Photo credit: Ruth Mbula | Nation Media Group
“Ironically, the fact they were teargassed in Kitengela reinforces the narrative of persecution from the state - a hallmark of years of struggle by Raila. Team Oburu on the other hand are shaping up to be a puppet appendage for Ruto and UDA. Not only did they appear to have the tacit support of UDA by not being teargassed, but Team Oburu comes across as being only a shell of ODM.”
Suba South MP Caroli Omondi, who was recently installed as Azimio La Umoja Coalition Secretary General, claimed that a majority of ODM supporters appear to identify with Mr Sifuna.
He said President Ruto may not benefit much from ODM zones if he chooses to sign an agreement with the Dr Oginga-led faction.
“A political party is not the name, but the people. What is clear is that ODM supporters are thinking in a way that is different from what Oburu-led team.”
“Whoever wants to deal with ODM will have to decide if they want to deal with the people who purports to lead the party or the supporters themselves,” said Mr Omondi.
He said that the Sifuna-led team believe Azimio coalition should have a complete presidential ticket, as opposed to supporting Dr Ruto.
