The upcoming by-elections are being used as a critical testing ground for the 2027 General Elections, with major parties employing "negotiated democracy" to consolidate power.
The November 27 by-elections have triggered a storm within major political parties and coalitions, with rival camps clashing over who should carry their party tickets, even as the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) conducted its primaries on Saturday.
The feuds are evident in nearly all the major parties and coalitions, including President William Ruto’s UDA and Kenya Kwanza camp, and Mr Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in the broad-based team.
The united opposition under Democracy for the Citizen’s Party (DCP) chief Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Democratic Party’s Justin Muturi, DAP-K’s Eugene Wamalwa and People’s Liberation Party of Martha Karua, and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr Fred Matiang’i is also facing headwinds.
ODM party leader Raila Odinga (center) addresses the media at Serena Hotel in Nairobi on July 07, 2025.
In Mr Odinga’s ODM party, a fist fight nearly ensued between two senior party officials, ODM co-deputy party leader Simba Arati and ODM National Treasurer Timothy Bosire, during a crucial National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting on Thursday over party candidates in the Gusii region.
The meeting, chaired by ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, turned stormy after Mr Arati blamed Mr Bosire for allegedly “poisoning” the ground in Nyamira County for the party, thus making it lose popular contestants to their rivals.
Mr Arati is said to be under pressure as the ODM deputy party leader to deliver the three seats in the region. He claims Mr Bosire and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i are the thorns on the party’s flesh in the area.
Mr Bosire, who has appeared disgruntled in the past few months over alleged “mistreatment,” has been rallying his community for a possible exit from ODM, something that angered Mr Arati.
The three Ward by-elections in Gusii region causing ODM sleepless nights are: Nyamaiya (West Mugirango), Ekerenyo (North Mugirango) and Nyansiongo (Borabu), where a senior ODM member told Sunday Nation that the party has failed to nominate candidates.
“We don’t have candidates in the three wards in Nyamira. Even in Narok Town Ward, which belonged to us, we now lack a candidate. In Magarini constituency, the UDA candidate (Stanley Karisa Kenga) has refused to step down because he was the petitioner in the successful nullification of Harisson Kombe’s election. Things are thick and boiling up,” a senior ODM official told the Sunday Nation.
There have also been other disputes in counties like Homa Bay, Siaya and Kakamega, where rival camps are vouching for different aspirants.
Boyd Were, the son of former Kasipul MP Charles Ong'ondo Were, during his father's requiem mass at Consolata Shrine in Nairobi on May 7, 2025.
In Homa Bay, there are reports that Mr Boyd Were, son of former MP Ong’ondo Were, is the party’s blue-eyed boy, a move that has already triggered defections, while in Ugunja, insiders say forces in the party appear to lean towards Mr Moses Omondi.
Other aspirants eying the Kasipul MP seat are: businessman Philip Aroko, who has since announced his defection to vie as an independent candidate, Robert Riaga, Dr Adel Ottoman, former radio journalist George Otieno, political commentator Newton Ogada, and Rateng Otiende, among others.
In Ugunja, Mr Omondi is facing a serious challenge from Fredrick Owino - popularly known as ZB Owino, Chris Budo, lawyer Maurice Okumu, businessman Joseph Aluru, Fredrick Oyugi Dor and Sam Okoyo.
Local leaders in both Kasipul and Ugunja have accused the national office of imposing candidates, while others insist on consensus to avoid bruising primaries.
The standoff has sparked fears of further defections and independent bids that could split the vote in traditional ODM strongholds.
Fearing a fallout, the party has pledged to conduct its primaries in two volatile constituencies and two Wards, but still, there are fears the elections could be skewed to favour particular individuals.
ODM party leader Raila Odinga (second left), secretary general Edwin Sifuna (second right) and other top officials after attending the party's Central Committee meeting in Karen, Nairobi on July 29, 2025.
The ODM party’s National Elections Coordinating Committee (NECC) announced that it will conduct its primaries for Kasipul Constituency in Homa Bay County on Wednesday, September 24, Ugunja Constituency in Siaya County on Friday, September 26, Kariobangi North ward in Embakasi North in Nairobi County and Lake Zone ward, Turkana North in Turkana County on Saturday, September 27.
“The party primaries elections will be conducted through universal suffrage by registered Party members. Voting will be by secret ballot,” NECC chairperson Emily Awita announced.
The party was forced to withdraw its candidate for the Malava MP seat following an internal feud pitting Kakamega County leadership, with former ODM Deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya taking sides.
In the united opposition steered by former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i-linked United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has insisted on fielding a parliamentary candidate (Rev Isaak Muringi) in Mbeere North Constituency even after Mr Gachagua’s DCP withdrew its candidate in favour of Mr Newton Kariuki of Mr Muturi’s DP.
In Malava, DCP has also insisted on backing Collins Busiega against DAP-K’s Seth Panyako, the Secretary-General of the Kenya National Union of Nurses (KNUN), who is seen as a frontrunner.
“We are fielding a candidate (in Malava). Politics is not a love story. Where characters are compelled to love each other for convenience's sake. Edgar Busiega is our candidate to the better end," Mr Cleophas Malala, the DCP Deputy Party Leader, told the Sunday Nation.
Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) Party Leader Eugene Wamalwa (center, podium) briefs media at the party offices on August 01, 2025, on reports of leadership wrangles within the party.
DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa on Friday exuded confidence that the opposition camp will, however, come to an agreement and back the most popular candidate in the November 27 by-election.
“We shall come to an agreement over a single candidate in Malava. We were waiting for the results of a scientific polling which came out on Thursday showing our candidate on the lead. We are in talks and hope to come to an agreement,” said Mr Wamalwa.
Mr Malala has been leading Mr Busiega’s campaigns, and has remained adamant over calls for his party to throw its weight behind Mr Panyako.
The challenges in Malava are also affecting President William Ruto’s ruling UDA.
A meeting chaired by the Head of State at State House, Nairobi, on Monday, failed to settle on a candidate.
Lawyer Leonard Shimaka, Simon Kangwana, Ryan Malulu (the son of the late MP Malulu Injendi), and West Kabras MCA David Ndakwawill sought to square it out in Saturday, September 20, UDA primaries.
ODM is said to have agreed to back a UDA candidate in the upcoming mini poll in Malava after internal disagreements forced it to withdraw from the race.
The disagreements emanated from the recent party elections, where Kakamega Governor Fernandes Baraza was elected ODM party county chairman against Lugari MP Nabii Nabwera.
Former ODM deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya, the Cabinet Secretary for Cooperatives, has, however, rallied several MPs, including Woman Representative Elsie Muhanda, to support Mr Nabwera, further throwing the party’s unity in the county into disarray.
But Mr Barasa, who had been declared the winner for the Kakamega county ODM chair post, dismissed Mr Oparanya and urged President Ruto and Mr Odinga to “call the CS to order,” over what he termed as rocking the broad-based government.
Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya.
Apart from Malava, ODM will also back UDA candidates in the Banissa constituency and Baringo Senatorial race under the broad-based framework.
But still, the broad-based team is not sitting pretty as there is contention in Magarini Constituency where ODM party offered immediate former MP Harrison Kombe a direct ticket, while UDA has insisted on backing Mr Stanley Karisa Kenga.
In an earlier interview with Sunday Nation, UDA National Elections Board chairman Anthony Mwaura said the party would ask the ODM candidate to drop out in favour of the UDA candidate, arguing that Mr Kenga is the most popular choice, as evidenced by opinion polls already conducted in the area.
“The plan is to ensure that we win more than 80 per cent of the seats in the 23 electoral areas. UDA has aspirants in both Ugunja and Kasipul constituencies, but we will ask them to drop and support ODM candidates in those areas,” said Mr Mwaura.
In Mbeere North Constituency, Mr Gachagua’s DCP party was forced to withdraw its candidate in favour of Mr Muturi’s DP, after a bruising power struggle.
The wrangles escalated to such an extent that Mr Gachagua sanctioned a private opinion poll before arriving at the “no contest” verdict. His decision to step aside caught many supporters off guard.
The Mbeere North seat fell vacant after President Ruto appointed MP Geoffrey Ruku (DP) to the Cabinet, prompting a by-election.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (in red suit) with other officials during the unveiling ceremony of Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) in Lavington, Nairobi on May 15, 2025.
Many of Mr Gachagua’s loyalists expected DCP to field a candidate to test his influence. Instead, he announced the party would support Mr Muturi’s DP.
This came as a surprise since DCP had already endorsed Evurore MCA Duncan Mbui for the seat.
DP, on its part, had unveiled Muminji MCA and secular musician Newton Kariuki. Mr Mbui had already launched his campaign, claiming to have spent more than Sh10 million, when Mr Gachagua suddenly ordered him to stand down—a directive the MCA rejected.
Mr Mbui later declared he would vie as an independent, later joining Moses Kuria’s Chama Cha Kazi.
Behind the scenes, negotiations between DCP and DP were, by Mr Muturi’s own admission, “intense and bruising.”
Mr Muturi admitted the announcement brought relief within the opposition alliance, though tensions remain after it emerged that Dr Matiang’i, a member of the united opposition, has equally fielded a candidate for the seat, throwing the unity to the winds.
Mr Isaak Muringi is flying the flag of UPA, which is linked to Dr Matiang’i.
His campaign has stirred controversy as his posters carry Dr Matiang’i’s image, despite the ex-CS’s known ties to Jubilee.
“We are still engaging and hope to unite under one candidate. But nevertheless, the majority will have their way and the minority their say. Consensus building is ongoing,” stated Mr Muturi.
The November 27 by-elections will fill 24 seats vacated by appointments, court rulings and deaths of sitting leaders.
For Dr Ruto’s UDA, the polls will be a referendum on his party’s grip just three years before 2027.
For Mr Odinga’s ODM, they mark both a test of survival in its Nyanza base and an opportunity to prove its relevance within the broad-based government.
The primaries, therefore, carry weight beyond the ballot.
Mismanaged nominations have historically led to defections and costly independent bids.
In 2017 and 2022, both ODM and Jubilee lost safe seats due to messy primaries. “The process must be credible, otherwise we risk repeating the past,” noted political analyst Prof Macharia Munene.
The 24 by-elections are slated for November 27, 2025
Senate seats
1. Baringo
MP seats
1. Banissa
2. Kasipul
3. Magarini
4. Malava
5. Mbeere North
6. Ugunja
