The public fallout between President William Ruto and Kanu chairman Gideon Moi is increasingly being viewed as more than a personal disagreement. Political observers say it could reshape alliances in the Rift Valley and influence the 2027 General Election in the region that has produced two presidents — former President Daniel arap Moi and now Dr Ruto.
Over the past week, President Ruto has repeatedly attacked Mr Moi, reopening questions about the political pact the two leaders entered into last year and exposing simmering tensions between Kanu and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
The dispute has also revived debate over the future of Kanu in the Rift Valley and whether the former ruling party can still emerge as a political vehicle for leaders and voters dissatisfied with the current administration.
The origins of the latest fallout can be traced to the Baringo Senate by-election following the death of Senator William Cheptumo. Mr Moi was widely considered the front-runner in the race, a prospect that reportedly unsettled UDA strategists.
Faced with the possibility of an embarrassing defeat in a county regarded as politically symbolic, President Ruto sought a rapprochement with the Kanu chairman. The negotiations culminated in a meeting at Kabarak on October 25, 2025, where the two leaders announced that they had reconciled and would work together.
Although the details of the agreement were never made public, it was widely understood that the arrangement would pave the way for closer cooperation between Kanu and the government, with expectations that some Kanu officials would secure appointments.
Mr Moi subsequently withdrew from the race, clearing the way for UDA candidate Kiprono Chemitei, who eventually won the seat.
However, after the public display of unity at Kabarak, the two leaders were rarely seen together again, fuelling speculation that the deal had run into difficulties.
President William Ruto and Kanu Chairman Gideon Moi during a meeting with Baringo residents in Kabarak, Nakuru County on October 10, 2025.
Photo credit: Boniface Mwangi | Nation Media Group
Former Kanu secretary-general Nick Salat said the secrecy surrounding the agreement had left many questions unanswered.
“It would have been important for the Kanu leadership to make public the terms under which the two leaders agreed to work together,” Mr Salat said.
He argued that political realities had changed and that Kanu leaders needed to accept that President Ruto’s administration remained firmly in office.
“There has never been a government that has been bashed more than that of President Ruto by people who have lived in denial that they are not in government,” he said.
According to Mr Salat, UDA remains the dominant political force both in the Rift Valley and nationally.
“UDA is the party of the moment in the Rift Valley and the country, and that will hold for a long time to come,” he said.
Yet some analysts believe Mr Moi’s decision to remain silent amid the attacks could work to his political advantage.
Nairobi advocate Kipkirui Kemboi Kap Telwa said the Kanu chairman had avoided direct confrontation with the President, leaving him looking like the aggressor.
“Gideon has apparently chosen silence over an altercation with the President, which puts him in a vantage position should he exploit the situation in future,” he said.
A Kanu legislator who requested anonymity accused the President of reneging on promises allegedly made during the negotiations and argued that growing public dissatisfaction in parts of the Rift Valley could create political opportunities for Kanu.
“If things stay as they are right now until the next General Election, Kanu will provide a fallback for many politicians and voters,” the MP said.
Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi dismissed suggestions that Kanu could stage a comeback and challenged Mr Moi to test his popularity at the ballot.
“Gideon should simply offer himself as a presidential candidate or seek the Baringo Senate seat in the next General Election so that he can know he has no political clout at all,” Mr Sudi said.
President William Ruto and Kanu chairman Gideon Moi after a meeting at State House, Nairobi.
Photo credit: PCS
Despite years of declining influence, Kanu still retains pockets of support in counties such as Baringo, Narok, Samburu and West Pokot.
Joseph Sanka, Kanu’s Chepalungu constituency treasurer, said there was growing pressure within the party to field candidates across the Rift Valley in 2027.
“I can assure you that the UDA top guns will be shocked by the August 2027 General Election outcome,” he said.
The emerging debate comes against a backdrop of complaints from some residents who say parts of the Rift Valley have not benefited sufficiently from government development projects despite overwhelmingly supporting President Ruto in the 2022 election.
ODM leader in Bomet, Wilson Sigei, said voters had begun asking serious questions about development and the next General Election.
