A possible political deal between President William Ruto and veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga has triggered a flurry of high-level meetings amid a split in the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition.
Mr Odinga was last evening expected to convene a crisis meeting bringing together Azimio co-principals in an attempt to calm the political storm that threatens to plunge the coalition to its deathbed.
“There is an expectation that the Azimio leaders will meet later this evening (Saturday) to discuss recent developments in the country and take a position,” Mr Odinga’s spokesman Denis Onyango told the Sunday Nation .
Mr Odinga is said to have convened the meeting to discuss the planned national dialogue and President Ruto’s plan for a broad-based political arrangement that could see opposition figures join the Kenya Kwanza administration.
The meeting was scheduled to take place after the burial of the brother of former Kakamega governor Wycliffe Oparanya. Mr Odinga, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni, 2022 presidential candidate Prof George Wajackoya and Siaya Governor James Orengo were present at the burial.
Narc leader Martha Karua was, however, absent. Ms Karua has publicly rejected any talks with President Ruto’s side, describing previous talks — National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) — as a complete fraud.
“The talks are not necessary. It is a trap to kill the clamour for accountability by Gen Zs. We had Nadco, but after a whole year what did it have? It was a complete fraud because it did not address the high cost of living,” said Ms Karua.
She said that she has not been invited to the planned talks because of her known stand of not recognising Dr Ruto’s presidency.
“I cannot share a platform with Ruto and his regime. The last time I checked, Azimio had not recognised his win and we challenged him to open the servers. I would not be part of it (joining Ruto’s government). Even the positions that Nadco brings, I salivate for none,” Ms Karua said.
Mr Odinga has further convened a Parliamentary Group meeting for his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party on Tuesday to ratify its decision to back the talks.
National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed said ODM will take a stand on the talks during the meeting.
“I can confirm that we have a meeting on Tuesday. Messages have been sent to members already,” Mr Mohamed said.
ODM’s Central Management Committee unanimously approved engagement with Dr Ruto at its Friday meeting.
The meeting comes amid pressure from Mr Odinga’s Azimio coalition partners to pull out of the planned national dialogue.
Azimio co-principals — Ms Karua, Mr Musyoka, DAP-K boss Eugene Wawamlwa and Kanu led by former Baringo senator Gideon Moi — have all rejected the fresh round of talks.
Just like during the Nadco talks, the new round of national conversation is once again threatening the relationship between Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta. The latter is the chairman of Azimio’s top decision-making organ – the Azimio Council and also Jubilee party leader.
Mr Odinga’s position is that the talks are key in helping solve issues raised by the youth during the recent anti-government protests sparked by opposition to the Finance Bill, 2024.
Mr Kioni told Sunday Nation that following wide consultations Jubilee would not engage in any dialogue.
“We are just from the National Dialogue Committee talks where we didn’t get anything and we cannot rush to another dialogue. We don’t even know what the fresh talks are about. We’ll be making a fool of ourselves if we join the talks,” Mr Kioni said.
“I’m heading to a funeral in Butere (Kakamega County) and I’m sure in the course of the day we shall have all these discussions with the Jubilee party leader. Tomorrow we should be able to give a position. I have already engaged Jubilee members and their position is ‘no’ dialogue,” said Mr Kioni.
Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga are jointly pushing for a national dialogue under the proposed National Multi-Sectoral Forum that will be held for six days, starting tomorrow.
Mr Musyoka, who chaired his party’s National Executive Council (NEC) meeting on Wednesday, said Azimio will petition Mr Odinga against the talks.
“We will tell him that Kenyans do not want dialogue. We do not want to be seen to be sanitising a regime that has failed,” Mr Musyoka said.
Mr Odinga is said to be torn between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Moi. The two are reportedly waging a silent war to frustrate any rapprochement between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga — who has been seen to be gravitating towards the President after announcing his interest in the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC). The elections will be held next year.
“There is nothing wrong with dialogue, but there is a need to sort out issues raised during the protests. Dialogue is secondary,” Mr Wainaina said, adding that he is out of the country and is yet to discuss the matter with his chairman.
He, however, said together with Wiper, as the pioneer members of the defunct One Kenya Alliance (OKA), they still share similar views and will not engage in any dialogue convened by Dr Ruto.
“Our position in Azimio is the same as Kalonzo Musyoka’s and it is a loud call to oppose dialogue and to embrace action to address issues raised by the Kenyan youth,” added Mr Wainaina.
Mr Kenyatta’s determination to stop a Raila-Ruto camaraderie is said to be the reason the former prime minister has been seen to be blowing hot and cold lately.
Mr Kenyatta is said to be opposed to Mr Odinga taking up the AUC job that brings him close to the President, and which has seen ODM go easy on Dr Ruto.
Sources in Azimio told the Sunday Nation that the ex-president had even invited Mr Odinga to at least two meetings outside the country at which he has persuaded the former PM to abandon the quest for the AUC post and concentrate on Kenya.
According to sources, at both meetings, one in Europe and another in the Middle East, Mr Kenyatta told Mr Odinga that he was working on mobilising Central Kenya to make him “president in 2027 or even earlier.”
“At a recent meeting in a foreign country, Uhuru is said to have told Raila that Kenya needs him and that he should not go for the AUC seat. He argued further that with the evolving situation, he would help Raila become president in 2027,” another source revealed.
“Dr Ruto has said he is ready to provide a venue that is convenient other than State House which is a restricted place. This is the best time to confront him with issues affecting the country,” Mr Kaluma said.
“We need dialogue, the clamour for ‘Ruto must go’ can only happen in 2027. Our constitution is so strong, it cannot permit a coup,” he added.
Close associates of Mr Odinga have dismissed those asking Mr him to pull out of the talks. They questioned how Mr Kenyatta could help the ODM leader become president in 2027 when he could not do so in 2022.
Saboti MP Caleb Amisi questioned Mr Kenyatta’s support for Mr Musyoka for the top seat in 2027, yet he did not deliver for Mr Odinga, who was more popular, when he served as president.
Some of Mr Odinga’s allies see Mr Kenyatta’s moves as a scheme to keep Mr Odinga around to fight his wars with Dr Ruto.
Mr Kenyatta has also pushed Mr Odinga to stay away from the troubles facing Dr Ruto, arguing that the Kenya Kwanza regime could fall anytime and the ODM leader would be the beneficiary.
During the party’s CMC meeting on Friday, some senior ODM members were sceptical about some of the schemes by their Azimio partners.
“Uhuru’s push is also being assisted by Gideon Moi who recently asked a section of ODM members to ask Raila to keep off a collapsing Ruto regime. These pushes are responsible for Raila's hot and cold statements against Ruto which sometimes have left people wondering what is going on,” a source in ODM said.
Once in a while, Mr Odinga has launched scathing attacks against the government, only to be seen hobnobbing with top officials over the AU mission.
This past week, Mr Odinga was at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre with the President where he spoke cordially about coming together to solve the country’s problems.
The next day he said on his social media accounts that there would be no “handshake”. The following day, ODM’s top decision-making organ approved engagement with Dr Ruto.
There are now fears that the back and forth could have serious consequences for ODM, should some senior members choose to join Dr Ruto’s government on their own. The party remains divided between those who would rather work with Dr Ruto instead of Mr Kenyatta.
