Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary and presidential hopeful Fred Matiang’i is facing an acid test in the three by-elections in Nyamira, his home county.
His advisers are pinning their hopes on the mini-polls as a springboard to demonstrate to the world that ‘the prophet has already received blessings at home’ and is now free to conquer other lands.
The November 27 by-elections in Nyamaiya (West Mugirango), Ekerenyo (North Mugirango) and Nyansiongo (Borabu) will therefore present an opportunity for the politician to demonstrate his dominance over the Gusii nation.
The prevailing 'Gusii nationalism' and support for Dr Matiang'i has spread rapidly in the region, with at least 20 Members of the County Assembly (MCAs) from Kisii and Nyamira recently declining an invitation to the State House from President William Ruto for fear of being labelled traitors.
“Going to State House would have meant betraying our community, which has supported Matiang'i in his bid for the top seat,” said Kisii Central MCA Wilfred Monyenye.
Former Interior CS Fred Matiang'i at a past event.
According to political commentator Dismas Mokua, the by-election outcome will greatly influence Dr Matiang’i’s reputation as he eyes the position of national leader.
Mr Mokua notes that, while by-elections do not necessarily reflect the outcome of general elections, they lay a strong foundation for politicians to demonstrate that they have solidly rallied the Gusii nation behind them.
"Dr Matiang’i has declared his presidential ambitions, and he will actively monitor the by-elections across the nation to establish political patterns. Wins in the by-elections by candidates or parties associated with Dr Matiang’i will bolster his political standing."
"A win will have a magnetic effect, confirming that his presidential candidacy enjoys both national and grassroots support," said Mr Mokua.
He now says that Dr Matiang'i should take inspiration from how the retired President Uhuru Kenyatta used the Kangema and Kajiado North by-elections in 2013 to position himself for the presidency with The National Alliance (TNA) party.
A party associated with the once-powerful minister from the Uhuru era, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), has already presented candidates to fly its flag in the upcoming by-elections.
In Nyamaiya, the UPA has selected Chris Osiemo as its candidate. Mr Osiemo is the brother of Elijah Osiemo, the former Member of the County Assembly (MCA) for the ward, who died in a tragic road accident in 2023.
Mr Jeremiah Ongaro and Mr Kevin Maranga will represent the UPA in Ekerenyo and Nyansiongo wards, respectively.
The Ekerenyo Ward seat fell vacant after Thaddeus Nyabaro was elected as the new County Assembly Speaker, replacing Enock Okero, who was impeached.
The Nyansiongo Ward seat, where Dr Matiang'i hails from, fell vacant after the Nyamira Court nullified Mr Dennis Kebaso's election in 2023 due to manipulated election results.
The three UPA candidates will face stiff competition from other parties, such as the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which are all expected to field candidates.
Equally, other parties in the United Opposition, of which Dr Matiang'i is a member, are expected to field candidates in the Nyamira by-elections.
Despite the interest of other parties in the Nyamira by-elections, all eyes will be on Dr Matiang'i's performance in his political stronghold.
Mr Mokua says that, in order to succeed in his political ambitions, Dr Matiang'i must mobilise resources to guarantee a landslide victory.
He says that a marginal win or loss may expose Dr Matiang'i to reputational liabilities.
"Winning the by-elections for candidates or political parties associated with Dr Matiang'i is a key success factor for the 2027 general elections. If candidates or political parties associated with Dr Matiang'i fail to win the seats in the by-elections, it will stain his presidential candidacy," said Mr Mokua.
Apart from Nyamira, Dr Matiang'i's party, UPA, will field candidates in the following constituencies: Mbeere North (Isaac Muringi), Banisa (Nuridin Dalato), Mumbuini North Ward (Naomi Nzioki), and Narok Town Ward (Erick Ontita).
When asked to comment on the criteria used to select the candidates, UPA national chairman Nyambega Gisesa did not provide a conclusive answer.
When pressed to explain why the United Opposition was fielding candidates against themselves, Mr Gisesa, who is also the Rigoma Ward MCA, said that the United Opposition would make a decision on that for all electoral areas.
