The fight for ODM's Coast stronghold: 2027 realignments shape up

However, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), led by President William Ruto, has intensified efforts to establish itself in the six coastal counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Taita Taveta and Tana River.

A growing rivalry has since emerged between the two parties, despite their cooperation under the broad-based governance arrangement, reflecting Kenya's evolving political landscape that is steadily raising political temperatures across the Coast.

As the ruling party seeks to expand its national footprint, the Coast has become one of its key targets. UDA leaders and aspiring politicians have stepped up engagements with local communities, organised public meetings and positioned themselves as credible alternatives to ODM leaders who have traditionally enjoyed overwhelming support.

The rivalry was evident over the weekend in Likoni Sub-County, where supporters of Likoni MP Mishi Mboko and nominated Senator Miraj Abdillahi clashed. During the confrontation, a man was captured on video drawing a pistol and firing into the air to disperse a group of armed youths.

Ms Mboko accused her opponents of mobilising youths to disrupt her political meetings, urging the public to reject violence and embrace democratic competition.

She also argued that it was unfair for leaders allied to other parties within the broad-based administration to invade constituencies represented by ODM leaders.

"I am not scared of zoning. Let them come. I believe in democracy but let the people of Likoni coexist in a peaceful manner devoid of political sideshows," she added.

UDA's expansion strategy includes fielding candidates in all coastal counties, rejecting proposals that political parties should avoid contesting in their rivals' traditional strongholds.

According to the nominated senator, the incident should serve as a reminder that political differences should not result in unhealthy competition.

"It is not yet the political season. I humbly request all of you to be calm. Let us meet from February next year when we will officially begin the campaigns," said Ms Miraj.

One of the major factors shaping the current political landscape is the broad-based political arrangement between ODM and UDA. Although the agreement was intended to promote national unity, reduce political tensions and encourage cooperation, it has generated mixed reactions among ODM supporters.

At the grassroots, some supporters believe that the partnership has weakened the party's identity and influence in its traditional strongholds.

Nyali MP Mohammed Ali, a key ally of the united opposition, is currently the only elected UDA leader seeking the Mombasa governorship. He is expected to challenge incumbent Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, who was elected on an ODM ticket in 2022 and is serving his first term.

Blurred political distinctions

Although Mr Ali has not officially resigned from UDA, he has increasingly positioned himself among the government's critics and is widely tipped to contest on a Wiper Party ticket. A number of other aspirants are aligned to the broad-based government.

Critics argue that cooperation between ODM and UDA has unintentionally created political space for UDA leaders to establish themselves in areas previously regarded as firmly under ODM's control.

Political analyst Maimuna Mwidau argues that the broad-based arrangement has blurred political distinctions, making it easier for UDA aspirants to campaign freely without encountering significant resistance from voters.

"If UDA has decided to invade ODM territory, then it means something else is happening within the broad-based arrangement. It seems the President was keener on a united ODM rather than a fractured party," she said.

While addressing residents in Kilifi County recently, UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar dismissed calls for zoning, insisting that no region belongs exclusively to any political party. Mr Omar has also declared his interest in contesting the Mombasa governorship.

"Voters will have their say in 2027. No region has been reserved for anyone," said Mr Omar.

A similar situation is evident in Kilifi County. Speaking on Sunday, during a women's empowerment event in Kaloleni, Governor Gideon Mung'aro said Coast leaders had unanimously endorsed President William Ruto for a second term.

He also revealed plans for a major political rally at the Coast where regional leaders are expected to outline their political direction ahead of the next election. His main challenger is former Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa, who is seeking support from the national government.

"Hon Raila Odinga left us in the broad-based government. We will stay there and make sure we form the next government," said Mr Mung'aro.

Members of ODM aligned to the Linda Mwananchi faction have been among the strongest critics of the current political arrangement. They argue that while the broad-based government may benefit individual leaders at the national level, it risks weakening ODM's long-term support at the Coast.

According to the group, the party could gradually lose its loyal supporters if it fails to clearly distinguish its policies and political agenda from those of the ruling party.

Also read: PS Fikirini speaks: I’ll cooperate with police

Political analysts warn that unless ODM deliberately safeguards its visibility and grassroots support, the party could face growing competition from UDA as the 2027 elections draw closer.

Supporters of the broad-based arrangement, however, argue that political cooperation should be viewed as a strategy for promoting national stability and development rather than as a threat to political competition.

Meanwhile, UDA leaders continue to capitalise on the changing political environment by strengthening their presence across the Coast. They have intensified engagement with youth and women's groups, business communities, religious organisations and local opinion leaders in an effort to broaden their support base.

Their campaigns largely focus on economic empowerment, infrastructure development, employment opportunities and increased government investment, issues that resonate with many residents grappling with economic hardship.

The Coast presents an attractive political opportunity for UDA because of its strategic importance in national politics. A stronger performance in the region would not only expand the ruling party's electoral base but also demonstrate its ability to compete successfully in areas traditionally dominated by the opposition.

For ODM, however, the challenge extends beyond defending its traditional support base. The party must also respond to the expectations of younger voters, who are increasingly driven by issue-based politics rather than historical political loyalties.

Political analysts also believe the Coast is entering a more competitive political era where no party can automatically count on victory.

"The success of ODM is to retain the unity which Raila Odinga left because the outfit is stronger and more powerful when united. This is likely to depend on sustained grassroots mobilisation, effective leadership and the ability to respond to the needs of the people," added Ms Mwidau.

Meanwhile, the opposition led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is banking on what they term as unresolved historical injustices to sway voters to their side. According to Mr Gachagua, the Coast region is still facing economic marginalisation, loss of control over strategic resources and public institutions, exclusion from jobs, and land grabbing.

At a meeting on Monday with Mijikenda leaders in Kwale, the Democracy for the Citizens Party leader added that there is also unequal distribution of business opportunities, drug trafficking, human rights abuses against young people, and political domination by an influential family which affect the people’s prosperity.

Mr Gachaugua met in Kwale with a delegation led by former minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere after briefly halting his much publicised 45-day consultations at his Wamunyoro home in Nyeri County.

“Never again shall they go to the national negotiating table through brokers. I have assured them of solidarity from their cousins in Western Kenya, Lower Eastern, Kisii, Nyanza, the Mountain, and the whole country, since we are one people,” he stated.

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