The United Opposition is grappling with its most severe test yet, a brewing fight for supremacy between Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s loyalists and a resurgent Fred Matiang’i camp, exposing the deep fissures beneath its veneer of unity.
Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader, Mr Gachagua’s recent declaration that Mr Musyoka is the opposition’s “best bet” has ignited fresh tensions and thrown coalition dynamics into sharp focus.
Mr Gachagua cites Mr Musyoka’s 15-year experience of attempting to unseat incumbent governments, and his perceived ability to draw the Orange Democratic Party (ODM) into the opposition alliance.
The United Opposition — which includes Wiper, DCP, Martha Karua’s People’s Liberation Party, Democratic Party of Justin Muturi , Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee, Eugene Wamalwa’s Democratic Action Party (DAP-K) and Peter Munya’s Party of National Unity (PNU) — was formed on the premise of numerical strength, shared grievances against the Kenya Kwanza administration, and the urgency of fielding a single presidential candidate.
But the coalition is, by design, an assembly of strong-willed political barons with competing regional interests.
It is, however, Mr Gachagua’s recent endorsement of Mr Musyoka that appeared to have rattled the opposition outfit, leading to two parallel meetings last Thursday ahead of the Jamhuri Day celebrations.
Three key principals – Dr Matiang’i, Ms Karua and Mr Munya, as well as the coalition’s spokesperson, Dr Mukhisa Kituyi — were conspicuously absent during a press briefing at the DAP-K headquarters on Thursday.
Mr Wamalwa, who read the joint statement on behalf of the principals, dismissed claims of cracks.
United Opposition leaders after meeting in Nairobi to chart the way forward for opposition unity.
Photo credit: Pool
“You remember when we started out on January 27, Gachagua and Kalonzo were here at the press briefing, but Matiang’i wasn't. He sent Senator Richard Onyonka. Today, he has sent Senator Gloria Orwoba… treat the claims as rumours. We are united and focused on our goal,” he said.
However, just hours after the United Opposition’s statement, another communiqué was issued by Dr Matiang’i’s wing that skipped the presser, complete with photos taken at a different location.
In an interview with Sunday Nation , Ms Karua said that she was not aware of any arrangement that declared Mr Musyoka as their flag bearer. However, she said that the competition was healthy.
“Personally, I am not aware of the arrangement,” she said of Mr Gachagua’s endorsement of Mr Musyoka. “But any member or members of the United Opposition have the freedom of choice and preference. A common stand will be developed and made public as the election nears. For now, I and others are growing our brands and viability as happens in competitive spaces in a democratic race.”
Ms Karua’s statement underscores the new reality that each principal is building individual capital ahead of negotiations. But while that is a normal precursor in coalition politics, analysts say, the public nature of internal disagreements risks weakening the brand before it stabilises.
Within Mr Musyoka’s camp, there is a sense of confidence — but also heightened sensitivity to perceived interference.
Key lieutenants interpret the widening debate on the coalition’s flag bearer as part of a broader plan to destabilise Mr Musyoka’s growing momentum.
Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, one of Mr Musyoka’s strongest defenders, frames the unfolding tensions as deliberate sabotage by their detractors.
“There will be a lot of efforts by our detractors to divide the United Opposition because it poses the greatest threat to the survival of the Ruto regime,” he told
United Opposition leaders, led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (center), DAP-K Party leader Eugene Wamalwa (left) and Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka (right), address the media at SKM command center in Nairobi on November 3, 2025.
Photo credit: Lucy Wanjiru | Nation Media Group
He said that the coalition will remain intact and predicted that all leaders will be called upon to make sacrifices for the sake of the country.
“We know that we shall have a single presidential candidate to defeat President Ruto. That candidate will be the one agreed upon by all member parties. If the parties agree on Kalonzo Musyoka, I see no problem with that. For now, let our leaders speak freely. Out of their speeches, we shall be better guided in managing our coalition affairs,” he said.
Mr Wambua added that the noise coming from Nairobi and Mombasa is part of the “storming stage” of consensus-building, where everyone presents a wish list before a common position is taken.
But the loudest pushback to the idea of early endorsements has come from Jubilee Party, which appears internally torn between coalition participation and independent rebuilding.
Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni has distanced the party from “boardroom decisions” on the United Opposition’s flag bearer or zoning.
“In Jubilee, our clarion call is, ‘let the people decide.’ As secretary-general of Jubilee, I have not seen a document with a candidate. It is still too early. These decisions are best made a few days before an election,” he said.
“The decision on who becomes flag bearer must be made by the people. It cannot be a result of a boardroom meeting or just two parties… Raila (Odinga) died fighting for multiparty democracy. Whatever the party, it is allowed to have its time and space in Kenya.”
Mr Kioni also rejected attempts to zone Nairobi, saying Jubilee will field candidates across the country. His sentiments did not sit well with leaders from Wiper and DCP, who accused Jubilee of “speaking from both sides of the mouth.”
United Opposition leaders (from left) Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa converse during the burial of JM Kariuki’s third wife, Terry Kariuki in Gilgil, Nakuru County on November 11, 2025.
Photo credit: Boniface Mwangi | Nation Media Group
“The problem with Jubilee is that it has one leg in the opposition and one leg in government,” said Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo. “They should negotiate instead of forcing their way. Mr Kioni and company have been behaving erratically. They even lost all their MPs to Ruto.”
“Nothing has been concluded. It’s a question of what you’re bringing to the table. You will only harvest what you have planted.”
United Opposition leaders (from left) Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa speak to the media at the SKM Command Centre in Nairobi on November 26, 2025.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
Mr Maanzo, if Jubilee fails to negotiate properly, suspicions that it is a “project” might be confirmed.
As Mr Musyoka’s camp builds momentum, the faction gravitating around Dr Matiang’i is increasingly vocal about perceived interference from within — particularly from Mr Gachagua.
Kitutu Chache South MP Anthony Kibagendi, a key ally of Dr Matiang’i, blamed Mr Gachagua for prematurely triggering succession wars.
“I have worked with Rigathi (Mr Gachagua) longer than most of these opposition leaders,” Mr Kibagendi told Sunday Nation. “He hasn’t mastered the art of power. He is reckless in how he communicates, lays all his cards on the table and has little political emotional intelligence.”
He argued that Mr Gachagua is obsessed with controlling Mt Kenya and Nairobi politics at the expense of national strategy.
“Rigathi has become the biggest impediment to the unity of the opposition. He wants to dictate how everyone should operate, making Kalonzo look like his lapdog,” the MP said.
Mr Kibagendi warned that if care is not taken, the coalition risks walking straight into President Ruto’s trap.
“The time isn’t right to name the flag bearer. Let everyone campaign individually, and sometimes jointly. Thereafter, a technical team can be formed to develop a nomination formula. You see WSR (Dr Ruto) is busy creating fake perceptions with by-election wins… engaging polling firms to shape public thought, while Rigathi is getting agitated that some presidential candidates are going to Mt Kenya without his permission,” the MP said.
His comments reveal an emerging perception that Mr Musyoka’s camp and Mr Gachagua’s influence are merging—possibly at the expense of a broader, more inclusive structure.
Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, a senior figure in Mr Musyoka’s circle, said Mr Gachagua’s endorsement is welcome but must be managed delicately.
“Those of us behind Kalonzo are rejoicing over the statement because we believe in him… But among the principals, some may not be comfortable. It’s good for leaders to exercise restraint so that some remarks aren’t misconstrued as the coalition’s position,” Mr Mwangangi said.
On Mr Musyoka’s attractiveness beyond his base, Homa Bay Senator Moses Kajwang’ said that the people of Nyanza region — predominantly ODM supporters — have no problem with the Wiper leader. However, he said, there is reservation “with some of his friends,” in an apparent reference to Mr Gachagua.
Mr Musyoka was the running mate of former ODM leader, Raila Odinga, during the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections. He appears keen to woo Raila’s bastions following his death on October 15 while receiving treatment in India.
At the same time, DAP-K is grappling with internal rivalry between party leader Mr Wamalwa and his deputy, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya. The tension has diminished DAP-K’s voice within the larger coalition, even as Secretary-General Eseli Simiyu dismisses succession talk.
“Those are rumours,” he said. “I can’t respond to rumours.”
The wrangles have made DAP-K more cautious, making the party unable to articulate a clear position on the opposition flagbearer.
On the other hand, DP leader Mr Muturi is keen to avoid blame after a contentious by-election performance.
Mr Muturi responded to claims that Mr Gachagua’s DCP “tried to help” the DP candidate Newton Kariuki (Karish) during the Mbeere North by-election, in vain.
“I have no comment. Success has many owners, unlike loss. The United Opposition had a joint candidate,” he said.
Historically, Kenyan opposition coalitions — Narc, Cord, Nasa and Azimio — have gone through similar turbulence before stabilising at the negotiation table.
Advocate Chris Omore said that the battle between a Musyoka-led succession and a Matiang’i-led alternative speaks to unresolved ideological, regional and strategic tensions in the outfit.
