The centre of gravity within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has shifted, and all eyes are now on Dr Oburu Oginga, the Senator for Siaya.
Once a quiet power broker operating in the shadows of his younger brother, the late Raila Odinga, the lawmaker has emerged as the central authority guiding the party through its most delicate transition since its formation.
As factional debates simmer within ODM, party leader Dr Oginga has drawn a red line, asserting that if the party goes it alone in 2027, he will be on the ballot.
ODM has been buoyed by a recent Tifa poll that ranked it as the most popular party, placing its support at 20 per cent, followed by President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16 per cent and Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party at 11 per cent.
However, another poll by Infotrak ranked ODM second with 19 per cent, behind UDA’s 23 per cent, while Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) polled 6 per cent, ahead of Jubilee at 5 per cent.
Dr Oginga says ODM has three options: enter a coalition with President Ruto’s UDA, forge new political partnerships, or contest the next election independently.
President William Ruto and ODM party leader Oburu Oginga at Raila Odinga Stadium in Homa Bay Town during a sports tournament dubbed Genowa Governor’s Cup on December 28, 2025.
Photo credit: George Odiwuor | Nation Media Group
That decision, he argues, must be made this year, not in 2027, warning that delay would plunge the party into uncertainty and factional brinkmanship that could weaken its electoral machinery.
“We have stated categorically that we shall go to the next election as a coalition with other partners, and if we don’t agree, we can go it alone as a party,” Dr Oginga said in a New Year interview on Nam Lolwe FM.
“We have three options: continue as broad-based, go it alone, or join new partners. These decisions must be made this year. 2027 will be for campaigns.”
But it is Dr Oginga’s interpretation of ODM’s internal rules — and his own political future — that is likely to provoke the most intense debate.
If ODM opts to contest the 2027 election as a standalone party, he says, there will be no open presidential contest within its ranks.
“If we are to go it alone as a party, let people not bring debates and chest-thumping about vying,” he said. “If you want to be an ODM presidential candidate, you must first remove me as party leader. Our constitution states that the party leader is the automatic presidential candidate.”
“If we go it alone, I am the party leader and therefore the presidential candidate. I will be on the ballot, and I will rely on the support of ODM members.”
Siaya Senator and ODM Party leader Oburu Oginga.
Photo credit: Kevin Odit | Nation Media Group
As the party grappled with questions of leadership, unity and direction ahead of 2027, senior figures moved quickly to consolidate authority around Dr Oginga, confirming his position on October 16, the day Raila’s body was repatriated to Kenya.
Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, a former ODM national chairperson, has since made it clear that the party’s future alliances and strategic posture now rest squarely with Dr Oginga and its internal organs.
Mr Mbadi has dismissed claims that ODM is drifting, describing the current turbulence as a natural post-transition phase following the exit of a towering political figure.
Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury and Economic Planning John Mbadi .
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
He insists that ODM’s constitution vests final authority in the party leader — a position now held by Dr Oginga — making him the sole arbiter of coalition talks and political direction.
That position has been reinforced by Raila’s widow, Ida Odinga, and senior leaders including Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, who have publicly urged respect for Dr Oginga’s leadership.
Together, their voices have cemented his status not merely as a caretaker but as the new power centre, tasked with holding ODM together, safeguarding Raila’s legacy and steering the party towards 2027.
According to Mr Mbadi, ODM is not in crisis but in a phase of realignment, one that is already stabilising as internal consultations gather pace.
“Our constitution is clear: the party leader is the only person mandated to negotiate any arrangement, whether coalition or political direction,” Mr Mbadi said. “Others may give views, but the final word rests with the party leader.”
As questions swirled online and within political circles over ODM’s leadership, Ida Odinga moved decisively to settle the matter.
Speaking in Bondo on December 6, 2025, during the burial of Raila’s sister Beryl Odinga, she was emphatic that both the family and the party recognise Dr Oginga as ODM’s legitimate leader.
“In our family, Oburu is the head,” she said. “Beyond the family, there is ODM, and the people of ODM have spoken. The party leader is Oburu.”
Ida Odinga, the widow of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, addresses mourners at the family home in Karen on October 15, 2025.
Photo credit: Francis Nderitu | Nation Media Group
Her intervention was significant — not just emotionally, but politically. In ODM, the Odinga family has long been inseparable from the party’s identity, and her remarks effectively shut down speculation at a critical moment.
Mr Wandayi echoed those sentiments, calling for unity and respect around Dr Oginga’s leadership.
“Here in Luo Nyanza, all political pilgrimages end at the Odinga home,” he said. “When Raila left us prematurely, Oburu took over the leadership, and he must be accorded respect.”
“Baba had a dream for our community. The only lasting tribute we can pay to Raila — and now Beryl — is unity.”
Since Raila’s death, ODM — once synonymous with his name — has been forced into an unfamiliar transition. At the heart of this phase stands Dr Oginga, the seasoned senator, elder statesman and custodian of a powerful political lineage.
At 82, he has lived through Kenya’s entire post-independence political arc — from his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s defiant nationalism to Raila’s populist opposition politics. Never before has his role been as consequential.
Following Raila’s passing, ODM formally affirmed Oburu as party leader, placing on him a triple burden: family patriarch, community anchor and political stabiliser.
One of his most delicate tasks has been safeguarding the broad-based government arrangement between ODM and President Ruto’s UDA, forged months before Raila’s death.
“Let’s stick to where Raila left us,” he said. “He left us in the broad-based government with President Ruto until 2027.”
"I have lost my best friend", Oburu Oginga pays tribute to his brother Raila in Bondo
By virtue of his position, Dr Oginga has become the bridge between ODM and the Kenya Kwanza administration — a role requiring tact, restraint and strategic patience.
In recent weeks, he has quietly consulted senior ODM figures and government leaders, signalling a measured, pragmatic approach.
Analysts say his deep understanding of statecraft and party politics makes him well suited to manage transition.
Despite consensus around his leadership, questions about succession persist. Younger politicians are positioning themselves as potential heirs, but Dr Oginga appears unperturbed.
“Leaders emerge naturally, like mushrooms after rain,” he says.
He dismisses concerns about his age, insisting ODM is rich in capable leaders.
“Any of the existing ODM leaders has the capacity to lead,” he says, noting that even Raila emerged organically rather than by appointment.
Inside ODM with Oburu Oginga
At a recent Central Management Committee meeting, ODM reaffirmed its commitment to the broad-based government until 2027, guided by a 10-point agenda for peace and stability, a statement read by Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna.
Party insiders say Dr Oginga’s leadership may serve as a cooling-off period before a national delegates’ conference elects a substantive leader, likely early next year.
“He is managing mourning, protecting the legacy and preparing ODM for generational handover,” Mr Omore says. “For now, he is the de facto power centre.”
“Nobody can sell ODM as long as I am at the helm,” he said. “ODM is too expensive to sell.”
On allegations that former President Uhuru Kenyatta was using money to divide ODM, he said he had no evidence.
“I am not aware. I have no evidence to say Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta wants to divide ODM,” he said, adding that he would seek clarification directly.
