The year 1994 was pivotal for 49-year-old Raila Odinga . His father died in January, triggering a political and personal turmoil for a man who fit like a round peg in a square hole.
The death of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga was a deadly blow to the opposition, which was still reeling from the 1992 election loss.
Like the Byzantines, they regarded Jaramogi as the Hagia Sophia church, trusting a prophecy that when infidels attacked the church, an angel would descend, sword in hand, to restore the Roman Empire. But no angel came; Constantinople fell.
Instead of salvation from political oblivion, Jaramogi went to be with the Lord, and the scattering of interests truly commenced.
It was without question that Jaramogi’s parliamentary seat would be inherited by his elder son, Dr Oburu Oginga. As the natural heir to the throne, Oburu was quickly endorsed, and his ascension was expected to proceed smoothly.
Raila, who was the Ford-Kenya Director of Elections at the time, played a leading role in his elder brother’s campaign. His favourite subject, resisting Kanu, quickly became the main focus of the campaigns.
He publicly advised his elder brother, Dr Oburu, not to entertain Kanu’s overtures, insisting on several occasions he commits to Ford Kenya. As a former high-ranking civil servant, Dr Oburu seemed too close to the regime, and his body language hinted he might have considered being “bought” by Kanu. His brother would have none of it.
ODM party leader Oburu Oginga addresses the public rally at Kamukunji grounds in Kibera, Nairobi County on January 14, 2026.
Photo credit: DENNIS ONSONGO | NATION
Two years earlier, Raila had, in fact, scuttled a “handshake” discussion between his father and former President Daniel arap Moi.
Support a single candidate
The story goes that, after opposition figures failed to reach an agreement to support a single candidate, Ford disintegrated. The leading figures, Jaramogi, Kenneth Matiba, and Mwai Kibaki, couldn’t find a workable arrangement and entered a zone of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
In this situation, Kanu tried to persuade Jaramogi to be Moi’s running mate in that election, a proposal the elderly man was seriously considering. When he found out about the discussions, Raila used tricks to derail the whole plan before it gained momentum.
It seemed that working with Kanu at that particular time was a red line for Raila. Therefore, he weaponised it at any given moment.
There was another by-election that year, the Mathare parliamentary seat had become vacant. Ford Kenya fronted Fredrick Masinde.
It is said that Masinde suffered from the blinding Kanu lights issue. He was inconsistent as a candidate, a situation that created jitters among senior opposition leaders.
Days before the elections, Masinde withdrew from the race, citing unspecified reasons. It was widely believed that the ruling party had “incentivised” him sufficiently. His party, led by Raila, could not have allowed this; they exerted pressure on their candidate, who then rejoined the race hours later.
Mathare by-election candidate Fredrick Masinde and Lang'ata MP Raila Odinga campaign in Kasarani.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
New electoral map for Nairobi
The events of Mathare and Raila’s warnings against dalliance with Kanu fully demonstrated the dangers for all those involved.
In the subsequent by-elections, Ford-K's fracturing notwithstanding, a candidate emerged after significant influence from Raila Odinga. He emphasised to the party the need to change tack against a marauding Kanu that had the resources and the will to hunt down every opponent.
Mr Ochieng Mbeo’s campaign was like no other; in fact, one might have confused who the candidate was during the campaigns.
Raila led the on-the-ground mobilisation, but it was through his messaging that he shifted the political currents. He found words that started a new language, one that began to describe urban poverty to those who do not listen to those deep in the slums of Nairobi.
Rent, he said, was excessively high and unfair; the folks in the slums knew this all too well, but until now, no one had raised it as a concern. At that time, this speech was considered dangerous, and his opponents sought to curb this form of politics, which threatened to disrupt harmony among peace-loving Kenyans.
In the face of broad-based criticism, Raila remained defiant. He went further, saying: “Those who pay rent were more than landlords.”
The dare appeared to have been successful. There were violent clashes between two groups of political goons; Jeshi la Mzee and, and a new one, Kamjesh . The groups that consisted of young people from the slums, who felt marginalised, were aligned to politicians. Kamjesh found Raila’s message encouraging and took steps to defend him against Kanu’s Jeshi la Mzee.
Mr Ochieng Mbeo won the Mathare seat by a landslide in an election that had undertones of a redefined electoral map for Nairobi. It is not clear at this point if the political elite realised that the ground beneath was shifting.
Events unfolded swiftly. Ford Kenya quickly descended into chaos, with fierce supremacy battles. On one hand was Jaramogi’s preferred successor, Michael Kijana Wamalwa, against other opposition leaders who were eyeing the position.
Raila fancied his chances against Kijana Wamalwa. The bickering over methods, delegates, and entitlement ensured the divorce in Ford Kenya was messy. The push and pull led to Raila’s departure from Ford Kenya in acrimonious circumstances, but it was his effort to become the leading political voice in Luo Nyanza that highlighted his political acumen.
Mr James Aggrey Orengo, a talented young lawyer, articulate and who had Jaramogi’s ears, was regarded as the successor and spokesperson for the community. The less the community debated this, the better it seemed for everyone involved.
While Raila staked claim to the position, the Luo Council of Elders, Ker, routinely cautioned anyone against going against the community’s wishes. It was God’s case, no appeal.
Raila found himself fighting shadows. Unlike in the Ford Kenya row, which ended up in elections of sorts; there was no mechanism for that in this community spokesperson battle.
The Luo Council of Elders held a press conference in Kisumu to address the issue of transition. On this day, however, they hadn’t anticipated what lay ahead, because at some point they had to run for dear life.
While recounting this moment, Raila— with a hearty laugh — said a few young men were all the encouragement needed. “It was the last we heard from them,” he said while tearing with a laugh.
From left: Ms Charity Ngilu, Mr Wamalwa Kijana, Mr Mwai Kibaki, Mr Raila Odinga, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka and Prof George Saitoti during the signing of the Narc MoU in 2002.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
A few weeks later, a new Council of Elders emerged. This one seemed to be in harmony with the resurging son of the soil, who was busy building his political influence. The elders endorsed Raila as the community's spokesperson, and he never looked back until his demise on October 15, 2025, in India while receiving treatment. What goes unsaid is that the collapse of Ford Kenya was predictable. It was as sure as the sun rising.
Political thought within the party was influenced by the history, energy, and connections of the old man Jaramogi. When he passed away, the party’s fortunes also diminished with him. And the political disputes in the three years leading up to the 1997 General Election were mostly trivial.
Either by chance or design, the lessons that Raila learnt in the Mathare by-election, and the challenge he mounted for the Luo leadership, made him a natural successor of his father.
Jaramogi’s politics resonated with history and unfulfilled national dreams. In his book, Not Yet Uhuru , he wrote, about his role as a participant in discussions and a representative at the table. Jaramogi’s voice articulated a collective expression of failures in self-rule.
But 1997 was a very different year, with a demographic shift. It was clear that the Kenyan public was increasingly struggling with the failures of history as a political platform. However, that debate was starting to wear thin, given that it didn’t produce victory the 1992 elections, despite the ruling party, Kanu, being accused of election theft.
And, so in his new outfit NDP, the National Development Party, with a tractor (Tinga) as a party symbol, Raila went about changing the platform for the opposition.
With a campaign focused on the urban poor, NDP pledged rent control in the slums, new housing and amenities, and opportunities for young people who had been overlooked by the system.
For the urban poor, this was revolutionary; largely ignored amidst political activity mainly centred on rural areas, this mobilisation was unprecedented in the country.
Raila came third in that election of 1997, claiming 11 per cent of the votes, not a mean feat for a first-timer.
The election results were not what Mwai Kibaki expected; he came second and quickly dismissed the results, accusing Kanu of massive electoral theft and irregularities.
Before Kibaki could mount a coherent response to Moi’s final win, Raila crossed the line and began discussions about joining Kanu. His NDP had wiped out Ford Kenya's gains from its stronghold, which included a solid 31 Members of Parliament, with victories in the city signalling a shift in tone and voter sentiment. Raila and his NDP wasted no time in endorsing Moi, undermining opposition protests before they even began.
The opposition would never forgive him for this. However, Raila was on a path that was transforming him, and change Kenya’s politics forever.
When Russian author Anton Chekhov said; “I may not have amazing victories, but I can amaze you with defeats that I came out of alive,” he might have had Raila Odinga’s political journey in mind.
Raila and his NDP sought to transform an electoral loss into a victory. By joining Kanu, he became a Cabinet minister and gained access to State apparatus, which he used to travel around the country, to Kanu’s detriment.
But what changed in the political world was something far too significant and not visible to anyone.
See, Raila had built a reputation as Kenya's most anti-Kanu politician. In fact, he was seen as an extremist, even more left-wing than his father, Jaramogi. These views brought him many problems. He claimed then, that he would sacrifice his life to overthrow the Kanu regime.
So, his joining Kanu went against everything anyone knew about him and his politics. The backlash was intense. But Raila learnt a crucial lesson that would shape his politics: “You don’t inherit the flock of a church; you build a followership”, he said.
By a flip of a coin, communities that previously lacked a clear voice suddenly found an articulate spokesperson. He began adopting a tone that addressed the land issue at the Coast. He returned to Western Kenya to mend a strained relationship, fractured by the dissolution of Ford-K and conflict with Michael Kijana Wamalwa.
In books written on his behalf, Raila claimed that he genuinely believed President Daniel Moi had reconciled with him and regarded him as a true successor. But he was outsmarted by the “professor of politics”.
Moi's choice of Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2002 presidential election led to the fall of Kanu. I many respects, Moi thought that he had tamed a “wild Raila Odinga.” However, he discovered a harsh truth, that even a domesticated lion can turn on you. The man who had entered Kanu with 31 MPs suddenly left with three times the number. The way of the political universe is change. Nothing is fixed, nothing is definable.
Defection became a permanent part of Raila’s politics. Overall, he switched sides more than six times. In fact, the lasting lesson Raila learnt was that empires are run through compromise. And, he proceeded to build his political empire on similar principles.
Every time this happened, the “Bishop” gained more followers; “gather all scatter none,” was a campaign mantra he adopted.
Raila was a child of the new, disenchanted country and probably did not realise how difficult it was to fill godlike king shoes.
His courtyard was filled. As expected, there were honest and grounded men. There were also “useful idiots” and con artists. He dined with ideologues and deal-makers. He embraced them all. Until his death, they firmly believed that he belonged to their camp. Remember, just like Alexander the Great, the man’s mission was to gather, and he spared no time to sort the harvest.
A reasonable criticism is that the political outfit he established 20 years ago — the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) —would need to confront the artificial hill of garbage built up over time. If history can be relied on as a compass, it took three years for Ford-Kenya wrangles to finally end after Jaramogi’s death; it became a shell and has since been a heavy briefcase party with history.
ODM’s future is Ford Kenya’s history
Managing the political system designed by Raila Odinga requires skill. Since much of Kenya’s politics is disorganised and self-serving, occasional crashes are inevitable. The collapse of this political dynasty is messy and noisy. The public airing of the dirt will continue because the divorce must be final. And so the end of ODM will come, not with a bang but a whimper.
