“Where the tree falls, there it shall lie until Judgment takes its course.” Culture’s lyrics have never been more accurate. Raila Odinga was that tree — towering, casting shade over Nairobi politics for decades. Now that he’s gone, ODM faces political judgment and gravity in Nairobi. The numbers tell a stark story.
Raila’s political career reads like a spreadsheet for the ambitious. In 1997, he ran for president and scored 667,886 votes, roughly ten percent of the total. In 1992, he wisely stepped aside and endorsed Mwai Kibaki, picking his moments. By 2007, he had forged ODM into a formidable national coalition, cutting across ethnic and regional lines.
In Nairobi, Raila had mastered the arithmetic of votes. Voters with roots in Mt Kenya typically make up more than 40 per cent of the city electorate. Raila’s strategy was simple but elegant: win the rest, plus a slice of liberal Mt Kenya voters. It worked spectacularly. In 2007, he beat Mwai Kibaki in Nairobi by 11.8 per cent, securing five of seven parliamentary seats. In 2013, he narrowly edged out Uhuru Kenyatta, but his coalition won only seven seats while Mt Kenya-aligned parties took ten. In 2017, his win improved slightly, claiming eight seats, but his opponents still captured nine. Then came 2022: Raila defeated William Ruto decisively in the city, and the Azimio coalition — backed by a portion of Mt Kenya votes — swept 12 of 17 parliamentary seats in the capital.
The pattern is clear: bigger presidential margins in Nairobi produce more parliamentary seats. Small margins are dangerous because Mt Kenya votes spread unevenly across constituencies and can flip seats like a deck of cards. Nairobi is basically a spreadsheet with emotions.
Now, ODM faces three looming threats in Nairobi. First is the arithmetic of the mountain. Roughly more than 40 per cent of Nairobi’s electorate comes from Mt Kenya. If that bloc unites against the current ODM leadership and is joined by Ukambani and Gusii voters, anti-ODM support could soar. That could be a tsunami.
Second, internal splits bite into the party’s core. Faction led by Edwin Sifuna, Babu Owino, and James Orengo, whether big or small, eat away at traditional pro-ODM ethnic blocs in Nairobi. Just 10 per cent of voters lost to internal factionalism is enough to flip constituencies. Add in the possibility of Winnie Odinga entering the fray in support of Sifuna, and suddenly a “Nairobi ODM whitewash” becomes plausible. Politics, after all, is theatre. When lieutenants quarrel on stage, the audience assumes the script has been lost.
Third, put into the equation urban Gen Z and city voters. By-elections in Malava and Mbere North suggest Gen Z may be talkers more than voters. But Nairobi is different. Gen Z exist in numbers, post on social media in real time, and vote in real life. Urban voters, historically, lean toward opposition. From the United States to South Africa, even in Uganda and Turkey, city populations check incumbents. Nairobi’s urban voters are no exception.
ODM seems not to have any. But its partner UDA, a more politically attuned entity, appears to have spotted this arithmetic. The party is concentrating its political effort in Nairobi — rallies, church visits. The latest national government-county cooperation agreement suggests a deliberate strategy to invest in projects and attempt to consolidate influence in the capital.
Will this work? Let us wait and see. But for the ODM Oburu Oginga faction, it must pray that this works. Otherwise, ODM MPs in Nairobi are walking on thin ice.
Parliamentary numbers tell the story: 2007 brought a comfortable margin and majority seats; 2013 and 2017 revealed that slight erosion produced losses; 2022 restored dominance thanks to Azimio’s Mt Kenya tilt. Narrow victories in Nairobi almost always produce parliamentary pain. Politics lies in cruel arithmetic.
And here’s the biblical twist: Peter walked on water and began to sink only when he shifted his eyes from purpose to fear. Nairobi voters are the waves; ODM’s numbers are Peter. Step carefully — or drown.
The tree may have fallen, but the political forest still has plenty of drama. Nairobi loves a show.
