The main gate at Nzoia Sugar Company in Kanduyi constituency Bungoma County.
Kenya’s domestic sugar production fell 27.2 per cent to 551,805 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2025, dealing a blow to long-running efforts to revive an industry that remains mired in supply disruptions, policy uncertainty, and structural weakness.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that output dropped from 758,302 tonnes produced over a similar period in 2024, reversing gains recorded during the brief recovery phase.
The slump pours cold water on President William Ruto’s ambition of turning Kenya into a net sugar exporter by 2027, with the sector now facing stiff regional competition after Kenya exited sugar import safeguards under the Comesa trade bloc earlier this month.
The production decline mirrored a contraction in raw material supply, with sugarcane deliveries to factories falling 27.1 percent to 6.3 million tonnes between January and November 2025, down from 8.7 million tonnes over a similar period in the prior year.
The drop marked a reversal from the supply glut recorded in 2024, when favourable weather conditions and fertiliser subsidies lifted cane output across major growing zones in western Kenya.
Cane delivery quantities started falling in April last year when factories received 398,908 tonnes, down from 715,528 tonnes the previous month, amid disruptions linked to the leasing of State-owned sugar mills to private investors.
Supply disruptions
The contraction in cane supply translated into weaker factory performance, with sugar production sliding to 36,194 tonnes in April, down from 66,595 tonnes in March, and further to 32,760 tonnes in May, which marked the lowest monthly output in nearly two years.
The supply disruptions coincided with a turbulent transition period as four public sugar millers — Nzoia, Chemelil, Muhoroni, and Sony — were handed over to private operators under lease arrangements.
The leasing process drew resistance from workers and farmers, triggered parliamentary scrutiny, and raised concerns over payment delays, transparency, and continuity of cane development programmes.
The latest KNBS data underscores the fragile footing of an industry that has relied on policy protection for more than two decades while struggling to address high production costs and ageing infrastructure.
The Comesa sugar safeguard regime had permitted the import of up to 350,000 tonnes of sugar annually to bridge supply deficits.
With import protection now lifted, local producers face competition from efficient sugar exporters within Comesa, including Egypt, Mauritius, and Zambia.
