Kenya's fertility shift: Why women are having fewer children
A happy family on a drive.
A woman in Embu County is expected to have about two children in her lifetime, while a woman in Mandera is likely to have nearly seven, according to the recently released Kenya Demographic Health Survey 2025-26.
The gap between those two figures tells the story of fertility in Kenya today.
In one generation, Kenya has roughly halved the size of its families. But the decline is slowing. Modern method use has stopped rising, and unmet need has crept up. The 2030 target is 64 per cent modern use, and today it stands at 56 per cent. The target for unmet need is 10 per cent.
The picture differs by region. In parts of northern Kenya, almost no women use a modern method. In parts of Nyanza and the Rift Valley, women use them and still have more children than they want.
According to the Kenya Mini Demographic and Health Survey 2025–26, the national total fertility rate stands at 3.1 children per woman. In 2022, it was 3.4. In 1988–89, it was 6.7. The rate is the average number of children a woman would have by the end of her childbearing years if current birth rates held.
Happy family during lunchtime at a dining table.
The fall has been long. The rate was 4.7 in 1998, 3.9 in 2014 and 3.4 in 2022.
Women are also starting to give birth later. In earlier surveys, births peaked among women aged 20 to 24. Now the peak is among those aged 25 to 29 years, at 161 births per 1,000 women. Among women aged 20 to 24, births fell from 324 per 1,000 in 1988–89 to 157.
Births among girls aged 15 to 19 fell from 153 per 1,000 to 63 over the same period. The share of women aged 15 to 19 who have ever been pregnant dropped from 14.8 per cent in 2022 to 11.9 per cent.
The drop has been steeper in the countryside. Rural women had 5.4 children in 2003 and have 3.6 now, a fall of 1.8. Urban women went from 3.3 to 2.6, a fall of 0.7. A rural woman still has about one more child than an urban woman.
The survey also counts the children women have already had.
Among all women aged 15 to 49, the average is 2.1 children ever born and 2.0 still living. Among currently married women, it is 3.0 children born and 2.9 living.
The numbers climb with age. Women aged 30 to 34 have had 2.7 children on average. By 40 to 44, it is 4.0. Women aged 45 to 49, who have finished childbearing, have had 4.5 children, and 4.2 are alive. Among married women of that age, the figures are 4.8 and 4.5.
About 1 per cent of women aged 45 to 49 have never given birth. About 42 per cent have had five or more children. Today’s rate of 3.1 is well below what that older generation lived.
From the report, a woman with no schooling has 5.4 children. With primary education, it is 3.6; with secondary, 3.0; and with education beyond secondary, 2.7.
Among women aged 40 to 49, the averages are 6.2 children for those with no education, 4.6 for primary, 3.6 for secondary and 2.8 for post-secondary.
Wealth follows the same line. Women in the poorest fifth of households have 4.5 children. Women in the richest fifth have 2.3.
Seven counties have a fertility rate of 5 or more: Mandera at 6.8, Wajir 5.8, Tana River 5.7, Turkana 5.6, Garissa 5.3, West Pokot 5.1 and Samburu 5.0. Marsabit is close behind at 4.9. Thirty-one of the 47 counties are above the national rate of 3.1.
The lowest rates are in Embu at 2.2, Kiambu and Mombasa at 2.3, and Kericho and Nairobi at 2.6. Kirinyaga and Tharaka-Nithi follow at 2.7.
Women aged 40 to 49 in Mandera have had 7.7 children on average. In Wajir, it is 7.5, and in Garissa, 6.8.
Compared with the previous survey, counties in the arid and semi-arid areas have not changed in the numbers because in 2022, Mandera led at 7.7, followed by Wajir at 6.8, Marsabit at 6.3, Samburu at 5.8, Tana River at 5.7 and Garissa at 5.3. West Pokot was 6.9. Nairobi was 2.6.
Against those numbers, Tana River (5.7), Garissa (5.3) and Nairobi (2.6) have not changed. Others have fallen: Mandera from 7.7 to 6.8, West Pokot from 6.9 to 5.1, Wajir from 6.8 to 5.8, Marsabit from 6.3 to 4.9 and Samburu from 5.8 to 5.0.
Contraceptive use explains much of the map.
Modern method use among married women has risen from 32 per cent in 2003 to 56 per cent now. But it has stalled. It was 56.9 per cent in 2022 and is 56.1 per cent today.
The injectables fell from 26.4 per cent in 2014 to 18.7 per cent. Implants rose from 9.9 per cent to 22.8 per cent and are now the most used method.
Unmet need among married women fell from 27 per cent in 2003 to 14 per cent in 2022. It has since crept up to 16 per cent. Total demand for family planning has stayed at 76 per cent. Among all women, unmet need is 11 per cent, against a 2030 national target of 10 per cent. The target for modern use is 64 per cent.
The county figures line up with fertility. Modern method use among married women is highest in Murang’a at 76 per cent, Makueni and Meru at 72, and Kirinyaga at 71. Their fertility rates are 3.4, 3.3, 2.8 and 2.7, respectively.
It is lowest in Mandera, below 1 per cent, Wajir at 1 per cent and Garissa at 5 per cent. Their fertility rates are 6.8, 5.8 and 5.3
Modern method use is 21 per cent among married women with no schooling, against 58 to 60 per cent among all others. Unmet need is 29 per cent among women with no education and 13 per cent among those with education beyond secondary. By county, unmet need among married women is highest in West Pokot at 42 per cent, Turkana at 34 per cent, and Tana River at 29 per cent. It is lowest in Makueni at 4 per cent.
When women were asked the number of children they wanted, the majority mentioned two children per woman, compared with the actual number of 3.1 children per woman.
In Mandera, desired fertility is 6.7 and actual is 6.8. In Garissa, it is 5.2 against 5.3. Women there have about the families they say they want, and almost none use modern contraception.
In Nyamira, Nandi and Bomet, women have 1.1 more children than they say they want. In Kisii, it is 1.0. Modern method use among married women in those counties runs from 51 to 69 per cent.
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