History seems to be repeating itself in Zimbabwe’s tumultuous politics as President Emmerson Mnangagwa gives mixed signals about his retirement plans.
President Mnangagwa, 81, is serving his second and final term in office as per the country’s constitution.
He is supposed to exit the scene in 2028 after serving at the top echelons since the country’s independence in 1980. But growing sentiment in his ruling Zanu-PF is that he should serve two more years after that.
The man nicknamed ‘The Crocodile’ – an animal famed for its stealth and ruthlessness – rose to power in 2017 after a military coup that toppled longtime ruler Robert Mugabe, who had ruled Zimbabwe for 37 years.
President Mnangagwa completed his predecessor’s term before winning a controversial election the following year to begin his first full term.
In August 2023, he won a second term in elections that were condemned by observers as not up to standard, and barely a year after his second term began, questions about his exit or succession have gripped Zimbabwe.
President Mnangagwa has on two occasions this year declared that he will step down when his term ends in 2028. Developments in his party tell a different story.
Ahead of Zanu PF annual conference in October, there have been growing calls within the ruling party to change the country’s constitution to allow President Mnangagwa to extend his stay in office beyond 2028.
Goodwills Masimirembwa, the Zanu PF chairman for Harare, said that although the president had indicated that he would retire at the end of his term, the ruling party’s structures wanted him to stay longer.
Echoing resolutions passed by the party’s 10 provinces ahead of the conference, Mr Masimirembwa gave a glimpse into Zanu PF’s likely game plan.
The ruling party wants the country’s constitution amended to either remove the presidential term limits, or to extend the number of years for each term.
“There’s that window of extending the number of years for each term, or tentatively we can remove the term limit from two to three or scrap the term limits,” Mr Masimirembwa said.
All the party’s 10 provinces have passed resolutions for President Mnangagwa to stay in power until 2030.
Constitutional law experts say any changes to the supreme law to vary presidential term limits would need a public referendum and that could throw Zimbabwe’s succession politics into turmoil again.
Zanu PF enjoys a two-thirds majority in Parliament but the party is riven by factionalism that is reminiscent of the Mugabe days.
Parallels are already being drawn with Mr Mugabe’s last days in power where the octogenarian tried to fiddle with the constitution to influence his succession until he was overthrown by the military.
Mr Mugabe fired President Mnangagwa, who was his deputy then, and was toppled as he tried to foist his wife into the top position.
In what could be a replay of that episode, President Mnangagwa is said to have chosen an ambiguous strategy to manage his succession to keep his deputy Constantino Chiwenga out of the race.
General (Retired) Chiwenga, who led the 2017 coup, was regarded in most circles as Zimbabwe’s next leader but the dynamics appear to have changed in the ruling party as some want him out.
Former Finance Minister Tendai Biti said the way President Mnangagwa was handling his succession will push Zimbabwe to the brink.
“It is now self-evident that the third term agenda is in full throttle,” Mr Biti said.
“This is the biggest existential threat we face as citizens. The push for a third term will push the country to the brink. It’s time for a common front in defence of the constitution.”
Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition (CiZC), a grouping of some 40 civil society groups, said the push to amend the constitution must be resisted.
“The proposed constitutional amendments to either remove the term limit or increase the length of each term are nothing, but a thinly veiled plot to keep President Mnangagwa in power indefinitely,” CiZC said.
“This is a direct violation of the spirit and letter of our constitution, which was painstakingly crafted to prevent the concentration of power and ensure a peaceful transfer of power.”
According to a new report by the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute (ZDI), a local think-tank, just like in Mr Mugabe’s last days in power, there is no consensus in Zanu PF on President Mnangagwa’s succession.
ZDI said chances were high that the military would eventually decide how Zimbabwe’s second leader after independence will leave office
“As Zanu PF continues to grapple with a colossal succession battle, the role of the military in intra-party politics will become apparent in the decisive phase, although at this moment that role has not been shown overtly,” the ZDI report says.
“The military will not be an innocent bystander in the process of selecting a new leader in Zanu PF and ultimately the republic.
“It is highly likely that, as the military has done before, it will exercise veto power in the election or selection of the Zanu PF leadership.”
In justifying Mr Mugabe’s ouster in 2017, the security forces said they were rescuing Zanu PF from collapse as it had been taken over by a faction comprising newcomers that were loyal to the then president’s wife.
The top leadership of Zimbabwe’s security forces is made up of veterans of the country’s 1970s liberation war that was waged by Zanu PF and PF Zapu.
ZDI said military elites want to influence leadership changes in Zanu PF for them to remain in charge of the ruling party’s patronage networks.
“This makes the struggle to control Zanu PF leadership the most critical one in Zimbabwean transition politics,” the report added.
“As the succession debate continues to unravel amid indications that there is no homogeneity among Zanu PF civilians, with the party divided between factions, this presents a potentially hazardous scenario.”
Zanu PF is scheduled to elect its next leader a year before the 2028 elections, but an extraordinary congress can be held anytime to replace leaders.
When he took over power, President Mnangagwa had vowed to bring a ‘new kind of democracy in Zimbabwe but he is now accused of being more authoritarian than Mr Mugabe.
He is accused of ruthlessly dealing with dissent within the ruling party and outside with hundreds of opposition activists languishing in jail on charges of plotting to overthrow his government.
