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Kenyan universities have been repeatedly warned that a new kind of student will arrive in 2029: the first cohort shaped entirely by CBE.
In Greek mythology, Cassandra was a Trojan princess blessed and cursed by the god Apollo. He gave her the gift of perfect prophecy: she could foresee every disaster with crystal clarity. But when she spurned his advances, Apollo twisted the gift.
Cassandra would always speak the truth, yet no one would ever believe her. Her warnings about the Trojan Horse, the fall of Troy, and her own doom fell on deaf ears.
The city burned, and she was dragged into slavery. This has come to be known as the Curse of Cassandra: knowing the future with absolute certainty, but being powerless because nobody listens.
Today, Kenyan universities stand in Cassandra’s shadow. They have been repeatedly warned that a new kind of student will arrive in 2029: the first cohort shaped entirely by the Competency-Based Education (CBE).
These learners will not come expecting lectures, rote memorisation, and final exams. They will demand practical skills, critical thinking, collaboration, real-world projects, and continuous assessment.
Kenya Institute of Curriculum Development CEO Charles Ong’ondo.
Yet despite clear, urgent alerts from the Kenya Institute of Curriculum Development (KICD) and the Commission for University Education (CUE), most public and private universities remain dangerously unprepared. The curse is unfolding in real time.
The transition is not a rumour. Kenya began phasing out the 8-4-4 system in 2017, replacing it with the 2-6-3-3-3 CBC structure. Learners who started Grade 1 under CBC are now progressing through senior school (Grades 10–12).
By 2029, the pioneer batch, tens of thousands strong, will knock on university doors. They will have spent years building competencies in problem-solving, values, community service, and hands-on learning. The 8-4-4 mindset of “cram and pass” will be foreign to them.
KICD and CUE have not been silent. Since 2023, the Presidential Working Party on Education Reform has repeatedly flagged the need for university-level change. CUE is actively developing the University Competency-Based Education Framework (UCBEF), the official roadmap for curricula, teaching methods, assessment, and infrastructure.
In February 2026, CUE convened a high-level workshop at Lake Naivasha Resort, bringing together vice-chancellors, KICD, KNQA, KNEC, and other agencies. The message was unmistakable: “A new kind of learner is coming. Are you ready?”
The answer, according to regulators and even some university leaders themselves, is “not yet.” Recent reports paint a worrying picture. Universities are racing against time, but a Sh223 billion funding gap threatens laboratories, digital infrastructure, and lecturer retraining.
Many institutions have barely begun overhauling programmes. While the University of Nairobi has rolled out staff sensitisation and formed a CBET Preparedness Committee, many others lag far behind.
Vice-chancellors privately admit the gap between policy and practice is widening. Curriculum reviews are slow, lecturer capacity-building is patchy, and admission systems still favour exam scores over demonstrated competencies.
Kenyan universities have been repeatedly warned that a new kind of student will arrive in 2029: the first cohort shaped entirely by CBE.
This is classic Cassandra syndrome. The prophets, KICD CEO Prof. Charles Ong’ondo and CUE leadership led by Prof Mike Kuria, are laying out the frameworks. They have hosted workshops, issued guidelines, and aligned with the national qualification framework.
Yet the institutions that must implement the change treat the warnings as distant noise. Some dismiss the urgency as “just another reform.”
Others cite financial constraints and wait for government bailouts. A few are making token efforts — a single workshop here, a policy paper there — while the clock ticks.
The consequences of ignoring these warnings will be devastating. In 2029, CBE graduates will arrive expecting learner-centred education.
They will question dilapidated lecture halls, resist high-stakes exams, and demand industry-relevant skills. If universities are not ready, chaos follows: mass frustration, high dropout rates, graduates mismatched to the job market, and a wasted generation of talent.
Kenya’s Vision 2030 and Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda depend on a skilled workforce. A failed transition could set the country back years, widening the skills gap at the very moment the economy needs innovators in agriculture, technology, health, and green energy.
We have seen this curse before. Climate scientists warned for decades about global warming; they were called alarmists until floods and droughts became normal.
Whistle-blowers in banking and aviation predicted disasters that could have been prevented. In each case, the cost of disbelief was paid in human suffering.
Kenyan universities now risk paying in lost opportunities for hundreds of thousands of young people.
The chairman of the Commission for University Education (CUE), Prof Chacha Nyaigotti-Chacha (Left) and the Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Prof Mike Kuria, when they appeared before the National Assembly Committee on Education at the Bunge Tower, Nairobi on Thursday, April 17, 2025.
Breaking the curse is still possible but only if action replaces denial. Universities must treat 2029 as a hard deadline, not a vague target. Immediate steps include:
- Accelerating full curriculum reviews and embedding CBE principles in every programme.
- Launching mandatory retooling for lecturers in competency-based pedagogy.
- Investing in modern labs, digital platforms, and industry partnerships for work-based learning.
- Reforming admissions to recognise CBE portfolios and continuous assessments alongside KCSE.
Government must close the funding gap through targeted grants and public-private partnerships. CUE and KICD have provided the blueprint; now universities must execute it with urgency.
Cassandra’s tragedy was not that she was wrong: it was that she was right and ignored. Kenyan universities still have three years to prove they are wiser than the Trojans.
The warnings have been loud and clear. The question is no longer whether the students are coming. The question is whether universities will listen before it is too late.
If they do, 2029 could mark Kenya’s greatest education success story. If they do not, the curse will claim another victim - and an entire generation will pay the price.
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Dr Benjamin Muindi is the Dean, Research, Innovation & Postgraduate Studies at Zetech University
