Four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a global food and energy crisis, Kenyan consumers are still feeling the impact through higher food prices, with fresh data showing inflation is once again accelerating after easing over the past two years.
While global supply chains have largely adjusted and commodity prices have eased from the record highs witnessed in 2022 and 2023, the effects of the ongoing conflict continue to ripple through Kenya's economy, particularly in the prices of wheat products, cooking oil and food produced using imported fertiliser
The latest figures from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) show the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of the cost of living, stood at 6.7 per cent in May.
High food prices have been a huge contributor to the rise in cost of living, underscoring the continued pressure on household budgets, the KNBS data showed.
Maize and wheat flour at a supermarket on Moi Avenue, Mombasa. Food prices have continued to rise in recent months, hitting the pockets of ordinary Kenyans hard.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
The surge in prices comes at a time when attacks between Russia and Ukraine have flared up in recent months, upsetting the stability that had been witnessed in the markets months following inflationary shocks soon after the Ukraine-Russia war started in February 2022.
In March 2022, the price of fertiliser doubled from the long rains planting season of March-April-May 2021 from Sh2,500 to more than Sh5,000.
Since the war started, imports from Ukraine have fallen by more than 80 per cent, underlining the impact it has had on the purchase of products such as wheat and fertiliser.
The imports from Ukraine have come down from Sh19.3 billion in 2021 to Sh3.2 billion last year, last year’s Economic Survey showed.
“Imports from Eastern Europe declined sharply by 54.7 per cent to Sh37.2 billion in 2025. The contraction was mainly driven by reduced imports from the Russian Federation, which fell from Sh79.1 billion to Sh33.3 billion. The reduction was largely attributed to lower imports of chemical fertilizers, wheat and meslin from this source,” KNBS added.
A review of KNBS inflation data shows Kenya experienced some of its highest inflation rates in years following the outbreak of the conflict, which disrupted global supplies of wheat, edible oils and fertiliser.
In 2022, inflation climbed steadily throughout the year, peaking at 9.5 per cent in November as soaring food and fuel prices squeezed households. Inflation remained elevated in 2023 before easing gradually as global commodity markets stabilised. By the end of that year, annual inflation had moderated to about 6.6 per cent.
The trend started improving in 2024, with inflation falling from 6.9 per cent in January to the 4 per cent range later in the year as food supplies improved and international prices softened. By late 2025, inflation had dropped below 4.5 per cent, raising hopes that the worst of the cost-of-living crisis had passed.
In recent months, the war between Russia and Ukraine has intensified as Kyiv lodged frequent attacks deep into Moscow, with the latter retaliating heavily with far-reaching attacks on Ukraine.
Service members of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during their first military drill as recruits, near a frontline, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, December 12, 2025.
Photo credit: Andriy Andriyenko | Reuters
While this happens, gains made on Kenya’s economy have been reversing, with inflation climbing from 4.4 per cent in January, reaching 6.7 per cent in May as food and fuel prices increased.
The continued pressure reflects Kenya's heavy dependence on imports of commodities directly affected by the war.
Economic Survey 2026 data shows Kenya's wheat import bill rose from Sh62.4 billion in 2021, before the war, to Sh78.1 billion in 2022, before hitting a record Sh93.8 billion in 2023 as global grain prices surged.
Although the import bill eased to Sh41.7 billion in 2025 following a moderation in international prices, Kenya remains heavily reliant on imported wheat.
Import volumes tell a similar story. Kenya imported 1.89 million tonnes of wheat in 2021, 1.68 million tonnes in 2022, 2.04 million tonnes in 2023, 2.31 million tonnes in 2024 and 2.24 million tonnes in 2025, demonstrating the country's continued dependence on foreign grain supplies.
The edible oils market has been equally affected. Ukraine was one of the world's largest exporters of sunflower oil before the war, and disruptions to supplies from the Black Sea region pushed global vegetable oil prices sharply higher.
Economic Survey 2026 shows Kenya spent Sh120.8 billion on imports of animal and vegetable fats and oils in 2021. The import bill jumped to Sh145.8 billion in 2022, remained above Sh139 billion in both 2023 and 2024, and reached a record Sh158.8 billion in 2025.
Import volumes of animal and vegetable oils also increased from 930,000 tonnes in 2021 to 1.04 million tonnes in 2025, underlining Kenya's growing reliance on imported cooking oil products.
The disruption of global supplies following the invasion sent fertiliser prices soaring, increasing production costs for farmers and contributing to higher food prices.
Although prices have moderated from their peak levels, Kenya continues to depend heavily on imported fertiliser.
Economic Survey 2026 data shows fertiliser imports increased by 10.2 per cent to 920,000 tonnes in 2025, highlighting the sector's continued exposure to global market shocks.
The government has also spent billions of shillings subsidizing fertiliser prices since President William Ruto came into power.
For consumers, the result has been persistently high food prices. KNBS data shows food and non-alcoholic beverages recorded annual inflation of 9.4 per cent in May 2026, making food the single largest contributor to the rising cost of living.
Economists say the experience of the past four years has exposed the risks of Kenya's dependence on imported wheat, edible oils and fertiliser.
While global markets have adjusted to the conflict and the extreme price spikes witnessed in 2022 have subsided, the latest inflation figures suggest the effects of the war remain embedded in the country's food system.
As the Ukraine-Russia conflict enters its fifth year with no clear end in sight, Kenyan households continue to pay the price through higher costs of bread, cooking oil and other everyday essentials, demonstrating how a war thousand of kilometres away can still shape the contents of a family's shopping basket.
Kenya imports wheat, oil, iron, steel, and fertilizers from Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine dominate the list of wheat imports to the East African region. In Kenya, 67 per cent of imported wheat is from Russia, 22 per cent from Ukraine and 11 per cent from the rest of the world.
