After parties in President William Ruto’s broad-based government scooped 18 of the 24 seats in the November 27 by-elections, he has hit the road celebrating the results as a validation of his smooth path to re-election in 2027.
Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga (left) addresses ODM supporters after Boyd Were (centre) was declared the winner of the Kasipul parliamentary by-election on Nvemebr 28, 2025.
Photo credit: George Odiwuor | Nation Media Group
Key contests included the Mbeere North, Ugunja, Kasipul, Magarini and Malava parliamentary seats, as well as the Baringo senatorial seat, all won by UDA and ODM.
However, the United Opposition, backed by political analysts, insists that the by-elections cannot reliably predict the 2027 outcome.
“The basics of research show that the simplest sample size to draw any national political bearing is simultaneous by-elections in at least 12 counties. What we had recently were localised grassroots contests driven by specific local interests,” political commentator Prof Peter Kagwanja said.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki congratulates Leo Muthende of UDA after he was declared the winner in the Mbeere North by-election.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi| Nation Media Group
Prof Kagwanja warned that interpreting the results as a national endorsement is misleading, especially amid concerns that the government allegedly used unorthodox methods, undermining democratic processes.
A day after the by-elections, President Ruto toured Kiambu and Nakuru counties, claiming the wins reflected public confidence in his Kenya Kwanza-ODM administration.
“I have been giving free advice to those in the United Opposition… Kenyans have vindicated me. These wins corroborate my point that I will defeat them early in the morning,” said President Ruto.
He argued that opposition luminaries failed because they were inferior to his vision and agenda for the country.
“Their campaign was superficial, and these individuals are now on notice that we will defeat them,” he said.
But Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) Deputy Party Leader Cleophas Malala dismissed Dr Ruto’s celebrations as misleading.
“The president ignores that a six-month-old party led by Rigathi Gachagua , whom he impeached last October, fielded candidates in five contests, won three, and came a strong second in the other two,” Mr Malala said.
The DCP won Kariobangi North Ward, Narok Town Ward, and Kisa East Ward in Kakamega County.
Mr Malala further noted that in Nyanza, Jubilee Party leader Dr Fred Matiang’i campaigned for three candidates who defeated broad-based government nominees in Nyansiongo, Nyamaiya and Ekerenyo wards in Nyamira County.
He also pointed out losses by allies of the President, such as National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, who lost in Kabuchai to an independent candidate supported by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.
Dr Matiang’i criticised the by-elections, saying: “We saw strange things—government campaigning using helicopters and sacks of money. The pride and hubris were amazing. But we will counter this distortion of democracy. President Ruto’s presidency is ending. Wantam must be executed.”
“We are not even interested in debating such a shambolic democracy as an indicator of the country’s direction.”
UDA Secretary-General Omar Hassan insisted that the results confirm that President Ruto’s politics resonate with Kenyans.
“These results are a total endorsement of the broad-based government and a clear sign that Kenyans appreciate President Ruto’s development agenda. The ground has spoken emphatically,” he said.
However, Mr Natembeya cautioned against over-interpretation, noting the victories were narrow and “a 500-vote win in Mbeere North cannot be taken as an endorsement for Ruto’s 2027 bid”.
Political scientist John Okumu argued that by-elections measure localised dynamics rather than national presidential popularity.
The United Opposition warns that President Ruto cannot replicate the November 27 strategies in 2027.
“We are moving to court to challenge this celebration. How he won some seats was a total mockery of democracy, and we have evidence,” former Attorney General Justin Muturi said of the Mbeere North election.
