The United Opposition’s bid to use by-elections as a springboard for a 2027 showdown against President William Ruto has instead delivered uncomfortable lessons.
Despite spirited campaigns, particularly in the hotly contested Mbeere North, Malava and Magarini constituencies, the movement led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua emerged weakened and forced back to the drawing board.
The opposition camp left the contests with more questions than victories, as President Ruto’s team tightened its grip and exposed the opposition’s philosophical and structural vulnerabilities.
Kalonzo Musyoka (left) and DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua attend the Wiper Patriotic Front National Delegates Convention (NDC) at Uhuru Park in Nairobi on October 10, 2025.
Photo credit: Evans Habil | Nation Media Group
The opposition outfit now faces a critical crossroads following by-election results that handed the Ruto broad-based team symbolic wins and revealed uncomfortable truths about the strength, coherence and long-term viability of the anti-Ruto movement.
Buoyed by the by-election results, President Ruto told a Nakuru crowd on Friday that he has yet to unleash his full political machinery.
“This is not politics season. Stop the noise. I hear some people saying Ruto is playing politics; I haven’t begun. I’m busy working. When the day comes, I’ll take off my coat, put on a cap and T-shirt, and go full throttle into campaigns,” the President said.
The close contests, held in Mbeere North, Malava and Magarini, were billed as a national mood indicator, the first real political test for both government and opposition since the ripples of the June 2024 Gen Z protests.
For the opposition, this was the moment to demonstrate force. For the government, it was a chance to reclaim narrative control and counter perceptions of weakening ground support.
By the end of tallying, it was clear which side had capitalised on the moment.
Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung'aro (left) and ODM Deputy Party Leader and Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir celebrate Magarini MP-elect Harrison Kombe (centre) after he was declared the winner in the November 27 by-election by the IEBC on November 28, 2025.
Photo credit: Kevin Odit | Nation Media Group
Despite finishing second in Magarini, where the united opposition’s Stanley Karissa Kenga lost to ODM candidate Harisson Kombe, Mr Gachagua struck a defiant tone, insisting the outcome was a demonstration of growth.
“For a new party DCP with no previous inroads in the Coast region, a credible second is more than acceptable. This now gives us an entry into the Coast region,” Mr Gachagua said.
He framed the loss as a prelude to something grander, declaring plans to camp in the Coast over the December holiday season to recruit aspirants and establish party offices.
Hooliganism and manipulation
For him, the by-election was a beginning, not a setback. But even as he sought to draw optimism, he rejected the legitimacy of the defeat.
“The government resorted to handouts, hooliganism and manipulation to overturn the will of the people… This sets the stage for serious acrimony ahead of the 2027 General Elections,” he claimed, blaming the outcome on what he described as State-backed goons and heavily armed police.
His co-principals struck similar notes. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka described the journey to “renew and heal the nation” as ongoing.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
Photo credit: File | Nation
DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa condemned the violence and claimed the Ruto administration was “an existential threat to our democracy.”
Yet beneath the outrage lies a deeper strategic concern, as the results did not align with the opposition’s stated objective: Demonstrate that the Gachagua-led bloc had electoral muscle, unity and a clear path to 2027.
Dr Mukhisa Kituyi, the spokesperson and head of the united opposition secretariat, said Friday that Kenya was “witnessing a State ready to use excessive resources to sabotage the democratic will.”
He accused the government of deploying State machinery to tilt the outcome of the Malava and Mbeere North by-elections, saying the events marked a dangerous erosion of democratic norms.
Dr Kituyi claimed that what he termed “financial and material doping” was openly on display, particularly in Malava and Mbeere North, warning that such practices risk destroying public trust in electoral processes.
Malava IEBC returning officer Salim Abdallah declares UDA parliamentary candidate David Ndakwa as the winner of the by-election.
Photo credit: Isaac Wale| Nation Media Group
“If the public believes that this financial and material doping is anything to go by, then trust in the due process is going to be very diminished,” he said.
He further criticised the electoral commission for what he described as its inability to rein in hooliganism and secure the polling environment, saying this raised questions about its capacity to manage a credible election.
“Using goons, and even police vehicles to break gates and harass candidates, is a primitive step backwards, and we will have to relook at this,” he said. “It augurs very badly for the country.”
But political analysts argue that the results have punctured the perception of an emerging anti-Ruto powerhouse.
“The so-called United Opposition is standing on shifting sand. These results have peeled away the illusion of its strength,” says political analyst Joshua Nyamori.
“Of course, politics is never static, and they can reorganise, but they will be rebuilding from fragments, not from a foundation.”
“You cannot build a national movement on anger, nostalgia and factional resentments. The electorate is demanding clarity, unity and solutions, not theatrics.”
If the alliance hopes to regain momentum, he argues, it must evolve beyond grievance politics.
“Gachagua’s camp must rediscover relevance through policy, not protest; through ideas, not incitement. Whether they can make that transition remains to be seen, but the window is narrowing.”
United States International University don, Prof Macharia Munene, agrees the opposition miscalculated.
“Gachagua lost mainly because of the noise he had made about being unassailable in the Mountain. He gave the impression he was ahead everywhere, which in turn energised the Ruto/Kindiki side,” he says.
DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua campaigns for Mbeere North parliamentary candidate Newton Kariuki at Kanyuambora Trading Centre on November 16, 2025.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi | Nation Media Group
“Neither side should relax. Political fortunes can swing either way. Each has serious homework to do.”
Even within the opposition, there is division between optimism and frustration.
Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru insisted that, despite losses, the united opposition performed well enough to remain competitive.
“The results are a clear indication that if the united opposition remains together and fields one presidential candidate, President Ruto will serve only one term,” he argued.
He claimed the violence and bribery witnessed in Mbeere North and Malava should concern the government.
“The snake they are feeding now will come back to bite them in 2027,” he told the Nation .
Mr Gathiru celebrated DCP’s Nairobi MCA win secured by David Warui as evidence that the movement can grow.
“Delivering an MCA seat in Nairobi means people are listening, considering this is a party formed just six months ago by a man we were told would be politically finished after impeachment.”
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki congratulates Leo Muthende of UDA after he was declared the winner in the Mbeere North by-election.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi| Nation Media Group
Still, the results in Malava and Mbeere North, won by David Ndakwa and Leonard Muthende respectively, both of UDA, sent a symbolic message about the government’s continued electoral presence.
Beyond the political theatrics, the by-elections carry real implications for the 2027 presidential race.
For President Ruto, the wins have reinforced perceptions of a viable re-election bid at a time when the administration has battled criticism over economic hardships, while also validating his broad-based coalition, which includes ODM under the post-Raila Odinga realignment.
“The outcome will help Ruto calibrate his alliances,” says Prof David Monda.
“He is likely to use the results to identify new strategic partners and negotiate power-sharing deals heading into 2027.”
To survive, analysts say, the opposition must build a clear ideological narrative beyond anti-Ruto rhetoric, develop policy-based messaging that resonates with youth and middle-class voters, cultivate a national, not regional, coalition structure, and settle on a single 2027 presidential candidate early enough to organise.
