Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s declaration that President William Ruto did not transparently defeat Raila Odinga in the 2022 presidential election has brought into sharp focus the do-or-die competition for the votes that could determine the 2027 General Election.
After Mr Kenyatta unsuccessfully tried to stop his then deputy from succeeding him in the 2022 election, he has now made it clear that he remains determined to challenge Dr Ruto’s political dominance ahead of next year’s poll.
The emerging battle is increasingly being fought around Dr Ruto’s 7,176,141 and Mr Odinga’s 6,942,930 garnered in 2022 and the question of where those numbers stand as the two sides realign.
Mr Kenyatta’s latest claim that Mr Odinga actually won the election has reopened the bitter debate over the 2022 result. He has, however, not provided figures to support his assertion that the final result was the reverse of what was declared.
But the political significance of Mr Kenyatta’s latest intervention lies less in the legal status of the 2022 result than in how the claim is being deployed in the battle for the next election.
Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu told the Nation that what is worrying President Ruto about Mr Kenyatta’s claims is the political fallout in Mt Kenya, particularly after Dr Ruto fell out with his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, who was removed from office in October 2024 after two years as Deputy President.
Then-President Uhuru Kenyatta (centre) raise their clasped hands with then-opposition leader and former Prime Minister, the late Raila Odinga (right) and then-Deputy President William Ruto (left) on November 27, 2019, during the launch of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) report in Nairobi.
Photo credit: Photo | Nation
“This political fight is about Mr Kenyatta knowing that President Ruto has nearly lost the Mt Kenya voting bloc and is trying to compensate for that loss by winning over Mr Odinga’s voting bloc,” Mr Nyutu said.
The battle, therefore, is increasingly about dismantling the electoral coalition that delivered Dr Ruto the presidency while rebuilding one capable of defeating him in 2027.
Mr Kenyatta appears to have drawn former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka closer to his side, further complicating Mr Odinga’s traditional political base.
That, he argues, would leave Mr Odinga’s original voting basket at about five million votes. Removing the more than one million votes Mr Odinga received in Mt Kenya would reduce the figure further, to about four million.
“If President Ruto has indeed lost about 3.5 million votes from the Mt Kenya bloc, then he goes into 2027 with about 3.5 million votes a very risky situation,” he said.
To rebuild his 2022 numbers, Dr Ruto would therefore have to make significant gains in Mr Odinga’s traditional strongholds.
In the emerging political arithmetic, those votes concentrated largely in Western, Nyanza and the Maa regions have become the prize both camps are fighting to control.
Mr Nyutu argues that Mr Kenyatta and his opposition allies are seeking to disperse the roughly four million votes that Dr Ruto would need to rebuild his 2022 tally.
Mr Gachagua has similarly argued that the opposition strategy is to leave Dr Ruto strong only in his traditional base while reducing his support elsewhere.
“After we lock him out from Mt Kenya region that made him president, we are seeking to ensure he suffers maximum pain in choosing his running mate, winning Mr Odinga’s traditional base and eventually defeating him by over seven million votes.
Uhuru: Raila won the 2022 election, we know how things went down
“We want increased voter turnout in 2027. We want the youthful bloc to completely isolate President Ruto. Mt Kenya will be mobilised to recall its 2022 trust on Ruto by over 95 per cent. Mr Musyoka has already withdrawn his support from the Odinga pool. In Western, Nyanza and among the Maa and Kipsigis communities, we want him hugely weakened,” Mr Gachagua said.
It is against this backdrop that Mr Kenyatta’s claim about the 2022 election has acquired a second life.
Rather than simply being a legal argument about who won the election, the claim is being deployed as a political weapon in a contest over the votes that could determine whether Dr Ruto secures a second term.
While Dr Ruto is strategising to retain power in 2027, Mr Kenyatta has aligned himself with opposition figures seeking to make him the first president in the post-2002 era to serve only one term.
Political analyst Malila Munywoki argues that Dr Ruto’s allies should therefore treat Mr Kenyatta’s claim as part of the political contest rather than attempt to settle it through arguments over the legality of the 2022 result.
“Tell President Ruto’s loyalists to cease attacking Mr Kenyatta on grounds of legal correctness of his statement that President Ruto rigged the 2022 vote. Advise them to treat it as competition propaganda that should be responded to in equal measure,” Mr Munywoki said.
He questioned the argument that Mr Kenyatta should have refused to hand over power if he believed the election had been stolen, noting that the Supreme Court, the Assumption of the Office of President Committee and the constitutional transition process recognised Dr Ruto as the president-elect.
Mr Munywoki said Mr Kenyatta was not required to decide whether power should be transferred to Dr Ruto after the Supreme Court verdict.
“Unless they are suggesting that the former President should have ordered the military or guerillas to upturn the legal position and sink the country into a war aimed at blocking the president-elect from assuming power,” he said.
Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma accuses Mr Kenyatta of having benefited from disputed elections in 2013 and 2017, when Mr Odinga challenged the results.
Mr Kaluma also points to earlier contests, arguing that Mr Odinga’s support for Mwai Kibaki in 2002 was not reciprocated and that the 2007 election was similarly disputed.
President William Ruto (right) and his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta at State House, Nairobi, on August 1, 2025.
Photo credit: PSC
The historical grievances are now being woven into the 2027 political contest, creating a potentially combustible narrative around Mt Kenya and Mr Odinga’s traditional support base.
Political scientist Gasper Odhiambo warned that the emerging battle lines must be managed carefully to prevent political competition from turning into conflict between communities.
“The script being written is that Mt Kenya has always blocked the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga family from ascending to power since independence,” he said.
He argued that the current contest was producing a counter-narrative in which Mt Kenya’s opposition to Dr Ruto is being linked to Mr Odinga’s death while Mr Kenyatta’s intervention seeks to remind voters that Dr Ruto himself was part of the political establishment accused of blocking Mr Odinga’s presidential ambitions.
“This is a highly technical political competition founded in electoral mathematics, where Mr Kenyatta and the opposition are chiselling out the 2022 Dr Ruto numbers and he, in turn, is fighting tooth and nail to keep himself afloat by making new alliances, which the opposition is working hard to disperse,” Mr Odhiambo said.
Mr Gachagua also acknowledged the potential danger in framing the contest as a confrontation between Mt Kenya and Mr Odinga’s supporters.
“Mt Kenya and Mr Odinga’s people should be wary of schemes to pit them against each other,” he said.
“We are looking for a way to work together against President Ruto. Every time the Mountain teamed up with the Lake, good things happened. Founding father of the nation Jomo Kenyatta became president because of Jaramogi Oginga. Mwai Kibaki became president because of Raila Odinga. We should work more towards unity of purpose,” he said.
