Kisii Governor and ODM deputy party leader Simba Arati (left) confers with Homa Bay Governor and ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga (centre) alongside Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho during a mega rally in memory of Raila Odinga at Jacaranda Grounds on October 31, 2026.
The perceived infiltration of the Orange Democratic Movement’s (ODM) traditional bases by President William Ruto’s UDA, coupled with conflicting interests among its top leaders, threatens to weaken the bargaining power of the political juggernaut built by veteran politician Raila Odinga over several decades.
Political analysts believe that the Orange party made its biggest mistake by rallying its bases to back Dr Ruto for a second term before finalising the terms of the pre-election coalition agreement. They argue that the party should have agreed on conditions of cooperation first.
Raila and Dr Ruto entered into the broad-based government arrangement in 2024 following the Gen Z protests. But since the former prime minister’s death in October 2025, ODM has been facing splits and infighting.
Individual ODM leaders have also been making commitments that have largely undermined the outfit’s official negotiating position. The desire to open up its bases for other parties has also exposed the ODM’s soft underbelly ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Following UDA’s rapprochement with Raila, President Ruto and his allies have been aggressively recruiting grassroots leaders in ODM bases.
The president has also made significant inroads in the party’s traditional bases through development projects, without relying on the influence of ODM leaders.
Various camps have emerged in ODM, with some of its elected leaders leaning towards the president and offering unconditional support for his re-election.
It has become common for ODM leaders to attend public meetings with senior government officials and UDA politicians — especially in the Nyanza region — where ODM’s official position is publicly contradicted.
Fears that ODM may not secure its interests in the next government have crept in, triggering public demand for a written coalition agreement between the party and UDA. Tellingly, President Ruto and his allies have not commented on the matter.
The party is facing a major split on whether to get a written agreement or to ride on the president’s goodwill.
At the same time, ODM’s bargaining power is also at risk given that some of its influential voices, such as National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), Beatrice Askul (EAC) and Hassan Joho, are in Dr Ruto’s Cabinet. It goes without saying that the Kenya Kwanza administration needs to secure another term for its own political survival.
Competing ambitions and succession battles by top party officials have also complicated the Orange party’s path to a structured negotiation.
Mr Oparanya, Mr Joho, and ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, who is also the Homa Bay Governor, are all angling for the running mate slot. On the other hand, speaking previously during a meeting with professionals from Kisumu County, Mr Mbadi said that he was preparing himself for the top seat in 2032. He said that he would not waste his energy pursuing the deputy president’s position, stating that “it was inconsequential in the running of the country.”
ODM party leader Dr Oburu Oginga.
ODM Leader Oburu Oginga has sounded a warning on the risk of the party going for the talks with UDA from a weaker position.
“Moving forward, I request all leaders of ODM to speak with one voice, as one people, from one command. We cannot afford the luxury of self-serving divisions or rogue pronouncements that weaken our collective bargaining power,” Dr Oginga said.
He made the remarks while addressing a well-attended ODM rally that was held at Jacaranda Grounds in Nairobi through a live link on Saturday.
ODM supporters during a political rally at Jacaranda Grounds in Nairobi on October 31, 2026.
“When the strategic command is given from the top, we must march in perfect unison. Our strength has always been in our solidarity, and we must guard that solidarity with everything we have,” he said.
The Siaya senator, who has been absent from the party’s activities on health grounds, also warned members against engaging in 2032 succession battles. He said the party risks having divided attention going into 2027 polls.
“Let us get our priorities straight. I see many leaders wasting precious energy debating the 2032 General Election. That is a dangerous distraction we cannot afford,” Dr Oginga said.
“2032 is a distant horizon; 2027 is the immediate battleground where the destiny of our people will be decided. Let us channel our resources, our strategies, our intelligence, and our grassroots mobilisation efforts toward securing a resounding victory in 2027.”
Dr Oginga, Governor Wanga and National Assembly Leader of Minority Junet Mohamed are some of the top ODM figures pushing for a written agreement.
“ODM and UDA will have a properly documented coalition government as two parties partnering together to form the next government. There is nothing like unconditional support,” Mr Mohamed said.
ODM Deputy Leader and Kisii Governor, Mr Simba Arati, said ODM should set conditions.
Kisii Governor and ODM deputy party leader Simba Arati addresses party supporters during a mega rally in memory of Raila Odinga at Jacaranda Grounds on October 31, 2026.
"As ODM party, we are saying that any cooperation with UDA must be based on conditions,” he said.
Some ODM leaders have sided with Internal Security Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo, who said ODM should back the president without conditions.
“The president has worked for the people. His re-election should be unconditional,” the PS said.
Nyando MP Jared Okello backed the PS, saying ODM should demonstrate goodwill.
“We need to open our hearts and be with the president so that if other opposition leaders come, they will find us already with him,” Mr Okello said, and questioned the value of written political agreements.
“Raila signed an agreement with Moi in 2002, but he went for another person. Kibaki shortchanged Raila after the 2002 election. Even if we were to sign a deal with President Ruto, nothing prevents him from trashing it if he has no goodwill,” he said.
ODM had intended to flaunt its support base and numerical strength in Parliament to demand a greater share in its pre-poll talks with UDA. However, the party that has been formidable in the last four elections is now facing a major dilemma.
US-based university lecturer and political analyst Prof David Monda notes that the Linda Mwananchi faction led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna — which is mostly made up of breakaway ODM politicians — has also stolen the thunder from Dr Oginga’s camp. He said that Gen Zs also seem to be identifying with Mr Sifuna.
“The narrative shaping up is to have Sifuna as the focal point for the broader ideals of Baba (Raila Odinga)/ODM and the aspirations of the Gen Zs. The narrative of speaking truth to power and confronting injustice spearheaded by Raila for years has been captured by the Sifuna-led team,” Prof Monda said.
Follow our WhatsApp channel for breaking news updates and more stories like this.
