Ol Kalou by-election candidates Sammy Kamau Ngotho (left) of the Democracy for Citizens Party and Samuel Muchina Nyaga of the United Democratic Alliance.
With the high-stakes Ol Kalou by-election now just 10 days away, competing political camps have painted it as a referendum on the future political direction of the Mt Kenya region ahead of the 2027 General Election.
In what promises to be a mouth-watering duel, the main contenders have emerged as Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Douglas Waweru, the ruling United Democratic Alliance's (UDA) Muchina Nyaga and Jubilee Party's Wilson Kigwa. Six other candidates are also in the race and, while considered underdogs, could still spring surprises.
The other contenders are Rachel Wangui of the People's Democratic Party, Mathenge Mwaniki of the Kenya Moja Movement, Abdifatah Hussein of the Federal Party of Kenya, Timothy Kamau of the People's Renaissance Party, Stephen Wanyoike of the National Liberal Party and Edwin Muchiri of the Party of National Unity.
Mr Kigwa faces an awkward political situation. Both his party leader, former President Uhuru Kenyatta, and the party's presidential candidate, Dr Fred Matiang'i, have stayed away from the campaign trail, denying him the backing of his party's biggest political figures.
Read: Politics or development? Questions over multi-billion-shilling projects ahead of Ol Kalou vote
The seat fell vacant following the death of Jubilee MP Njuguna Kiaraho on March 29, 2026. In another twist, Jubilee-nominated MP Sabina Chege has abandoned her party's candidate and is openly campaigning for the UDA candidate.
Characteristic of high-stakes political contests, Ol Kalou has become a theatre of promises, propaganda and political incentives as the competitors frame the contest as a duel between the government, whose face is President William Ruto and the opposition, represented by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Mr Gachagua has announced that he will campaign in the constituency for three days beginning July 10, ahead of the closure of campaigns on July 13.
Nyandarua Senator John Methu's home in Mugumo village has effectively been transformed into an annex of Mr Gachagua's Wamunyoro political base, with supporters flocking there for political mobilisation. On the other hand, the government has taken over several corners of the constituency, dishing out promises and development pledges in a bid to woo voters.
Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua.
Of the nine candidates on the ballot, only Mr Nyaga is openly aligned with the government. The other candidates are considered part of the opposition, reflecting the fragmented nature of opposition politics and the inability of rival camps to agree on a united front against UDA.
On July 5, six of the nine candidates faced off during a live debate on Inooro TV, where Mr Nyaga found himself under sustained attack from his rivals. He, however, held his ground, in what many saw as a reflection of the larger contest between government resources on one side and an opposition campaign built largely on political goodwill and faith on the other.
Speaking at his Wamunyoro home on July 4 while hosting a delegation from Kiambu County, Mr Gachagua defended the crowded field, saying democracy cannot be promoted by suppressing aspirants and that a large number of candidates offers voters a wider choice.
Political pundits, however, warn that Mr Gachagua stands to lose the most if the vote goes against his preferred candidate.
Such an outcome, they argue, would dent his claims of being the Mt Kenya region's chief political mobiliser and weaken his credentials as a credible presidential contender.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki has already declared that the Ol Kalou by-election will mark the political burial of what he termed politics of isolation, gatekeeping, hubris and chest-thumping, insisting that a UDA victory would affirm the government's political strength in the region.
Pressure is also mounting on Prof Kindiki to physically join the campaigns in Ol Kalou, as the outcome could equally affect his standing as Deputy President and his prospects of retaining the position of President Ruto's running mate in 2027.
One of the government's key campaigners, Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri, told the Nation on Monday that UDA was confident of victory.
“We are doing well. We are not in this race to lose. Our data indicates that we will win the seat. Our candidate is superior on all fronts,” he said.
Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia.
But Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia, who is leading campaigns for Mr Gachagua's camp, insisted that the DCP candidate remained the clear frontrunner.
“This is about the Mt Kenya community asserting its independence as a voting bloc. The government is fighting to sustain the 'Tutam' narrative while we are promoting the 'Wantam' counter-narrative. Politics is not merely about votes; it is also about regional and national outlooks. Ol Kalou will speak to that broader picture,” she said.
Political commentator Malila Munywoki warned that the high stakes of the contest leave little room for mistakes and could expose the country to aggressive political tactics.
Mr Munywoki said the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and security agencies have an opportunity to demonstrate that they can deliver a credible and peaceful by-election ahead of the 2027 General Election.
“We have had several by-elections in recent years, and both the IEBC and security agencies have not emerged entirely unscathed. Their hands have been tainted by allegations of violence, voter bribery, voter suppression, the misuse of state resources and claims of collaboration between some police officers and criminal gangs to influence political outcomes,” he said.
Leaders and residents from other constituencies believe that the Ol-Kalou by-election will set a precedent, and its outcome will significantly impact the gubernatorial campaign and elections in the 2027 general elections, making it a critical issue for the UDA and DCP parties.
“The social and mainstream media platforms are abuzz with the ongoing campaigns in Ol Kalou, in a clear demonstration that the residents of the region and those from outside who have an interest in the outcome are keenly following the unfolding scenario, which has a bearing on the 2027 poll”, Ms Monicah Kabiru, a women’s leader in Kinangop constituency, said.
Nyandarua Governor Kiarie Badilisha is currently not openly campaigning for any candidate, but, in his development tours across the county, he tells the residents that politically, he is “where the hearts of the majority of Nyandarua residents are”.
“I am with you; I know and understand where your hearts are, and that is where I belong. You are my employers, and I can't go against your wishes. But I will openly declare that when the time is ripe,” said Governor Badilisha in what has been taken as a possibility for him to jump ship politically ahead of 2027.
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