Presidential ambition is rarely built on national popularity alone. It relies heavily on the ability to command loyalty and consolidate political power at home.
As the General Election approaches, key presidential hopefuls and perceived regional kingpins are discovering that the road to State House could be complicated by rivals in their own political constituencies.
From former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Mt Kenya calculations and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s Ukambani to Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s Western contest and Jubilee candidate Fred Matiang’i’s Gusii challenge, the internal battles are gathering momentum.
Even President William Ruto, analysts say, must contend with competing political interests in the Rift Valley, where Kanu Chairman Gideon Moi leads the charge against him.
Observers say that while politicians seek to build national coalitions and negotiate presidential tickets, they must first contend with influential figures at home who have their own ambitions, constituencies and bargaining power.
The most immediate test for Mr Gachagua is if he can retain his grip on the Mountain, a region that helped propel Dr Ruto to power in 2022.
The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) chief is pursuing an opposition arrangement built around regional consolidation, which he believes could make him indispensable in negotiations for the 2027 presidential ticket.
His proposed alliance brings together DCP, Mr Musyoka’s Wiper Patriotic Front and Mr Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi Movement, with Mt Kenya, Ukambani, Western and Nyanza forming its electoral backbone.
Linda Mwananchi brigade, led by Party leader Edwin Sifuna (centre right), is joined by DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua (right), Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka (centre left), LMM deputy party leader Faith Odhiambo and other leaders at party headquarters in Nairobi on Friday, October 30, 2026.
Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation
However, the plan has exposed Mr Gachagua to competition from politicians unwilling to accept his leadership of the region.
The most prominent among them is Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, whose resurgence through the People’s Party of Kenya (PPK) and engagements with People’s Liberation Party (PLP) leader Martha Karua and Dr Matiang’i have created an alternative opposition mobilisation platform.
Democratic Party (DP) boss Justin Muturi and Safina leader Jimi Wanjigi also have independent political ambitions in the Mountain.
According to Prof Kindiki, the region risks losing its political standing if it joins an opposition alliance without a principal from Mt Kenya.
“After William Ruto, we are next. In the other team, we are number 20. It will take 200 years before our turn comes,” he said.
Mr Gachagua faces the dilemma of convincing voters to abandon an administration in which one of their own occupies the second highest office on land for an opposition arrangement whose leadership and power-sharing formula remain unsettled.
His political future is also complicated by the uncertainty surrounding his October 2024 impeachment as deputy president, with an appeal pending after the High Court declined to quash the Senate resolution removing him from office.
Mr Geoffrey Mboya, an analyst, says the question is no longer whether Mr Gachagua can contest the presidency, but whether he can retain enough influence to determine the region’s political direction and negotiate its place in government.
Mr Gachagua’s efforts to build bridges with Ms Karua, Mr Muturi and other regional leaders have encountered resistance, with smaller parties insisting that coalition-building should not require surrendering their identities to DCP.
Mr Musyoka faces a different version of the same problem. Having positioned himself as one of the leading presidential hopefuls, the Wiper leader must maintain his authority over Machakos, Kitui and Makueni counties while negotiating a national coalition in which other politicians have similar ambitions.
The emergence of former Kitui governor Charity Ngilu in Mr Gachagua’s calculations could complicate that equation.
Opposition politician Charity Ngilu during the 23rd memorial service for former Vice-President Michael Kijana Wamalwa at his Milimani home in Kitale, Trans Nzoia County, on August 23, 2026.
Photo credit: Jared Nyataya | Nation
The DCP leader recently hosted Ms Ngilu at his residence, days after meeting Mr Musyoka, in what insiders interpreted as an attempt to widen his influence in Lower Eastern and create an alternative centre should negotiations with the Wiper leader fail.
Mr Musyoka invokes the 2002 National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) model, in which Ms Ngilu joined forces with Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga and other opposition leaders to end Kanu’s 39-year rule.
However, the engagement has unsettled some in Wiper. Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua accuses Ms Ngilu of undermining Mr Musyoka, while Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo defends “the need for an inclusive opposition arrangement”.
Mr Musyoka has welcomed Mr Gachagua’s willingness to support whoever secures the joint opposition ticket.
The delicate balance is that Mr Gachagua needs Wiper’s political machinery and Ukambani support, but reaching out to Ms Ngilu could weaken the regional leader whose cooperation he needs.
In Western, Mr Sifuna’s growing political profile is challenging the established political order dominated by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya.
The Nairobi Senator has attracted support from political veterans and younger leaders alike. Former Cabinet ministers Musikari Kombo, Fred Gumo, Noah Wekesa and Philip Masinde are among those backing Mr Sifuna’s ambitions.
Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has positioned himself at the forefront of the movement, saying the region needs a different political direction.
This has placed Mr Sifuna on a collision course with Mr Mudavadi, Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Oparanya, who are aligned with President Ruto.
Mr Mudavadi’s recent remarks to Western Kenya residents that they cannot demand development and state positions without voting for United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidates underline the efforts by the government to consolidate the region behind the President.
“You don’t vote for us, and then you say: ‘give us’. Stop joking,” he said.
The contest in Western, according to observers, is not simply about who will become the region’s spokesman, but about whether the region will remain in the government camp or become a pillar of the opposition.
In Gusii, Dr Matiang’i’s efforts to position himself as a national figure face competition from former Kisii governor James Ongwae, incumbent Kisii Governor Simba Arati and former Chief Justice David Maraga.
The launch of the United Super Alliance Party (USAP) by Mr Ongwae on November 5 raises questions about his intentions in a region that Dr Matiang’i has been seeking to consolidate support for his presidential ambitions.
Mr Ongwae says his outfit is intended to build a national political institution anchored on accountability, inclusive governance and economic emancipation. He has, however, left its presidential direction to party delegates.
Observers say the move could complicate Dr Matiang’i’s efforts to consolidate the region behind his candidacy. The former Interior CS also faces competition from Mr Arati, whose influence in ODM has been reinforced by his role in recruitment drives.
The governor has been receiving leaders seeking political platforms and strengthening the party’s grassroots structures. His growing stature could give him leverage in determining the region’s political direction.
Mr Arati has asked Dr Matiang’i to reconsider his position and join ODM, saying the opposition lacks direction.
Dr Matiang’i has resisted attempts to have the opposition’s presidential candidate determined by a small group, insisting on an inclusive process based on merit, qualifications and the voters’ choice.
“His arrogance will prevent the opposition from uniting and winning the election,” he said in reference to Mr Gachagua.
Mr Maraga also features in the wider Gusii political equation, having declared his interest in the presidency. His presence introduces another claimant to the region’s political support, though the extent to which the camps will compete for the same constituency remains to be seen.
“For Dr Matiang’i, the challenge extends beyond securing a place in the presidential negotiations. He must demonstrate that his regional support remains intact amid competing political formations and personalities,” Mr Peterson Duke, an analyst, says.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i speaks during the handover of leadership of the Jubilee Party at the party headquarters in Nairobi on September 22, 2026.
Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group
Even President Ruto, who enjoys incumbency, is not immune to the politics of internal rivalry.
His relationship with Mr Moi, the son of former President Daniel arap Moi, deteriorated following the collapse of their much-publicised political deal.
The October 2025 agreement saw Mr Moi withdraw from the Baringo Senate seat by-election and clear the way for UDA candidate Vincent Chemitei.
In return, Mr Moi says he expected the government to honour commitments on development and jobs for residents of Baringo.
Addressing elders and opinion leaders at his Kabarak home last month, the former senator accused the President of reneging on the deal and allowing his allies to attack him and his family.
“I did not look for the President. He came for me. There had been overtures for a long time. I am not one who divides the people. I am not one who goes against an agreement,” he said.
Mr Moi asked Baringo locals to allow him to pursue a different political path, raising the possibility of renewed competition for influence in the Rift Valley, traditionally regarded as the President’s stronghold.
His decision to withdraw from the Baringo Senate contest had been seen as a major concession by President Dr Ruto. The fallout now threatens to reopen divisions the handshake was to resolve.
Though Mr Moi has not declared his next political move, his renewed engagement with elders from the Rift Valley and criticism of the government have raised questions about whether he could join the opposition.
For President Ruto, the risk is that a disagreement initially centred on an unfulfilled political bargain could develop into a broader contest over the loyalty of voters in the Rift Valley.
Even though ODM leader Oburu Oginga is not in the presidential race, his rivalry with Siaya Governor James Orengo – who has acquired the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) – could have huge implications for the political direction of Nyanza and the opposition’s arithmetic.
Siaya Governor James Orengo during an interview in Kisumu on October 16, 2026.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
Following the death of ODM founder and leader Raila Odinga, the party has split into two camps – Linda Ground, associated with Dr Oginga and those supporting cooperation with President Ruto, and Linda Mwananchi, associated with Mr Orengo, Mr Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. Mr Orengo, however, appears to be drifting from Mr Sifuna’s camp.
“Building a national coalition requires more than agreements between principals. It demands the ability to manage competing interests in their strongholds,” Mr Chris Omore, an advocate, says.
