Ruto's 2027 puzzle: Keep Kindiki or chase the numbers?

That has placed Mr Gachagua's successor, Prof Kithure Kindiki, under increasing pressure to demonstrate his ability to retain the region for the President.

The challenge is particularly significant as the 2027 succession battle gathers pace, with competing political formations seeking to secure the support of the Mountain, one of the country's most important voting blocs.

Murang'a Governor Irungu Kang'ata says President Ruto will eventually have to decide on his running mate, with the choice expected to be closely tied to the search for votes in Mt Kenya.

“The biggest problem is that the Mountain appears to have largely moved away from President Ruto to align with Mr Gachagua and the DCP. The running mate position ideally is used to marshal critical numbers. Doubts abound whether Prof Kindiki can manage that task and, if not, what to do with him,” he said.

Also Read: Re-elect Ruto to keep power, our seats secure, Kindiki tells Mt Kenya

Mr Kang'ata's assessment comes against the backdrop of the October 2024 impeachment, which was backed by the National Assembly and later approved by the Senate.

At the time, Mogotio MP Reuben Kiborek expressed confidence that Mr Gachagua's removal would allow the country to move on.

“We are now happy that we have done away with this divisive man who will now be forgotten in two weeks and our country will now move forward in unity,” Mr Kiborek said after the National Assembly endorsed the impeachment motion on October 8, 2024.

Mr Gachagua, however, went on to establish a political base outside the government and has since positioned himself as a prominent critic of President Ruto.

His growing influence has complicated the task of consolidating Mt Kenya support behind Prof Kindiki.

The President's options are further constrained by the constitutional position of the Deputy President. Unlike a Cabinet Secretary, Prof Kindiki cannot simply be removed from office through a presidential decision.

Advocate Geoffrey Kahuthu says Article 150 of the Constitution provides the framework for removal of a Deputy President, incorporating the procedures under Articles 144 and 145.

“The law directs that the exact trial and investigative processes used to remove a President apply to the Deputy President with necessary modifications,” he said.

Article 145 provides for removal through impeachment, while Article 144 establishes a procedure for removal on grounds of physical or mental incapacity.

Also Read: Who pairs with who? The Opposition's 2027 ticket dilemma

Prof Kindiki has also made clear that he has no intention of resigning.

“Those telling me to quit are out of order. I cannot build a house, furnish it and then I leave to be living in the forest. There are those who are telling me to quit. I won't quit,” he said.

This has raised questions about how the President would handle the Deputy President's position if he eventually decides that a different running mate would give him a better chance of retaining the presidency.

Advocate Timothy Kariuki says a second attempt to remove a Deputy President in the same term would carry significant political consequences.

“It would make him a political clown to initiate a second round of removing his Deputy inside four years. The perception he would be confirming is that he is the problem and not his deputies. He would be confirming that his goal was to capture power in the presidency and exercise it without any oversight,” he said.

Political commentator Peter Kagwanja believes the President could instead seek to strengthen other positions within government to accommodate influential political figures and help build a wider electoral coalition.

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“His current political loyalists understand the dilemma and if they are genuine in partnering with President Ruto, they should be practical in their demands. Those demanding the position of the running mate should ask themselves about the repercussions. They should be helping the President come up with some other deceptively powerful posts to help him bait votes,” he said.

Prof Kagwanja said some responsibilities previously associated with the Deputy President appeared to be moving elsewhere, raising the possibility of the creation or strengthening of another powerful position.

“I won't be surprised if he attempts to create a situation that creates about two or three positions that can sell as extended running mate positions. It is about working around legal gaps and capitalising on the leeway he is given of constituting his Executive in the best way he believes helps him deliver his mandate,” he said.

The debate over Prof Kindiki's political future has also coincided with efforts to consolidate support from the eastern side of the Mountain.

Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku has been pushing the idea of a “Mt Kenya East” bloc comprising Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kirinyaga and Isiolo counties.

Mr Ruku has argued that the region could command about two million votes and support President Ruto's presidential bid and Prof Kindiki as his running mate.

But recent electoral contests have highlighted the difficulty of translating government presence into votes. In the Ol Kalou by-election, the government-backed candidate secured only a fraction of the votes cast, providing ammunition to critics questioning the administration's support in the region.

Also Read: Gachagua unveils 2027 Mt Kenya strategy after Ol Kalou victory

Political scientist Gasper Odhiambo says the uncertainty surrounding Prof Kindiki's position reflects the wider political pressures within the President's camp.

“It is not an amusing situation. A Deputy President without numbers to show is reflecting in an abusive political marriage where Prof Kindiki appears to be undergoing interpersonal abuse through coercive power dynamics, public humiliation and systematic isolation. Him refusing to exit voluntarily puts the President in a re-election trap,” he said.

Mr Gachagua has also weighed in, urging Prof Kindiki to remain in office while warning him about the political pressures surrounding his position.

He said the circumstances facing Prof Kindiki reminded him of the period before his own impeachment.

“You remember I started like this. I would say exactly those things about Ruto's government being ours and how I could not leave to live in the forest. I also refused to quit. The very same script that I went through is replaying with the same templates against Prof Kindiki,” he said.

Mr Gachagua argued that Prof Kindiki's failure to consolidate support in Mt Kenya was becoming a central issue in the debate over the 2027 running mate.

“ In picking Kindiki as my replacement, President Ruto wanted a man who would be like an insurance company to write off the impeachment accident. Kindiki has failed. But he is our son. Mountain will never let an innocent man go down,” Mr Gachagua said.

Governor Kang'ata says the President's options remain difficult.

“You retain Kindiki as your running mate, you lose winning numbers. You don't pick him, the little votes you would have got in the Mountain moves away. You remove him, a war of who to replace him might erupt in your friendly regions. In short, you have a big dilemma facing you,” he said.

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