With his loyal Mt Kenya MPs growing increasingly unpopular and Cabinet Secretaries from the region without political clout, President William Ruto may have unwittingly authored his own misfortune, making it harder for him to win back a restless mountain.
While some say he has survived politically and ultimately rose to power through a brilliant strategy of propping up greenhorns whose loyalty to him is unquestionable, others argue this same plan may now be his waterloo in Mt Kenya.
During 2017 Jubilee party primaries, then deputy president William Ruto was accused of orchestrating the ouster of stronger Mt Kenya politicians to prop up greenhorns who proved useful during his successful 2022 presidential elections.
The clever political fox that he is, Dr Ruto teamed up with Mr Uhuru Kenyatta to successfully contest the 2013 presidential election, but during campaigns for their re-election in 2017, he was also working on a parallel strategy to further his ambition to succeed his boss after the 2022 election.
When he was mandated by President Kenyatta to coordinate the 2017 Jubilee Party nominations, the likes of Peter Kenneth (Nairobi), William Kabogo (Kiambu), Jamleck Kamau (Murang'a), and John Mututho (Naivasha) were among political heavyweights who claimed Dr Ruto influenced their political downfall to pave the way for the greenhorns.
Jubilee Party chairman Mr David Murathe admitted that "those who were dealing with the nominations and had an eye in the 2022 presidential race deliberately rigged out strong Mt Kenya candidates so as to install those who they could manipulate".
Mr Murathe was to say later in 2021 that "President Kenyatta realised it when it was too late and this is part of the reason that we were not enthusiastic to support our Deputy President (Dr Ruto) to succeed him in State House in 2022".
Dr Ruto went ahead to lead a rebellion against Mr Kenyatta in Mt Kenya in 2018 with a majority of the region’s MPs all the way to the 2022 General Election, emerging victorious over the incumbent’s preferred successor, opposition leader Raila Odinga .
But fast forward, in his presidency now, President Ruto's similar strategy of seeking to establish a new team of greenhorns to see him through 2027 reelection appears to be falling flat on its face.
Though on Tuesday he maintained that he will succeed and shame his naysayers, the president appears to be neck deep in an awkward situation where he is alarmingly unpopular in the area, just two years after he swept the region off its feet with an 87 percent rating.
He was jeered and booed inside a Catholic Church and also denied a chance to address roadside rallies when he toured Embu County on Saturday.
His political loyalists in the region are finding it hard to hold outdoor meetings with the electorate to advance his development and 2027 reelection agenda.
Mr Gachagua has since accepted his fate, declaring that President Ruto be given time to work but face judgement day in the 2027 General Election.
"If I was the problem, well, I am now out of the way. They should now work for the people with equal speed and enthusiasm they displayed when they were impeaching me. Life for the people should be working out of the better since their scapegoat that was me is now out of the way," Mr Gachagua said on Sunday while in Kajiado County.
To aggravate his dilemma, the president recently kicked out from his cabinet seasoned personalities from Mt Kenya and replaced majority of them with little known individuals with minimal political clout to help him in the crisis facing him.
When he restructured his government to bring in Mr Odinga’s camp to help him get a firmer grip on the nation, President Ruto kicked out Mithika Linturi as Agriculture Cabinet Secretary, Moses Kuria from Public Service docket, Prof Njuguna Ndung'u from the National Treasury and Mr Zachary Njeru from Lands.
Cabinet Secretaries from Mt Kenya who are fighting to assert their influence are Ms Alice Wahome, who isn’t as vocal as she used to be, and Mr Justin Muturi in whose Embu backyard the President was humiliated.
Mr Kuria was to later be appointed as President's economic advisor, but he, too, has been facing hostile crowds anytime he attempts to defend Ruto's rule in Mt Kenya.
Others are Ms Rebecca Miano (Tourism and Wildlife), Mr Eric Mugaa (Water, Sanitation and Irrigation), Mr Andrew Karanja (Agriculture and Livestock Development) and Ms Margaret Ndung'u (Information, Communication and the Digital Economy).
Mr Linturi on Wednesday told Nation.Africa that "the use of greenhorns appears to be this government's agenda...the schemes raging underground ahead of 2027 are tailored to kick out those who can stand their ground and replace them with those whose agenda is to gain a comfort zone and be submissive".
Mr Linturi said Mt Kenya must this time round remain vigilant and refuse to have its political pillars demolished and rebuilt to the whims of masters of divide and rule.
Former Kiambu governor Mr Ferdinand Waititu told Nation.Africa "this is typical of Dr Ruto schemes who to effectively command his action plan, he invests in talents that are submissive, dutiful and unconditionally loyal".
But Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri has severally come to the defense of Dr Ruto saying "Mt Kenya drove itself into problems for investing it's trust in “a tribal chieftain and a saboteur who drove the president to seek cooperation of the opposition to stabilize his government.”
Mr Waititu said "those of us who have walked the political journey with Dr Ruto since 2013 will tell you that we knew in advance that he would find it hard working with abrasive and uncompromising character of Gachagua".
“We knew somewhere near 2027 he would start dropping serious political actors,” he added.
Mr Waititu said the looming de-whipping of those who helped him win the presence especially in Mt Kenya is enough evidence of how President Ruto plays his cards.
"Apart from his unpopular political loyalists and little known Cabinet Secretaries, the president is seen to attempt to build new centres of influence through appointments and de-whipping," he said.
President Ruto has recently won the support of The National Democrats (TND) Party boss Mr Thuo Mathenge aka Wanguku who he has appointed into government.
The TND is a party that had been speculated Mr Gachagua had started the process of takeover for 2027 polls.
Further, former Mungiki chief Mr Maina Njenga has of late been giving indicators that he will be fighting in President Ruto's terraces ahead of 2027. He is already taking on Mr Gachagua.
"President Ruto's problem is of his own making,” argued Kirinyaga Senator Mr Kamau Murango.
“Those who advised him to impeach Gachagua are to blame. That impeachment coupled with draconian Finance Bill 2024 saw Mt Kenya voters take themselves to the opposition leaving their leaders to be in government with the president.”
Kajiado Senator Mr Seki Lenku told Nation.Africa that the only open window for President Ruto was to go direct to the people of Kenya, listen to them, make peace with them and strike a 2027 deal with them.
"Otherwise, this tactic of divide and rule, exchanging words with the clergy and appearing angered when truth is spoken to power will only make his case even dire," he said.
Embu governor Cecily Mbarire, who also is the President's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party chair, believes the head of state's case is not as badly painted in Mt Kenya.
"What we have are politicians recruiting our people into a culture of showing contempt to leaders...politicians who want to introduce the unacceptable culture of intolerance among our people...the president is very popular here," Ms Mbarire said a day after the president was booed in her county.
The UDA Secretary General Mr Omar Hassan also visited Embu after the day of shame and talked down politics of gatekeeping, isolationist and regionalism.
"Our president loves the Mountain and has good plans for you. We should build a rapport to win us development and continuity. We should refuse manipulation from those who want us to be at loggerheads," he said.
But Manyatta MP Mr Gitonga Mukunji advised the governor and Mr Omar to be realistic and appreciate the pulse of the ground.
"The president only drove himself into crowd trouble when he started praising things that are not working. He started saying the new health insurance finding model is working while here in Embu the sector is in a mess. Ms Mbarire should advise her boss with honesty," he said.
