Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s possible exit from local political scene should he succeed in his Africa Union (AU) Commission job quest portends major realignments that could leave a trail of beneficiaries and casualties ahead of 2027 General Election.
Mr Odinga seeks to succeed the current AUC chairperson Moussa Faki, who is set to leave office in February next year.
This implies that should the former premier win the slot for a four-year term, he would serve until 2028, a year after the country’s next poll.
Analysts observe that such an engagement at the continental level would keep him away from local politics, consequently diminishing his influence in the next poll.
This, they say may hurt politicians, especially from his strongholds of Nyanza, who are perceived to rely on the political wave created by his presidential candidature, to win their seats.
Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga (left) with former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo in Nairobi on February 15, 2024.
Photo credit: Lucy Wanjiru | Nation Media Group
It could also hand a lifeline to ODM rebels, since the AU job could be interpreted as a rapprochement between Mr Odinga and President William Ruto , consequently thawing hostility between the two political camps.
President Ruto would also be a major beneficiary as he would have managed to exit Mr Odinga from the 2027 equation. Mr Odinga remains his main political challenger.
Some analysts argue that the possible absence of Mr Odinga in the race could hand Dr Ruto an easy win in his re-election bid.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi , who is also the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs, has made it apparent that President Ruto’s administration is vouching for Mr Odinga to capture the continental seat.
The possible scenarios are likely to give rise to new centres of power within the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition as politicians in the camp would be seeking to realign with the coalition’s potential flagbearer.
It is also expected to trigger succession politics within Mr Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) as well as in his Luo Nyanza bastion, with senior leaders from the region expected to step up to fill the political vacuum set to be created by the former premier’s exit from active politics.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) Eugene Wamalwa are some of the opposition politicians, who have declared their plans to run for the presidency in the 2027 General Election.
For Mr Musyoka, it clears his path for the presidency having been forced in the past to shelve his ambition to back Mr Odinga in 2013, 2017 and 2022 polls.
Azimio La Umoja Coalition Leader Raila Odinga (left) confers with Wiper Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka during a past event.
Photo credit: Francis Nderitu | Nation Media Group
On the flip side, Mr Odinga’s possible exit from active politics could deny him the much-needed support in mobilising his support bases of Nyanza, Western, Coast and others in rallying behind Mr Musyoka. Mr Odinga is a seasoned political mobiliser on the campaign trail.
Mr Musyoka has already indicated his plans to step up and take up Mr Odinga’s role in the opposition coalition.
In a press conference on Sunday where the coalition endorsed Mr Odinga's quest for the AU job, Mr Musyoka said the opposition remains united and will continue with its oversight role in pushing the Kenya Kwanza administration to deliver to the people.
“Azimio remains focused and united on issues close to the people and gives assurance of our commitment to always address their concerns,” said Mr Musyoka.
Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, a close ally of Mr Musyoka, said whether Mr Odinga takes up the AU job or not, he has made his “intention on backing Kalonzo clear.”
He said Mr Musyoka has always supported Mr Odinga in his previous presidential bid, stating that the former Vice President is ready to pull all the stops in ensuring the former premier succeeds in his continental quest.
“I firmly believe that whether Raila goes or doesn’t go for the AU job, I believe he is very intentional in supporting Kalonzo,” said Mr Wambua.
He said that Mr Odinga would remain their leader even with reduced political engagement locally. He said the coalition would continue engaging Mr Odinga even if he will not be participating in the local politics.
“He doesn’t need to be involved in our politics directly, but he remains our leader and we will continue consulting him,” he added.
Azimio leaders led by Raila Odinga, Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa and Wycliffe Oparanya address journalists at their Capitol Hill offices in Nairobi on January 30, 2024.
Photo credit: Lucy Wanjiru | Nation Media Group
University lecturer and political analyst Prof Macharia Munene said Mr Musyoka will have to step up his political activities if he wants to inherit Mr Odinga’s bastions.
Prof Munene, however, noted that nothing bars Mr Odinga from resigning from the post to come back and run for the top seat in 2027.
“Kalonzo should forget about relying on Raila for support and go out of his way to look for votes. Ruto may choose to support Raila with a condition that he exits local politics,” he said.
He said the decision to go for the seat will give rise to new leaders seeking to succeed Mr Odinga both at his party and traditional strongholds.
Prof David Monda – a political science lecturer at City University of New York – said Mr Odinga remains the only threat to Dr Ruto’s re-election.
He said Mr Musyoka would remain a secondary candidate unless Mr Odinga openly endorsed him for the top seat. He argues that Mr Odinga could still opt to run by quitting the post in the run-up to the next election.
“I think if Raila can get the AU slot, Kalonzo will still be a secondary candidate to him unless he categorically abandons the presidency in 2027. Raila can opt to take the position and still run for the presidency in 2027,” said Prof Monda.
“In the unlikely event Raila does get the AU slot, it will boost Kalonzo if he is endorsed by Raila. However, I think this is unlikely as Raila is still the biggest threat to a second successive term for Ruto,” he explained.
In ODM and Nyanza, politicians around Mr Odinga remained guarded as they studied possible political implications.
Some of the ODM MPs have in the past been beneficiaries of a six-piece vote by riding on Mr Odinga’s candidature while rallying the region to vote for candidates on the Orange party ticket.
President William Ruto with a section of ODM leaders at State House on February 7, 2023.
Photo credit: Courtesy
Some of Mr Odinga’s allies have insisted that nothing bars Mr Odinga from running in 2027. They said he will continue playing politics even if he wins the regional seat.
The decision by Mr Odinga to go for the seat was, however, received with excitement by some of the ODM rebel politicians .
MPs Elisha Odhiambo (Gem), Caroli Omondi (Suba South), Gideon Ochanda (Bondo), Phelix Odiwuor (Lang’ata) and Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda are some of the rebel MPs.
Mr Odhiambo told Nation that some of the ODM MPs will now have nothing to tell the electorate in the next poll without Mr Odinga on the ballot.
He said most of the sitting members asked people to vote for them so that they could defend Mr Oding at the national level.
“If he wins, it means he will not participate in local politics. Politicians who have been saying they are working for Raila up there will have nothing to say this time. They better deliver on their promises because there will be no Raila at the ballot,” said Mr Odhiambo.
Separately, Mr Omondi cautioned ODM MPs against making remarks that could work against Mr Odinga’s candidature.
“He has the necessary credentials and experience required to deliver on the mandate of the position. He is not retiring from politics," said Mr Omondi, who is among lawmakers from Nyanza backing President Ruto.
Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka (right) and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna address members of the public at Kenyatta Market in Nairobi on February 18, 2024.
Photo credit: Billy Ogada | Nation Media Group
"But politicians should refrain from making statements that would undermine his candidature for AU Chairmanship by opining that his tour of duty will serve as a short interlude before another presidential bid,” Mr Omondi added.
In an earlier interview, Mr Musyoka told ODM MPs that they could win without having Mr Odinga on the ballot. Mr Musyoka suggested that some ODM politicians always want their party leader to contest for their survival.
“You know there are people who depend on my candidature to win their constituency seats, gubernatorial seats, MCA seats… but I was able to prove to Kenyans that you don’t need to be on the ballot to get people winning,” Mr Musyoka said.
“I wasn’t on the ballot and Wiper emerged stronger than ever before. I want to tell people who rely on my brother Raila and cling to him because he must be on the ballot so that they can win. I want to tell them they can win minus my brother Raila being on the ballot,” he added.
