President William Ruto who appears to have lost the support of vote-rich Mt Kenya is left in dire need of a deal with ODM boss Raila Odinga to shore up his 2027 re-election bid.
And that is assuming Mr Odinga holds onto his support bases, which in itself isn't enough in the event the opposition leader, for the first time since 2007, finds himself without the backing of Wiper party boss Kalonzo Musyoka who has a significant vote bloc.
In 2022 presidential elections, which Dr Ruto narrowly beat Mr Odinga, the president bagged 87 per cent of the Mt Kenya vote, which translated to nearly half (42 per cent) of his national tally.
President Ruto hit the 2022 finishing tape with 7.18 million votes (50.49 per cent) followed closely by Mr Odinga who garnered 6.94 million votes (48.85 per cent).
Mr Odinga, too, managed to force a close contest because with the support of the outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta, he secured 12 per cent - over one million votes - in Mt Kenya, the first time to score such a margin in his five presidential runs.
With the exception of 2007, when Mr Musyoka ran for president which was widely seen as a factor in helping President Mwai Kibaki retain power after a controversial narrow lead over his main challenger, Mr Odinga, the former vice president has been the ODM leader's running mate twice - 2013 and 2017.
Mr Musyoka also supported Mr Odinga in 2022 when he ran on a joint ticket with Martha Karua but the ODM leader has lost narrowly in all these elections with the exception of his debut run in 1997, when he was way behind the winner, President Daniel Arap Moi and the runners-up, Mr Kibaki.
It's against this background that observers argue President Ruto needs the backing of Mr Odinga to avoid the embarrassment of being ousted after one term and even then, their coalition is still weakened without the support of Mr Musyoka and Mt Kenya.
After getting convinced by a Mt Kenya breakaway wing, led by Majority leader Kimani Ichung'wa and Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri, that Mt Kenya voters were not prompted by Rigathi Gachagua to vote for him, the president agreed to a plot to impeach him as the Deputy President.
He replaced him with Prof Kithure Kindiki in the hope that a mountaineer to replace a fellow mountaineer was good pacifying factor that would keep the 2022 support for his presidency alive.
The reaction by the majority of Mt Kenya voters was instantly furious and determined to withdraw the overwhelming support, indications now being of a region that wants 2027 to find it farthest possible from President Ruto's corner.
With opposition winds against his government raging from all corners, that includes the pulpit, civil society and Gen Z population, President Ruto's goose appears set to be cooked, but this being politics, he still remains a man with equal opportunity.
Political analyst and university lecturer Prof Peter Kagwanja argues that "President Ruto minus Mt Kenya but plus Mr Odinga equals a second term".
The same maths are being floated by former Murang'a governor Mr Mwangi wa Iria who says "President Ruto is around State House tenancy till 2032 courtesy of our Odinga's support base".
But Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT) don Mr Charles Mwangi says Odinga minus Mr Musyoka is nothing of help to President Ruto.
Mr Mwangi argues that there was a time (2007) Dr Ruto was in the same camp with Mr Odinga but we're defeated by Mwai Kibaki.
He says "it is distressing to hear people jump to conclusions that Mr Odinga will help President Ruto with electoral numbers to bag a second term".
Mr Mwangi argues that Mr Odinga is a compound component made up of others, majority boost being Mr Musyoka.
"For President Ruto to reap maximum benefit out of Odinga backing, it must be with Musyoka in tow. Anything less than that risks his second term bid with outright loss or at best, a win without the 50 plus one threshold which is a must," he said.
He also advances a theory that even in 2007, Mr Musyoka was together with Dr Ruto to campaign for Mr Odinga to be president but too, failed.
"I want us to disabuse the notion that Dr Ruto together with Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka means automatic ballot triumph. It is a problematic contest formation that can win or fail...hence why I see a president not exactly with a guaranteed 2027 escape route," he said.
In the 2022 General Elections results, Mr Odinga bagged Musyoka's controlled backyards of Kitui with 235,000 votes, Machakos with 305,000 and Makueni where he got 229,000 votes.
Mr Musyoka also enjoys pockets of loyal voters at the coastal, Nairobi and Mt Kenya blocks which makes him to Mr Odinga what saddles are to a horse.
Makueni Senator Mr Dan Maanzo told Nation.Africa that "in 2027 Mr Musyoka will be striking working relations with other formations that do not include president Ruto".
President William Ruto with ODM leader Raila Odinga at Nyayo National Stadium during a past Jamhuri Day celebration.
Photo credit: DPPS
He said "we are already striking a deal with progressive ambitions that have been angered by the bad governance manifest all over, insensitivity to Kenyans feelings and non-responsive demeanour when truth is spoken to power."
Mr Maanzo said "you can without gear of contradiction count Mr Musyoka to be on the side of the people...where hope resides and where promise illuminates."
So far, Mr Musyoka appears to have formed a network with Mt Kenya for 2027 though the same Mountain is pursuing Trans Nzoia Mr George Natembeya and former Interior CS Dr Fred Matiang'i.
Mr Mwangi added that "it should not be forgotten that Mr Odinga's final tally had about 12 percent of Mt Kenya votes that former president Uhuru Kenyatta and Martha Karua helped him gain".
He said that it is unlikely that a restless Mt Kenya that has already exhibited foul mood against President Ruto and his loyalists will allow any meaningful split in its voting behaviour.
Already, President Ruto appears to have already set about crafting his reelection plan with Mr Odinga firmly in the equation. He has since brought in Mr Odinga's loyalists into the cabinet which he has christened the broad-based government.
On July 19, President Ruto had announced incorporation of Mr John Mbadi (National Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy and Petroleum), Hassan Joho (Mining, Blue Economy, and Maritime Affairs) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Co-operatives and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises Development), all being Mr Odinga loyalists.
The Azimio boss was to reap further when Ms Beatrice Askul was appointed the East African Cooperation Affairs and Regional Development CS as Ms Dorcas Oduor was named the Attorney General with indicators that soon Mr Odinga will get Principal Secretaries slots in a purged government.
Political scientist Gasper Odhiambo says 2027 has President Ruto, Mt Kenya, Odinga and Mr Musyoka as the source contest formations.
He argues that "all indications are that Mt Kenya will not split despite President Ruto's bet on Kindiki to annex Mt Kenya East that has Meru (773,000 votes), Embu (335,000 votes) and Tharaka Nithi (232,000 votes).
To that end, Mr Odhiambo anticipates best fortunes for President Ruto's reelection being that which will have Odinga and Musyoka on his side.
"Other alignments that will be risky for President Ruto involve him teaming with Odinga but minus Mt Kenya and Mr Musyoka or the worst scenario that will be President Ruto minus Mr Odinga, minus Mr Musyoka and minus Mt Kenya," he said.
In a scaring scenario for the incumbent, Mr Odhiambo opines a possible scenario where "President Ruto, Mt Kenya, Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka independently contests the presidency and Mr Odinga emerges the winner but without the 50 plus one votes' constitutional demand to be declared winner".
He sees Mt Kenya emerging second and President Ruto limps in at third and Mt Musyoka emerges fourth.
"The constitution demands that the first two face off in a repeat poll and all the other losers team up against President Ruto," he said.
The issue is such a hot potato that Mr Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement's Secretary General Mr Edwin Sifuna curtly responded that he does not entertain anyone talking of 2027 this early.
"No one in their sane mind can be discussing 2027 in 2024. We have serious problems to address as a country and cannot just be thinking about elections all the time...I mean anyone talking about 2027, including you," he responded.
However, Mr Sifuna who on Wednesday accused President Ruto of taking the national assembly hostage together with Embakasi East MP Mr Babu Owino have appeared lukewarm to the broad based government, pundits saying the young Turks are not enthusiastic about a situation ODM might get swallowed by United Democratic Alliance and not contest 2027.
Mr Sifuna in what appears to be disdain for President Ruto rule suggested that the National assembly be dissolved if all decisions are made at State House and forwarded to legislators to be rubber-stamped.
"You can bet that if Mr Odinga throws his lot with President Ruto and in the process tries to barr ODM from fielding a presidential candidate we will surprise him with the mother of all rebellions," said an ODM party elected leader from Nairobi county.
The politician added that "we wait for February and see whether Odinga will bag the African Union Commission Chair. If he flops, we expect him to come and participate in our contesting the presidency. He will have to defect to UDA to support President Ruto's second term".
These are the sentiments that Suba East MP Junet Mohammed dismisses as unimaginable and intolerable sabotage.
"Let anyone who imagines succeeding Odinga in an unorthodox way will be fought out of town...It is Mr Odinga to give us directions. That has been the position that stands up to now and will apply until otherwise," Mr Mohammed declared last weekend when he attended the thanksgiving ceremony of Homa Bay governor Ms Gladys Wanga upon being elected ODM chair.
According to Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma, the ongoing working relations with President Ruto won't be ending anytime soon.
"The ODM will continue to support the head of state...The president is doing a fabulous job of taking our party leader to AUC position...One good turn deserves another and we look forward to this partnership enduring," he said on October 29, 2024 when he accompanied the president to a church function in Uasin Gishu county.
Mr Kaluma told the president that Mr Odinga followers were happy in the cooperation Mr Odinga was getting "and we are in this government to stay".
Mr Wandayi has since declared that his loyalty to a president Ruto is not a one and off affair "I look forward to the relationship weathering the storm to beyond 2027."
