Political realignments, including President Ruto's truce with opposition leader Raila Odinga , who is seeking a key role at the African Union, suggest that the era of Raila being cast as the scarecrow of Mt Kenya during elections may be coming to an end.
In the last four general elections, voters in Mt Kenya have largely turned out against Mr Odinga, who has been portrayed as the "enemy" by his rivals, and many in the region have made political careers out of fighting him.
The President's rapprochement with Mr Odinga has surprised regional leaders, including Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, with observers arguing that it has effectively put the two (Ruto and Raila) in the same corner, meaning that in 2027 the region will either support Ruto's re-election or rally around his opponent.
Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT) don Charles Mwangi says President Ruto risks inheriting the bogeyman role from Mr Odinga, whose previous attempts to scale the mountain have failed because of these scarecrow tactics.
"If you listen to the grassroots voice now in Mt Kenya, most anger has been transferred from Mr Odinga to President Ruto owing to governance issues that have induced public dissatisfaction as manifested in the recent Gen Z’s protests that were embraced even by area people not known to express themselves through confrontations," Mwangi says.
He adds that the formation of the so-called broad-based cabinet, which co-opted Mr Odinga's allies, was seen as a slap in the face to a region that alone gave the president 42 per cent of the vote in the last presidential election.
Political analyst Gasper Odhiambo told Nation.Africa on Sunday, August 18, that "Mt Kenya, which was driven to the polls by hatred for Odinga, should now be seen as outdated should he contest in 2027, stay away or try to play kingmaker".
He says: "Every time the region beats him, he rises and finds himself on the dining table. In fact, the most hilarious episode now is that President Ruto has put him in the kitchen... one is justified in feeling sorry for Mt Kenya and wondering if the hatred for him was ever justified".
"If there are any emotions that will drive the region's decision on the presidential election, it is most likely to be that of avenging President Ruto's perceived betrayal after the 2022 polls," says Odhiambo.
He predicts that "most likely, Mt Kenya can now even vote en-masse for Mr Odinga, just to teach the President a lesson about what happens when you break a pact".
Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni insists that "in 2027, Mt Kenya will be united against the political lies, deceit and governance tragedy that is this government".
Kioni suggests that "against anyone else, regardless who, contesting against this government will win...that is the common denominator in deciding for 2027...Mr Odinga will never be that point of departure again".
Mr Kioni says Mt Kenya has trusted and hated without wisdom in the past, but this time there will be no such naivety "because we have collectively become wiser and focused against this government".
It is a position that the secretary general of the president's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party, Hassan Omar, refuses to endorse, dismissing it as a bad idea worthy of the dustbin.
"There will be no entitlement on the part of any leader to influence things using tribal trump cards... There will be no gatekeeper politics for any region or for any set of voting blocks," Omar told Nation.Africa on Saturday.
He adds that national politics is a rollercoaster, "and those who think they can use noise to seek sympathy and sow the seeds of discord and division as a propeller for their politics will soon realise that it takes more than a platform to survive the endless dynamics of politics and provide enduring leadership".
It is such warnings from even State House mandarins that are said to be scaring Mt Kenya's political ambitions that their politics in the region ahead of 2027 without Mr Odinga as a punching bag needs a quicker plan B.
Most likely, says University don Prof Macharia Munene, fear is the only breeding ground for slogans like 'one man one shilling one vote', 'I am a villager', 'Mt Kenya unity', 'traitors' and 'formation of an area bargaining political party'.
Prof Munene says: "It could also be the system that is informing the emergence of young Turks in the region who want to usher in a wave of modern versus old generation.
He adds that creating another reason for euphoric voter turnout this time around could be the reason why the region's female politicians are trying to play the gender card by backing hopefuls such as Governors Anne Waiguru (Kirinyaga), Cecily Mbarire (Embu) and nominated MP Ms Sabina Chege.
It is a common perception that the Mt Kenya region has voted against Mr Odinga's shadow in the last five general elections.
But in these elections, former Bahati MP Kimani Ngunjiri argues, Mt Kenya's stated position at the ballot box has been a total betrayal.
"In 2002, we went to vote for Mwai Kibaki, but Mr Odinga had already infiltrated us. After we succeeded, he became our political problem where he rebelled and almost brought down our government to the point where we had to fight and share power with him after the 2007 elections".
In 2013, he adds, Mr Odinga was back as "an even bigger problem where we believed he wanted our Uhuru Kenyatta to be jailed at the International Criminal Court (ICC) and to defeat this perceived plan, we voted against him".
In the 2017 general election, Mt Kenya went to vote against him, but then President Kenyatta shocked the region by sneaking a handshake with him and, to the consternation of many, picked him as the ideal State House successor in the 2022 poll.
This prompted Mt Kenya voters to once again turn against Mr Odinga, their political problem, and resolutely embrace Dr Ruto, many arguing that it was simply because the Azimio boss was the other, unwelcome alternative.
The disillusionment was to be compounded when Dr Ruto ignored the fact that the 87 per cent approval he received in the region was expressly to mandate him to help the region's votes widen the gap between him and the government.
"We didn't even know how he got in. We saw him arrive. Even after Dr Ruto instructed Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua to lay traps to ensure Mr Odinga's detours failed. He is now in the government and enjoys more share in the cabinet than even the President himself," laments Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga.
Mr Kahiga says: "Now I think we have no choice but to accept Mr Odinga and wish him well now and in the future, hoping that he is not here to destroy this government and plunge us into another crisis.
The disillusionment was manifested in Mr Gachagua's live interview on vernacular radio stations on August 4 where he said: "We must have been wrong...that Mr Odinga despite being rejected in Mt Kenya ended up being embraced by our own Kibaki, then Kenyatta and now President Ruto...I am now saying that Mr Odinga is a good man and I will seek a deeper friendship with him. In fact, we will have no problem with any candidate because we have learnt our lesson.
Seasoned administrators like Nairobi County Commissioner Joseph Kaguthi, who has worked for all independent governments except President Ruto's, says Raila phobia seems to be heading towards irrelevance and could be replaced by love in these late hours of his political career.
"It was a voting tradition to prevent Mr Odinga from taking power, not necessarily to vote for an ideal candidate," he says.
Mr Kaguthi told Nation.Africa on Sunday that "it has been a nagging pain in the region since independence when founding father Mzee Jomo Kenyatta fell out with Odinga's father Jaramogi Oginga in 1966 and since then the two regions and the communities within them have been pitted against each other by their respective politicians".
Mr Kaguthi says the lowest the fomented political enmity stooped to was the pledge made by Mzee Kenyatta to the Agikuyu community never to be political bedfellows with the Lake Region formations.
Describing the move as "politically transmitted tribalism that was exposed in the 2002 elections after Mr Odinga supported Kibaki's candidature", he says the seed planted matured with time like good wine and exploded in 2007 when the country became a killing field in the post-election violence that followed.
He says the enmity driven by Odinga and his region has been a very powerful campaign tool in the Mt Kenya region "but now appears to be on its deathbed as a result of irreversible factors".
"With an ageing Mr Odinga (who will be 82 in 2027) seemingly ready to end his rumbling political career as chair of the African Union Commission, the emergence of a generation that no longer cares about oaths and tribe... and voters tired of voting against him but ending up eating with him, the power brokers in the mountain had no choice but to get something else as acceptance bait," argues Kaguthi.
Naivasha MP Jayne Kihara says that "despite feeling betrayed by Kenyatta's handshake with Odinga and now inclusion in government, we are now at a crossroads around 2027".
She adds that "where Mt Kenya region is right now, we can even declare our disinterest in the 2027 elections and demand that village elders meet somewhere and elect a president for us".
"We are not using history to make decisions for 2027 and beyond...rather we are united behind our own Mr Gachagua," says Maragua MP Mary wa Maua.
She says: "If Gachagua tells us to toe a certain line, that is where we will place our bets...but one thing I am sure of, we will not walk blindly carrying emotions against anyone...we have learnt our lessons that we dare not hate anyone to motivate our voting character".
Former Gatanga MP Nduati Ngugi observes that "Odinga's shrewdness in getting close to power has now put the voters of Mt Kenya in a mode where they no longer care who he ends up being in the forthcoming elections".
"We are looking at three scenarios where he contests for power again with an acceptable and strong Mt Kenya running mate, supports a formation of choice or declines any participation," says Ngugi.
Mr Ngugi notes that Mt Kenya can now deliberately vote for Mr Odinga because of his advanced age, "in the hope that at some point in his first term he will have an American Joe Biden moment and hand over political office to his deputy - a Mt Kenyan".
He says the second option is the trickiest because "should he endorse President Ruto for a second term, there will be a two-pronged problem on the mountain".
He defines these problems as "one, he may recommend the running mate to come from outside Mt Kenya and two, it will lead to isolation of Gikuyu, Embu and Meru communities".
He said Mr Odinga's withdrawal from politics would throw the contest wide open, deny Mt Kenya its intent and resolve to vote and thereby deny the election its sting.
Speaking in Murang'a County on Thursday, former civil service CS Moses Kuria said "we are seeing an emerging pattern where we are being told to unite before 2027 but in a confused manner".
He said Mt Kenya was being herded without focus as the petty issues of political hatred that were fodder in the run-up to the elections no longer applied.
"Let me advise you as a seasoned person in this politics of conflict... those issues are not going to be there. We had better start recognising that what matters now in this region are the real benefits of governance, especially the financial empowerment of our people".
