Opposition politicians Charity Ngilu, Michael Kijana Wamalwa, Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka and George Saitoti during the signing of the Narc Memorandum of Understanding in in 2002.
With Raila Odinga gone, the opposition is learning to walk without its anchor. New formations and a loose constellation of parties is attempting to forge one front to see if unity can survive without the figure that once made it inevitable.
“Odinga was the face of Kenya’s opposition, its spine, rhythm and rallying cry. His politics fused protest with purpose and dissent with hope. For millions of supporters, opposition without Odinga is unimaginable,” says political analyst Dismas Mokua.
Into the vacuum is emerging an increasingly visible united opposition, bringing together Democracy for the Citizen’s (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua, former President Uhuru Kenyatta represented by Jubilee Party deputy Fred Matiang’i, Wiper Patriotic Front boss Kalonzo Musyoka, Democratic Action Party-Kenya (DAP-K) chief Eugene Wamalwa, Democratic Party’s Justin Muturi and People’s Liberation Party (PLP) head Martha Karua.
Mr Jimi Wanjigi’s Safina, the Party of National Unity (PNU) under former minister Peter Munya, Chama Cha Kazi (CCK) of former minister Moses Kuria, Devolution Empowerment Party (DEP) now steered by Lenny Kivuti, Ferdinand Waititu’s Farmers Party and The National Party (TNP) associated with former Thika Town MP Patrick Wainaina wa Jungle are also in the mix.
The most striking entrant is the recently launched National Economic Development Party (NEDP), under former Nairobi governor Mike Sonko.
Loud, populist and unapologetically unconventional, Mr Sonko’s return to the political arena has injected fresh energy and controversy in opposition calculations.
While most of the parties have vowed to jointly challenge President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), currently in a broad-based arrangement with Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) – now steered by his brother and Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga – others are going solo.
President William Ruto and ODM party leader Oburu Oginga at Raila Odinga Stadium in Homa Bay Town during a sports tournament dubbed Genowa Governor’s Cup on December 28, 2025.
It is the unity exhibited by the Gachagua-Musyoka-led group that appears to be a thorn in the flesh of the UDA-ODM formation. The goal is clear – build a formidable force capable of challenging power in 2027 and beyond.
According to a recent Infotrak poll, however, President Ruto and Dr Oginga’s broad-based camp still commands a lead. The broad-based side polled 32 per cent, followed by the Gachagua-Musyoka group with 22 per cent.
Kenya Moja, which is steered by rebel Young Turks – including ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba – was third with 17 per cent. Some 29 per cent of Kenyans polled do not associate with the three formations.
Senator Oginga said on Thursday that ODM has three options – to be in a coalition with UDA, strike new partnerships or go it alone next year.
Dr Oginga said a decision must be made this year, adding that delays would lead to uncertainty.
Bondo Anglican Diocesan Bishop Prof David Kodia anoints Orange Democratic Movement party leader Dr Oburu Oginga during a Christmas service at St. Peter’s Parish, Nyamira, in Bondo on December 25, 2025. (Inset) Dr Oginga and the late Raila Odinga during a past Christmas service at the church.
The Gachagua-Musyoka group – calling itself the United Opposition – is also under pressure to resolve internal arithmetic.
In his end-of-year address, Mr Musyoka said the alliance would unveil its presidential flagbearer by March 2026, framing the early declaration as a show of unity and readiness against “an oppressive and morally bankrupt regime”.
“I am running for president,” Mr Musyoka said, citing a mandate from Wiper’s National Delegates Congress.
The United Opposition also has Dr Matiang’i, Ms Karua, Mr Wamalwa, Mr Muturi and Mr Munya.
Outside the coalition, other presidential hopefuls – Mr Wanjigi, rights activist Boniface Mwangi, Busia Senator Okiya Okoit Omtatah and former Chief Justice David Maraga – are shaping an increasingly crowded field.
The risk for the opposition is not lack of names but failure to settle on one early enough to build a coalition capable of matching the incumbency advantage.
Analysts are asking if the opposition can reinvent itself. Can unity be sustained beyond convenience? Who can command the authority and mass loyalty that Odinga wielded?
President Ruto has challenged the opposition to outline its agenda “instead of engaging in empty rhetoric”. He says his administration is focused on delivering transformative change.
President William Ruto addresses the nation at Eldoret State Lodge on December 31, 2025 moments before Kenyans ushered in the New Year.
“We won’t succumb to the blackmail and threats of ‘wantam’ for we know where we are going as a nation,” he said recently, referring to the opposition’s call to make him a one-term president.
As Mr Gachagua’s camp seeks to lead a united opposition into 2027, its coalition-building drive mirrors two decades of local politics in which alliances have proved decisive in tilting the balance of power.
The trend began during the 2002 General Election when the opposition coalesced under the National Rainbow Alliance Coalition (Narc) to end Kanu’s four-decade rule.
Led by Mwai Kibaki and backed by Odinga, Michael Wamalwa Kijana and Charity Ngilu, Narc capitalised on a “Kibaki Tosha” moment to sweep Daniel arap Moi’s chosen successor Uhuru Kenyatta aside.
Mr Musyoka says the goal is to have a Narc-like alliance.
“We shall be discussing the details. The parties will come together and compete. Whoever emerges victorious will carry the coalition’s flag,” Mr Musyoka said.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka addresses the media at SKM Command Centre in Nairobi on December 30, 2025.
“This is a liberation movement na raundi hii ni kukomboa Kenya (it’s time to save Kenya).”
He said calls for the alliance gathered momentum following the signing of a working relationship between President Ruto and Odinga in March last year.
The agreement, Mr Musyoka said, marked the end of Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition on whose ticket Odinga contested the presidency against Dr Ruto in 2022.
Mr Martin Oloo, an analyst, says politics in Kenya took a new twist following the UDA-ODM deal.
The “betrayal” and bolting out of the coalition by ODM, he said, necessitated the need to craft a new alliance for 2027 and beyond.
“For Ruto and his broad-based government to lose in 2027, there needs to be one big coalition like Narc. If the opposition does not unite, Ruto’s team will sponsor minority presidential candidates who chip away some votes,” Mr Oloo argues.
He adds Mr Gachagua, Mr Musyoka and the others have no option but to stick together.
“They must sacrifice for one another. They must calculate and field one presidential candidate.”
Multimedia University don Gitile Naituli says President Ruto has to contend with a complex and narrowing re-election path should the opposition unite.
“While incumbency gives him some structural advantages like state machinery, visibility and resources, there are hurdles that should be addressed deftly and strategically,” the professor of management and governance says.
“The removal of Gachagua as deputy president and fragmentation of Mt Kenya politics have shaken a pillar of Ruto’s 2022 victory.”
He says the region’s expectation of political reciprocity and economic empowerment remains unmet.
“Discontent over unfulfilled promises, youth unemployment and perceptions of betrayal could dent voter turnout or push the bloc towards neutrality or the opposition,” Prof Naituli says.
Mr Gachagua has given President Ruto notice.
“The people have a date with you. We have not forgotten what you did to our economy and our young men and women in June 2024,” he said.
Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua addresses the congregation during a church service at Christian Dominion Ministries in Kasarani on December 7, 2025.
“We do not forget the many lies and promises you make daily. We will remind you in 2027.”
Narc, which drove Kanu from power in 2002, did not survive for long. By 2005, fissures in the coalition gave rise to new formations.
Odinga led ODM, while Kibaki ran for re-election in 2007 on a Party of National Unity (PNU) ticket.
The election ended in bloodshed, but produced the Grand Coalition Government, with Kibaki as president and Odinga as premier.
The 2013 elections saw new alliances. Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Dr Ruto crafted the Jubilee Alliance, bringing together The National Alliance (TNA) and the United Republican Party (URP), while Odinga had the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) with Musyoka and Mr Moses Wetang’ula. Jubilee emerged victorious.
Ahead of the 2017 election, Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka rebranded as National Super Alliance (Nasa). The team included Mr Musalia Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula.
Nasa lost after a protracted battle that saw the Supreme Court annul Mr Kenyatta’s win before a repeat election consolidated Jubilee’s hold.
By 2022, Jubilee had crumbled, with president Kenyatta aligning with Odinga under Azimio, while Dr Ruto headed the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
Kenya Kwanza prevailed, propelling Dr Ruto to the presidency, with Mr Gachagua as his deputy. Mr Gachagua was replaced by Prof Kithure Kindiki after his impeachment.
From 2002, no single party has won the presidency. The alliances have been shaped by personality-driven leadership, ethnic balancing and power-sharing deals.
Prof Kindiki has called on Mt Kenya not to abandon the government for the opposition “whose leaders are clueless with no development agenda”.
