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William Ruto and Raila Odinga
Caption for the landscape image:

Raila’s political gambles

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President William Ruto with ODM party leader Raila Odinga at the funeral of Mama Phoebe Asiyo at Wikondiek in Homa Bay County on August 8, 2025.

Photo credit: PCS

Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga has never shied away from controversy, often consistently defending risky political positions he has taken.

From backing Mau Forest evictions that cost him political allies like Mr William Ruto ahead of the 2013 elections to his current crusade against the National Government Constituency Development Fund (NG-CDF), Mr Odinga continues to stake his legacy on positions that attract fierce criticism but, in his view, safeguard the Constitution.

His latest favourite subject has been repeatedly defending the botched deal with Indian multinational Adani Group to take over the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. The proposal was unpopular with Kenyans, but Mr Odinga has continued to defend it as the best deal for the country’s premier port of entry.

Whether by design or conviction, he frequently stirs political battles with his statements.

Raila Odinga and Gladys Wanga

ODM leader Raila Odinga (centre) with Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and other leaders at Devolution Conference in Homa Bay County on August 14, 2024.

Photo credit: George Odiwuor | Nation Media Group

When he stood before a packed hall in Homa Bay during the recent devolution conference, the veteran opposition leader looked unfazed by the simmering murmurs that followed his speech.

He sustained his calls to overhaul the NG-CDF and the National Government Affirmative Action Fund, proposing that all funds currently managed under the two programmes should be transferred to the counties.

He argued that the move would enhance efficiency, strengthen devolution, and improve service delivery.

He noted that the NG-CDF was introduced at a time when Kenyans were seeking equitable resource distribution under an “imperial presidency” that starved many regions of development funds.

“But the system has since changed. We removed the patronage model, adopted devolution, created a constitutional commission to allocate resources, and empowered Parliament on budgetary matters. In this new order, NG-CDF is obsolete,” he asserted.

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga delivers his speech during the commemoration of Katiba day on August 27, 2025 at Kenyatta International Convention Centre in Nairobi.

Photo credit: Billy Ogada | Nation Media Group

Speaking later during the Katiba@15 celebrations at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC), he again made a firm declaration: “I know my position is unpopular, but I don’t care. On this issue, there is no compromise.”

That single line summed up the paradox of Mr Odinga’s political career — a man willing to stake his reputation on principles, even if they appear politically suicidal.

To his supporters, he is a principled statesman who refuses to bend to populism. To his critics, he is reckless, tone-deaf, and increasingly out of touch with public sentiment.

Mr Odinga has angered MPs across the political divide, who view CDF as their main link to voters.

National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah shot back: “NG-CDF is what keeps our schools running, our children in class, and our roads maintained. Attacking NG-CDF is attacking the very lifeline of our people.”

Over the years, the ODM leader’s baffling remarks — from supporting unpopular economic deals to challenging entrenched political structures — have stirred heated debate. Some have cost him votes, while others have cemented his image as a fearless reformer.

One of Mr Odinga’s earliest controversial stands came during the Grand Coalition Government in 2009 when he was serving as the country’s Prime Minister.

Mau Forest

KFs rangers patrolling a depleted section of Maasai Mau Forest.  

Photo credit: Francis Mureithi | Nation Media Group

Then, he backed the eviction of thousands of settlers from the Mau Forest to protect the water catchment. At the time, he said he was ready to pay the ultimate political price and insisted, “We cannot allow our forests to be destroyed. This is about the survival of the country.”

But the political backlash was swift and brutal. The evictions affected thousands of families, many from the Rift Valley, and the resentment fuelled his ally, now-President, William Ruto’s rebellion within ODM.

Analysts argue that Mr Odinga’s uncompromising stance on Mau cost him the Rift Valley vote in the 2013 and 2017 elections.

“He was principled on Mau, yes, but politics is about numbers. He lost the Kalenjin bloc because he failed to balance conservation with the human cost,” says Prof Macharia Munene, a political historian.

The ODM leader has, in recent days, surprised many by openly supporting President Ruto’s decision to allow Indian billionaire Gautam Adani’s company to run parts of Kenya’s energy sector.

This came despite widespread backlash against Adani in India over corruption allegations and environmental controversies.

“Kenya needs investment. We cannot close doors to those who are willing to put money in our economy,” Mr Odinga insisted, defending the partnership.

Critics, however, saw hypocrisy.

But Mr Odinga was unmoved: “They can insult me, but the Constitution is clear. I will not stop saying the truth just because it is unpopular.”

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Former Prime Minister and ODM leader Raila Odinga during an interview at his home in Kare, Nairobi on July 19, 2025.

Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group

Perhaps even more explosive was his recent suggestion that Kenya’s 47 counties are too many and should be reduced.

“We created too many administrative units. Some of these counties are not viable. We must rethink this structure if we are serious about sustainable development,” he declared.

This struck at the heart of devolution, a system Kenyans overwhelmingly supported in the 2010 referendum. Governors and senators condemned the remarks.

Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka retorted: “Raila cannot, on the one hand, say he supports devolution and on the other hand propose cutting counties. It’s contradictory.”

Yet Mr Odinga stood his ground, saying Kenya’s bloated administrative structure is a burden on taxpayers.

The former Premier has also reignited debate on Kenya’s governance model, calling for a national referendum to review the framework of devolution and abolish remnants of the provincial administration.

He argues that the country’s current two-tier system of national and county governments has shortcomings that must be addressed to strengthen service delivery and accountability.

“I believe the time has come for the country to re-examine the whole issue of devolution. Kenya, in my view, is too tiny. We are just five short of the United States, which is a continent. Nigeria, with over 200 million people, has 36 states while South Africa has nine provinces,” he said.

In another surprising twist, he has also repeatedly argued that Members of County Assemblies (MCAs), not senators, should be the ones overseeing governors.

“The Senate has no business micromanaging counties. The true oversight lies with MCAs who are closer to the people,” he said last month.

This view undermines the constitutional mandate of the Senate, prompting outrage. Senators accused him of attempting to weaken the institution. But he insists the spirit of devolution was to empower the grassroots, not create another national-level bottleneck.

The handshake

Then President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga shake hands at the steps of Harambee House to mark their political truce dubbed ‘the handshake’ on March 9, 2018. Inset: President William Ruto.

Photo credit: Nation Media Group

The ODM leader has also drawn fire for defending his 2018 handshake with then-President Uhuru Kenyatta, a truce that ended years of bitter rivalry but left his opposition base disoriented.

“The handshake was never about sharing power. It was about uniting the country and ensuring stability,” he insists.

Even more contentious is his current embrace of President Ruto, with whom he has been working on a broad-based government.

He has faced accusations of betrayal from a section of opposition leaders and supporters who feel he abandoned his role as the voice of the people.

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and DAP-K boss Eugene Wamalwa, both of whom have been vocal in opposing the broad-based government, accused the ODM leader of betraying opposition unity by siding with the president.

“Raila does not appear to be planning to abandon the broad-based government to join the ‘Wantam’ (one-term) team — this is not going to happen,” said Mr Wamalwa.

He added: “From Raila’s own mouth, we now know he will stand with William Ruto until 2027 and beyond. Kenyans must realise that the campaigns for Ruto began in Homa Bay.”

“Raila always positions himself as a reformer, but then he cosies up to the establishment. That is why people say he flip-flops,” says political analyst Prof Gitile Naituli.

Beyond these, Mr Odinga’s career is peppered with remarks and positions that have confounded allies and foes alike.

He once called for a six-month tax holiday for Kenyans, a promise economists dismissed as impractical.

During the 2022 campaign, he vowed to criminalise tax evasion but later defended big investors accused of dodging taxes.

The bigger question is whether his remarks are the product of deep principle or reckless politics.

His defenders argue that he has always been a step ahead, shaping debates others shy away from.

“Raila speaks uncomfortable truths. People may resist at first, but history vindicates him,” says Nairobi County ODM chairman George Aladwa.

But critics argue that he confuses conviction with stubbornness. “Leadership is not just about being right. It is about building consensus. Raila alienates people by dismissing their concerns.”

Mr Odinga’s political journey — from championing multi-party democracy in the 90s, pushing for constitutional reforms, to nearly clinching the presidency in multiple elections — has always been marked by controversy.

Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group

Born in 1945, the son of Kenya’s first Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, he inherited a political mantle that demanded boldness. His allies say that his nine years in detention under President Moi cemented his image as a fearless fighter.

“Yet in democratic politics, his uncompromising streak has both inspired loyalty and cost him dearly. The Mau Forest, the handshake, and now the CDF battle all demonstrate how his choices resonate differently across constituencies,” argues analyst Dismas Mokua.

As he weighs in on a possible sixth stab at the presidency in 2027, his baffling remarks continue to define him.

“The debate over whether he is bold or reckless will not end soon. Raila Odinga remains a man unafraid to swim against the tide — even if it costs him politically,” advocate Chris Omore says.

In another instance that has stirred debate, Mr Odinga proposed during a recent interview with Nation a radical simplification of the voting process by eliminating the voter’s card altogether and using national IDs as the sole requirement for casting a ballot.

“There’s no reason why you should have a different voter’s card if you have an ID,” he said. “People should vote with their IDs. Just give people IDs, because there are areas where people don’t have them, and that’s why the voter register is skewed.”

In another major proposal, Mr Odinga suggested that Kenya stagger its elections instead of conducting six elections — presidential, gubernatorial, senatorial, MP, Woman Rep, and MCA — on a single day.

“In many countries, you don’t have all elections on the same day,” he noted. “Stagger them so that you don’t have a ballot for people to vote on five different offices. It will be easier and cheaper.”

He said such changes would ease pressure on the electoral commission, reduce costs significantly, and enhance the integrity of the electoral process.