High-stakes power struggles at the top, competing interests and fierce rivalry among aspirants at the grassroots level and a battle for regional dominance by affiliate parties are emerging as major threats to the opposition’s 2027 game plan.
Claims by Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka that he is the camp’s preferred presidential candidate, and the subsequent public protests by some of his co-principals, have exposed the simmering power struggle within the United Opposition.
The political matrix in the opposition became more intricate last Sunday after the Linda Mwananchi faction fronted Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna for the presidential race on a new political outfit to be unveiled.
More presidential aspirants for the opposition means complicated, delicate negotiations and horse trading — which if not managed well — could lead to bitter fallout in the run up to the 2027 General Election.
The opposition camp is also confronted with similar competing interests at other electoral levels, for instance, the governor’s race in strategic counties like Nairobi.
Jubilee Party’s refusal to withdraw its candidate in the Ol Kalou Constituency by-election in favour of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) offers a sneak preview of the impending fight for regional balance by opposition affiliates.
United Opposition leaders, led Rigathi Gachagua (centre), address the media in Nairobi on December 11, 2025.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
If not carefully managed, it could split votes and cost the opposition camp seats in the National Assembly and in the governors’ race.
Elections in Nairobi promise to be problematic. Embakasi East Member of Parliament Babu Owino, who is a member of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) faction Linda Mwananchi, has declared interest in the governor’s seat. Linda Mwananchi also has candidates lined up for various seats in Nairobi. Among the aspirants is former Law Society of Kenya (LSK) president, Faith Odhiambo, who is eyeing the Woman Representative’s seat.
Similarly, DCP has a complete lineup for the same seats in Nairobi. And no party appears ready to sacrifice for a fellow member of the United Opposition.
Nowhere is the battle expected to be more fierce like in Mt Kenya. The DCP wave has gained substantial ground, but the once-dominant Jubilee is fighting to regain its footing.
People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua and Jubilee Party presidential candidate Dr Fred Matiang’i are among the top United Opposition leaders who are opposed to zoning. Both parties are facing a major threat from the DCP.
Leaders who support zoning argue that the move will prevent opposition votes from being split in key battlegrounds, but critics feel it risks alienating aspirants and voters who feel excluded.
Jubilee Presidential hopeful Dr Fred Matiang'i in Borabu, Nyamira County on April 24, 2026.
Photo credit: Ruth Mbula | Nation Media Group
Analysts warn that without a clear framework, the opposition risks fragmentation since several presidential candidate in the race.
Jubilee co-deputy party leader Jeremiah Kioni told Sunday Nation that there are deliberate attempts to arm-twist Dr Matiang’i. He also acknowledged the competing interests among affiliate parties in the United Opposition, adding that forming a coalition could be more complicated this time around.
“Forming a coalition has become a difficult thing. People only join coalitions when they realise they have no chance of forming a government. In 2022, those who agreed to support Raila Odinga (former presidential candidate) did so after realising they had no option,” Mr Kioni said.
He claimed that some principals in the United Opposition were frustrating Dr Matiang’i’s presidential bid.
For his part, Democratic Party leader Justin Muturi has publicly declared support for Mr Musyoka. Mr Muturi said in the event that he is not picked as the coalition’s presidential candidate, the only person he is ready to back is Mr Musyoka. Mr Gachagua is also perceived to favour Mr Musyoka for the top job.
“You could see an attempt to arm-twist Matiang’i. They have mistreated Matiang’i in all the rallies I have attended. The difficulties I have faced in the United Opposition are because of my support for Matiang’i. They don’t want Matiang’i to be supported,” Mr Kioni said.
The former Ndaragwa MP warned against any boardroom deals, insisting that it is only a scientific poll that would stop people from defecting from the opposition in protest.
“Conducting a scientific poll for the suitable opposition flag bearer is the only way to hold the opposition together,” he said.
And Ms Karua said in a statement last week that they have formed a technical committee to come up with frameworks on settling on a presidential candidate. The team is headed by former Cabinet minister Kipruto Kirwa. Ms Karua dismissed any endorsements as personal views, assuring supporters that plans are afoot to build a coalition through consultation, mutual respect and inclusivity.
“While our coalition continues to grow in strength and public confidence, we have not yet concluded the process of establishing the formal structures, governance framework, and rules that will guide our engagement,” she said as the co-convener of the United Opposition.
“Consequently, no decision has been made on the process, criteria, or timeline for selecting the coalition’s presidential flag bearer.”
The former long-serving MP of Gichugu said the committee has made substantial steps, in readiness to present its recommendations to the principals for consideration and approval.
But the resolution by Linda Mwananchi on the presidential race could complicate the coalition’s framework since the committee will need to factor in Mr Sifuna.
Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga, Bumula MP Wamboka Wanami attended a consultative meeting that endorsed Mr Sifuna.
"Our resolution is that Mr Sifuna will contest the presidency in 2027. We shall soon announce the party we will use to seek the presidency," Mr Natembeya said.
"We are going to launch vigorous grassroots campaigns in all 38 constituencies in Western Kenya to mobilise our people to register as voters and support our political agenda," the governor said.
However, Mr Osotsi downplayed the perceived competing interests within the opposition. He said the leaders are ready to make sacrifices in their pursuit to unseat President William Ruto.
“I think there is no cause for alarm because there is sufficient time for the opposition to make a decision on its flag bearer,” said Mr Osotsi, adding that Linda Mwananchi remains focused on the common agenda of defeating Kenya Kwanza in 2027.
Prof David Monda, a US-based university lecturer and political analyst, said competing interests in the opposition are inevitable.
He said Mr Sifuna’s presidential bid splits the opposition into three general power centres —United Opposition of Mr Kalonzo and Mr Gachagua, Jubilee of Dr Matiang’i and Mr Kenyatta and Linda Mwananchi of Mr Sifuna.
“Sifuna's dilemma is joining the United Opposition because it will alienate his base of enthusiastic Gen Z's while forcing him to play second fiddle to Musyoka by accepting the running mate slot — something the Gen Zs don't want,” Prof Monda.
“They want a clean break from the Kanu dinosaurs like Kalonzo and Gachagua. The problem for Sifuna is he's not sure he can win with only the Gen Z support because ethnicity is still the major force for political mobilisation in Kenya,” he explained.
Some of the tight regional contests that the opposition will have to navigate include the race for the Kakamega governor’s seat.
Senator Boni Khalwale, who is allied to the Linda Mwananchi, will fight it out with DCP Deputy Party Leader Cleophas Malala. In the run up to the 2022 General Election, Dr Khalwale withdrew his quest for governor on the UDA ticket and supported Mr Malala. But in 2027, he says this time he is determined to clinch the seat.
“I will not back out for anybody again; let the people decide. Winning a governorship is not a matter of life and death, and it is not a must that I have to be the governor,” Mr Khalwale said in an interview with Sunday Nation.
He dismissed plans to front a single candidate to face off with Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa. Dr Khalwale said that should such a plan exist, then he is the ideal candidate to be supported.
Should Mr Malala be on the ballot, he will be taking on Governor Barasa for a second consecutive time. But he faces an uphill task of popularising the DCP in Kakamega County, where politics has traditionally been dominated by ODM.
In Kisii, the opposition faces another dilemma in handling the competition between Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka and former Education Cabinet Secretary Ezekiel Machogu, who are eyeing the governor’s seat.
Both Mr Machogu and Mr Onyonka are allied to Dr Matiang’i. Mr Onyonka said he is ready to battle it out in the nomination with Mr Machogu and is also open to any pre-election agreement.
United Opposition leaders, led by Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka (center), DAP-K Party leader Eugene Wamalwa (left), former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Trans-Nzoia Governor George Natembeya (right), address the media at SKM command center in Nairobi on November 3, 2025.
Photo credit: Lucy Wanjiru | Nation Media Group
“The people should be given a platform to decide. I’m ready to fight for the slot with Mzee Machogu. Currently, I’m the longest serving politician from Kisii County, but that doesn’t mean I’m not ready to support anybody who is popular. If Mzee Machogu is popular, I will support him,” Mr Onyonka said.
He, however, said that if there is no nomination, then a scientific method should be used to determine the opposition flagbearer for the governorship.
“We are all in the United Opposition and the key issue is ensuring we have a candidate who can beat Simba Arati. With Matiang’i, the most popular presidential candidate in Kisii, I believe the politics of this region will be aligned to him, and that is why we have to agree and front candidates to bag all the seats,” he added.
“I want to fix the broken system in Kisii because nothing is working. The manifesto we agreed on with Simba Arati is not being implemented. Machogu was a CS, and there were issues, but if wananchi believe he is popular, then we can’t judge him based on his time at the ministry. I believe we will have a strong candidate,” he said.
Mr Machogu, 68, vied for governorship on a UDA ticket in the 2022 polls but lost. In an interview with Sunday Nation, Mr Machogu also said he is ready to battle it out in the nomination with Senator Onyonka, but in a free and fair nomination.
“Three candidates are seeking the Jubilee ticket. I’m convinced that a free and fair nomination can settle this,” he said.
