From political fanfare to doubling our wealth

Today, Kenya’s GDP per capita is about $2,100–$2,300 according to the World Bank. Youth unemployment and underemployment remain pervasive, with millions trapped in informal, low-productivity work. Manufacturing contributes barely 7–8 per cent of GDP — far below the 20–25 per cent seen in countries that transformed themselves within a generation. We export raw tea and coffee, then import finished goods at a premium. As Scripture reminds us, “The borrower is servant to the lender.”

Yet doubling income to about $4,000 within five years is achievable. Countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh were at Kenya’s level not long ago. They focused on factories, exports and human capital — and grew at 8–10 per cent consistently. At 10–11 per cent growth, incomes double within a political cycle.

The engine must be manufacturing. Suppose Kenya raises manufacturing’s share of GDP from 8 per cent to 18 per cent in five years. That alone can add 3–4 percentage points to annual growth. If each of the 47 counties establishes a functional Special Economic Zone (SEZ) hosting just 15 factories employing 400 people each, that is 282,000 direct jobs. With supply chains, the impact exceeds 800,000 livelihoods.
Year one would require infrastructure — roads, power, water — at roughly Sh5 billion per county, or Sh235 billion total. By year two, private investors begin setting up. By year three, exports start rising. By year five, manufacturing exports could double from about $7–8 billion to over $15 billion.

Liquidity must follow infrastructure. A Sh100 billion VAT refund fund would end the chronic delays that choke businesses. A Sh100 billion credit guarantee scheme could unlock up to Sh500 billion in industrial lending. That is not theory; it is how export economies finance growth.

The question, inevitably, is cost. Yet Kenya does not lack money; it misallocates it.
Consider current priorities. The Affordable Housing Programme has already mobilised over Sh200 billion through levies, with plans running into trillions over time. Its social benefits are real — jobs in construction and improved housing — but its economic multiplier is narrower than the industry. The same Sh200 billion, redirected into SEZ infrastructure and industrial credit, could catalyse export sectors that generate permanent jobs and foreign exchange.

Similarly, Kenya is investing heavily in stadiums and sports complexes, with individual projects costing between Sh20 billion and Sh50 billion. Three such projects equal roughly Sh90–100 billion — enough to provide free day secondary education for an entire year for all Kenyan students.

Free day secondary education for about 4 million learners would cost roughly Sh70–80 billion annually. Compare that to what we spend on lower-impact capital projects. Education is not consumption; it is production. Each additional year of schooling raises lifetime earnings by about 8–10 per cent globally.

Healthcare tells a similar story. Providing basic medical cover for the poorest 15 million Kenyans would cost about Sh70–80 billion annually. That is less than half of what is being channelled into housing levies over a short period. Rwanda achieved near-universal coverage with far fewer resources by prioritising health as an economic input, not merely a social good.

Even popular funds illustrate the trade-offs. Government-backed credit schemes have disbursed tens of billions of shillings to small borrowers. These programmes expand access to finance, which is commendable. But if even a portion — say Sh50–100 billion — were redirected into structured industrial credit, the same funds could anchor factories employing thousands rather than micro-enterprises struggling to scale.

The real opportunity, however, lies in cutting waste. Kenya’s budget exceeds Sh4 trillion. A modest 10 per cent reduction in non-essential administrative expenditure yields over Sh150 billion annually. Rationalising over 200 parastatals — many redundant or loss-making — can save another Sh50–100 billion.
Even within security and executive spending, procurement efficiencies and discipline can unlock tens of billions without weakening the state. In total, over Sh300 billion annually can be reallocated — enough to fund manufacturing infrastructure, education and healthcare simultaneously.

This is not unprecedented. South Korea in the 1960s cut consumption and channelled resources into industry and education. Malaysia did the same in the 1980s, prioritising exports over prestige projects.

If Kenya implements these reforms, the year-by-year impact becomes clear. Year one: infrastructure spending and policy reforms push growth to 7–8 per cent. Year two: investor inflows and construction of factories raise growth to 9–10 per cent.

Year three: exports surge, unemployment begins to fall sharply, growth hits 10–11 per cent. Years four and five: productivity gains from education and health push growth toward 11–12 per cent.
The greater challenge is political culture. Kenyan discourse is often personality-driven, not policy-driven. We debate who attended which rally rather than how to create jobs. Yet elections should be about choices, not characters.

A nation, like a family, must produce before it consumes. A parent who spends on appearances while neglecting school fees and food imperils the household. Kenya must make the same choice: stadiums or skills, housing levies or factories, consumption or production.
Double Kenya’s wealth in five years is not a miracle. It is a matter of discipline, priorities and courage. The question this election season is simple: will we choose to build an economy—or merely decorate one?

Irungu Kangata is the Governor for Murang’a County,PhD. email [email protected]