Whereas Kenya still grapples with persistent fiscal deficits and burgeoning offshore debts, Singapore enjoys balanced budgets buoyed by a robust strategic fiscal policy.
The economic distance between Kenya and Singapore is vast. Singapore is between 35 and 40 times richer than Kenya in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita terms. Singapore’s GDP per capita is about $ 90,000, while Kenya’s stands at roughly $2,200.
This is not a small gap that can be closed by marginal reforms; it is a structural gulf that demands extraordinary speed and discipline. If Kenya truly intends to become like Singapore, it cannot simply walk faster. It must fundamentally change how it moves.
Imagine you are in Nairobi with your sister. You intend to travel to Murang’a. She intends to travel to Mandera. Both of you must arrive at your destinations within one hour. You can drive. She cannot. She must take a jet. Kenya is your sister in this story. To reach Singapore’s level of prosperity within a generation, Kenya must grow at jet speed, not saloon-car speed.
The numbers make this clear. To close a roughly 41-fold income gap within 30 years, Kenya would need to sustain annual economic growth of about seven to eight per cent for three decades. Kenya’s current growth rate averages about five per cent. That rate is respectable, but it is not transformative. It is good enough to make progress, not to catch up.
Powerful choice
An 8 per cent growth rate sounds ambitious, but history shows it is achievable. China sustained similar growth for over 30 years. Vietnam has done so for decades. Botswana managed it for a long stretch after independence. As the Bible reminds us, “Where there is no vision, the people perish.” But vision alone is insufficient. Joseph did not save Egypt from famine through prayer alone; he planned, stored grain, and managed resources wisely. Kenya’s journey to Singapore begins with business.
Singapore made a simple but powerful choice early on: it would be export-driven. Kenya, by contrast, remains largely import-driven. In 2023, Kenya imported goods worth Sh2.6 trillion while exporting only about Sh1 trillion. That trade deficit is not merely an accounting inconvenience; it is a sign of an economy consuming more than it produces for the world.
To change this, Kenya must diversify beyond traditional exports such as tea and coffee and aggressively expand manufacturing, agro-processing, ICT, and tradable services. The African Continental Free Trade Area offers Kenya access to a vast market, but access alone does not create exports; competitiveness does. As the English proverb goes, you cannot borrow your way to prosperity. Nations grow rich by selling.
Tied to exports is deregulation. The economy is weighed down by excessive regulation, overlapping mandates, and bureaucracy. The result is high compliance costs, limited competition, and a growing informal sector as businesses flee rules they can’t obey. Too many laws, like too many cooks, spoil the broth.
Singapore took the opposite approach. It simplified rules, digitised government services, reduced red tape, and made it easy to start and run a business. The Apostle Paul warned that “the letter kills, but the spirit gives life.” Overregulation kills enterprise; smart regulation gives life to markets. Deregulation would attract investment, boost competition and innovation, and expand the tax base as firms move into the formal economy.
Industrial parks where export companies have tax incentives would be a perfect strategy. A flexible labour market would help create jobs. Privatisation of public companies is an important strategy. Infrastructure is the second pillar. No country has ever developed without reliable roads, ports, power, and connectivity. Singapore invested in efficient ports, dependable electricity, and fast internet. Kenya must do the same, but with an emphasis not just on building, but on managing and maintaining infrastructure. A congested port or an unreliable power grid is not a neutral inconvenience; it is a hidden tax on every business and consumer.
The third pillar is human capital. Singapore understood that people are the ultimate multiplier. Kenya must invest decisively in education and healthcare.
In education, the quickest and most affordable gains lie in day secondary schools, which predominantly serve children from poor households. In 2023, Kenya had about 4.1 million secondary school students. Roughly 70 per cent, or 2.9 million, attend day schools. With annual fees of about Sh11,000, households collectively pay roughly Sh31.9 billion out of pocket each year. Making day secondary education completely free would therefore cost about Sh31.9 billion.
Sick population
For perspective, the Kenya Prison Service, serving about 40,000 inmates, receives about Sh38.1 billion annually. If the state can afford prisoners, it can afford students. As Jesus observed, where your treasure is, there your heart will be also. Budgets reveal priorities more clearly than speeches. Healthcare is equally vital.
Kenya’s poverty rate is about 36 per cent. A national medical insurance scheme should initially target at least 18 per cent of households, roughly half of the poor, and expand gradually as national income rises. No nation has ever grown rich on the labour of a sick population.
Finally, Kenya must confront poor governance acts. Merit-based recruitment in the public service is essential, including a shift from subjective oral interviews to exam-based selection. Automation of government services must be accelerated to reduce human discretion and corruption. Singapore understood early that strong systems matter more than strong individuals.
The Romans captured this truth 2,000 years ago when they observed that a state is only as strong as its institutions. Kenya can become Singapore, but only if it accepts a hard truth: flying speed requires discipline, sacrifice, and clarity of purpose.
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Dr Kangata is the governor of Murang’a County
