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Kenyan politics and the madman theory

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A political rally.  

Photo credit: John Njoroge | Nation Media Group

Being mad socially means being unconventional, unpredictable and behaving against established social norms.

The Bible records that Jesus met a person with madness at a place called The Gerasenes. Madness was viewed as having demons. He addressed the demons and inquired about their names. He then cast them out into a herd of pigs.

Well, in real life, appearing as a mad person, at times, can be beneficial. Think of a hungry, poor, but soft person who enters a hotel and eats food. Upon finishing, he has no money to settle the bill. He requests a waiver. Most likely, the owner will cause him to peel potatoes. But a madman who eats for free but starts to bang tables and shout at the top of his voice often attracts sympathy and automatic waivers from payment so as to reduce "commotion".

That is how someone known as James, from Rift Valley, got himself a big chunk of land from a multinational. He lodged what looked like a frivolous claim of historical injustice against a multinational company that owns land. But he adopted a clever strategy to push his case. He would literally kick all doors of all relevant offices and shout himself hoarse.

Judicial endorsement

James would act melodramatically in court by throwing himself on the ground. This continued until he got some concession that had judicial endorsement from what appeared to be a ludicrous claim.

The premise of the theory is that the appearance of irrationality makes otherwise non-credible threats appear credible.

In politics, the mad man theory has very practical use. It was popularised by American President Richard Nixon in the 1970s. Nixon was confronting communist states that were attempting to expand their spheres of influence. America was vying to contain those expansionist dreams.

Vietnam and South Korea have had a similar history. Both countries have people who share similar language and customs. But in the 1950s, at the beginning of the Cold War, both were partitioned in two almost equal halves by the big powers of the United States of America and the Soviet Union.


The northern parts went communist, with the southern leaning West going capitalistic. The northern regions then made an attempt to unite forcefully with the southern parts.

In South Korea, America intervened successfully and created the Military Demarcation Line along 38th parallel.

In Vietnam, the American intervention failed. The American invasion took years with several US presidents trying all methods to win the war against the northern Vietnamese guerrillas led by Ho Chi Minh.

Madman theory

Then Nixon came to power. He decided to carpet bomb the entire Northern Vietnam. "I will call it madman theory. I want northern Vietnamese to believe that I have reached a point where I might do anything (including dropping a nuclear bomb) to stop the war”.

Nixon argues this is what caused Ho to negotiate peace in Paris. But of course, that was a ruse - Ho forces stormed the South soon thereafter.

Donald Trump uses this strategy very brilliantly. He insults nations and erects trade barriers without distinguishing friends and foes. But then he negotiates a very good settlement deal on his own terms.

Muammar Gaddafi was once referred to as a mad dog by US President Ronald Reagan, who made an unsuccessful assassination attempt. Gaddafi flirted with Pan-Arab nationalism, Islamism and finally as a Pan-African.

When he took over power in 1969, he found oil companies with lopsided agreements that did not favour the people. He threatened to nationalise oilfields. The multinationals rushed to grant majority shares to the state. Other Middle Eastern states followed suit. Soon after, Gaddafi’s Libya became the most advanced society in Africa.

In Kenya, those who do unconventional politics that appear like madness succeed. A popular Western Kenya MP, who I believe is assured of re-election, has a very clever strategy of appearing like a madman.

Uhuru Kenyatta also used to refer to Raila Odinga as muguruki (mad man). But it is that muguruki who helped him steer his ship in his last leg of his presidency, after the March 2018 Handshake, culminating in an endorsement of Raila in the 2022 election.

The veteran politician is now the power behind the throne in the current government.

So, maybe if you want to go far in politics, appearing like a madman might be one helpful way.

Dr Kangata is the Governor of Murang’a County; Email [email protected]