With more than two years to the next General Election, Kenya’s political landscape is already shifting in earnest, with key players engaging in intense negotiations and strategic manoeuvres to secure alliances.
Behind closed doors, power brokers are shopping for parties and coalitions that could determine Kenya’s future leadership. From secret meetings to public endorsements, the chessboard is set and moves to secure a place at the high table are underway.
The stakes seem to be as high as the ambitions of those involved, amid fears that the early campaigns will likely affect economic growth and execution of President Ruto’s Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda.
Political analyst Peter Kagwanja says Kenya has been on a perpetual campaign mode, and is likely to be so for years to come.
“The war drums for 2027 have been sounding since 2023, and the battle lines are beginning to emerge. Three camps are now discernible: the obvious one led by the incumbent, President William Ruto; the other by former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka in Azimio; and a rebel United Democratic Alliance (UDA) group mainly from Mt Kenya region led by impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua,” the chief executive officer of Africa Policy Institute told the Nation on Sunday.
He said Kenya is witnessing a great deal of political window shopping, hawking of potential coalitions and expressions of interests.
“This is the context in which ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna attended a church service with Kalonzo, Karua hosted Gachagua and Fred Matiang’i’s name is featuring in the 2027 calculations,” added Prof Kagwanja.
Dr Ruto appears to be leading from the front, with his party last week reaching an agreement with Amani National Congress (ANC), founded by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi , for a working arrangement towards 2027 poll. ANC formally dissolved to form the UDA Party.
ANC is required to convene a national delegates convention within 21 days to ratify the decision, a move that government insiders said is aimed at strengthening the President’s party, especially in the Western region.
President Ruto is also betting on Mr Odinga’s support, especially if the latter secures the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) in next month’s election.
Already, some members of Mr Odinga’s fractured Orange party have thrown their weight behind Dr Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid, even as others openly continue to oppose and criticise his policies and vowing to deny him a second term.
Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda recently hinted at the possibility of Dr Ruto fielding a running mate from ODM as part of a coalition agreement for the 2027 elections.
“ODM will support President Ruto for a second term. On February 28, 2025, he (Mr Odinga) will become the AUC chairperson. He will go to Addis Ababa, I will remain here with the secretary-general (Edwin Sifuna). ODM will be a major player,” Prof Ojienda said in a TV interview on January 9.
On Sunday, Mr Sifuna, who has openly opposed any working arrangement with President Ruto’s UDA, accompanied Mr Musyoka to a church function in Nairobi—a move that was interpreted as attempts to align with the former VP’s camp.
Mr Sifuna, however, explained that his presence was at Mr Musyoka’s request.
“He asked me on Saturday to accompany him to church, and I obliged,” said Mr Sifuna.
The ODM secretary-general further emphasised that his support for Mr Musyoka stemmed from their shared membership in the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition, to which both the ODM and Wiper parties belong.
Even though there are signs that Mr Odinga could side with President Ruto in a coalition akin to their working arrangement in 2007 under the Pentagon, Mr Odinga’s party seems divided, with party officials either backing Dr Ruto or distancing themselves from his camp.
The inclusion of former ODM party bigwigs into the broad-based Cabinet announced by President Ruto in July last year has largely been interpreted as a part of a plan to back the President’s re-election.
Those who were incorporated into the Cabinet are former ODM deputy party leaders Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, former National Chairman John Mbadi and former Secretary for Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi as well as former member of the party’s elections board Beatrice Askul.
“You don’t expect me to be an opposition within the Kenya Kwanza government. I am, however, encouraging those who have made it their role to oppose to continue doing the same, but don’t expect me to join you,” said Mr Wandayi.
In Mt Kenya region, Mr Gachagua and Ms Karua, who is rebranding her Narc-Kenya party to Peoples’ Liberation Party (PLP) hinted at forming a strong alliance aimed at “liberating” the country.
The duo held a meeting at Ms Karua’s home in Kirinyaga on Saturday where they vowed to stand with Kenyans against what they termed the oppressive Ruto regime.
“My elder sister, we shall benefit a lot from her counsel. We’ll consult her regularly alongside other Kenyans of goodwill so that we liberate this country. So today, I’ll leave here a very happy man. That now, we have a leader that we can work together with,” Mr Gachagua said.
Ms Karua echoed his sentiments, telling Dr Ruto to brace himself for a tough political battle in the next elections.
“We shall rally Kenyans to liberate the country economically, socially and politically and defeat Dr Ruto hands down,” she said.
Ms Karua urged Mr Gachagua to continue talking to Kenyans everywhere and pursue his ambitions without fear.
“I’m pursuing my ambition for presidency and my brother Gachagua should do the same. When the time is near, we shall come up with one presidential candidate to battle it out with Ruto,” said Ms Karua.
Dr Matiang'i’s 2027 presidential ambitions have also continued to gain traction, with allies of Mr Kenyatta saying the former president plans to back him to dethrone President Ruto.
A leading figure in Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party recently told the Nation that “as things stand, Matiang’i is the Jubilee Party candidate for presidency in 2027”.
The source said Mr Kenyatta was also reaching out to Mr Odinga to join Dr Matiang’i’s camp before 2027.
“It is coordinated. Uhuru is trying to put together the opposition to support Matiang’i. He is the one behind all these plans,” the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity citing the sensitivity of plans, added.
When asked whether Mr Kenyatta had settled on Dr Matiang’i for 2027, Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni said: “I don’t want to delve into the matter but we have a full team we are consulting, including Matiang’i.”
“We are working with Matiang’i, Kalonzo, (Eugene) Wamalwa, (George) Natembeya, (Okiya) Omtatah... basically with all those leaders who think that change is necessary,” Mr Kioni told the Nation.
Prof Kagwanja holds that Mr Odinga remains the real “show-stopper” in pre-election coalition-building for 2027.
“Effective coalition building will come in February, in the aftermath of the hiring of the chairman of the African Union Commission. As a victor or the vanquished, Raila Odinga, a powerful kingmaker or contender for the Kenyan crown in his own right, will sway political odds in the run-up to 2027,” Prof Kagwanja said.
“Unbeknown to many, what suffers is our development, which requires long-term policy consensus and political stability.”
He explains that Kenya has been rising, but is now regressing due to the current political climate.
On Saturday, Tharaka-Nithi Governor Muthomi Njuki said: “For now let us try and focus on delivering for the people as leaders. Let us demand from our government what they promised us during elections. The time to form parties for political purposes will come”
