Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga speaks to the media in Nairobi on February 15, 2024 when he formally declared his interest in the African Union Commission chairmanship.
Azimio leader Raila Odinga's bid for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) has sparked an intense battle among his lieutenants to take over his mantle as the doyen of Luo Nyanza politics.
The tug-of-war has even roped in members of his family, who appear divided on who should succeed him as the Luo Nyanza political supremo.
On Friday last week, Mr Odinga's wife, Ida, who was speaking in Homa Bay County, rooted for Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) National Chairman John Mbadi as the best-placed to succeed her husband.
On the other hand, Dr Oburu Oginga, Mr Odinga's elder brother and the family spokesman, had backed National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi as the best choice for the Luo kingpin.
“Raila has said he has capable sons and daughters here who will fill his shoes in his absence. Mbadi, for all these years that Baba [Mr Odinga]has taken to train you, do you still need more training? Aren’t you capable? Can I leave it at that? That’s where Baba’s heart is,” Ms Odinga said in Nyandiwa in Suba South, Mr Mbadi’s home constituency.
Dr Oginga, who is also the Siaya senator, had last year fuelled speculations with a statement that hinted at the former Prime Minister's possible exit from the political scene.
“Leaders grow like mushrooms. That’s how Opiyo [Mr Wandayi] is growing and nothing will stop him from being the top leader. These are the people who will now lead us and give us direction,” Dr Oginga said at a public rally in Ugunja, Siaya County, in September last year.
But in a recent interview with the Nation, the ODM leader maintained that the Luo leadership is not elective, adding that he will continue to support the community even if he secures the AUC job. He described his bid as a sabbatical “to focus on serving the continent”.
“But nothing stops me from returning to the local scene should the situation warrant it,” he said.
The race to succeed Mr Odinga could spark a rivalry pitting South Nyanza, comprising Homa Bay and Migori counties, against Central Nyanza (Kisumu and Siaya). Mr Mbadi hails from South Nyanza while Mr Wandayi is from Central.
It is also likely to pit youthful politicians against their older and more seasoned mentors.
Azimio la Umoja One Kenya leader Raila Odinga (left) and National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi during a past event.
Other possible successors include Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Mr Odinga's daughter Winnie, former cabinet secretary Raphael Tuju and governors Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay), Ochilo Ayacko (Migori), James Orengo (Siaya) and Anyang' Nyong'o (Kisumu).
The list also includes politicians allied to President William Ruto, such as former Nairobi governor Evans Kidero, Information, Communication and the Digital Economy Cabinet Secretary Eliud Owalo and Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo.
There are fears reportedly among some of Mr Odinga's loyalists that his exit from local politics could spell doom for them.
“Their fear is that Raila will not be able to endorse them and they could face the wrath of the electorate in 2027,” Dr Kidero claimed. For the Odinga ‘rebels’, the concern is that Mr Odinga's quest, backed by President William Ruto, could dilute their influence in the government.
Some of the ‘rebel’ MPs from Luo Nyanza who support the Kenya Kwanza government are Gideon Ochanda (Bondo), Elisha Odhiambo (Gem), Mark Nyamita (Uriri), Paul Abuor (Rongo), Caroli Omondi (Suba South), Phelix Odiwuor alias Jalang'o (Lang'ata) and Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda.
Speaking about politicians who were “hanging onto Mr Odinga’s coattails” to secure their positions, Dr Kidero said: “Those who are crying foul over Raila’s possible exit from local politics should not think only of themselves. Some of them think if Raila isn’t around to [prop them up], that’s the end of their careers. But Kenya needs to donate Raila to Africa for a bigger role.”
Political analyst Mark Bichachi said some of the politicians in Mr Odinga’s fold who are disgruntled about his quest for the AUC job “feel that the ease with which they have sailed through politics courtesy of Mr Raila may be coming to an end”.
Mr Mbadi said ODM’s central committee will soon be convened when Mr Odinga returns from Germany to deliberate on the party's future.
“We will make a pronouncement on the future of ODM ... there is no cause for alarm,” Mr Mbadi said.
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo and his Homa Bay counterpart Gladys Wanga maintain that Mr Odinga would easily serve as AUC chairman and still lead ODM.
“It doesn’t change anything. Raila has held continental positions before, including at the AU. We have not seen any difference in his politics or the politics of the opposition,” Mr Sifuna said.
Mr Orengo noted that Mr Odinga's rights cannot be curtailed because he holds a continental position.
“Raila ... has a right to participate in the political affairs of Kenya,” Mr Orengo said.
Ms Wanga expressed her confidence that Mr Odinga would not lose his political clout even if he took the AU job and there would be no leadership vacuum in ODM.
Also read: Raila Odinga: These leaders will succeed me
“There are those who are imagining that this is a way of pushing him out of politics. They don't know that Raila is a force to reckon with. He is an institution and does not need to hold a formal position in a party to command political support,” Ms Wanga noted.
Prof Macharia Munene of the United States International University said Mr Odinga's announcement to seek the AUC post will not have much impact on local politics.
“His influence will continue as it was when he was the High Representative for Infrastructure in Africa. Whether he gets the job or not, he will continue to be a candidate in 2027 and beyond. (President) Ruto would like to see him out of local politics, but it will not necessarily work,” said Prof Munene.
Unlike in Ukambani, where Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has a big say in politics, or in Coast or Western, where ODM deputy party leaders Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya respectively have a head start, in Nyanza, Mr Odinga is not only the leader of the opposition coalition but also the undisputed supremo of the region. Were he to step down from politics, the succession process in Luo Nyanza is likely to generate a lot of political heat.
