President William Ruto (left) confers with ODM party leader Oburu Oginga during the Piny Luo Festival in Senye Beach in Nyatike, Migori County on December 17, 2025.
After entering government through the back door during the 2024 Gen Z upheaval, ODM now says it wants a formal pre-election plan.
ODM leader Dr Oburu Oginga said that a team will be formed to negotiate with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
The Siaya senator said that they will begin structured coalition talks with UDA, marking the clearest signal yet that the broad-based government arrangement is evolving into a potential electoral pact for the 2027 election.
Dr Oginga said that ODM will give President Ruto first priority in the negotiations and will only consider other political players if the talks with UDA stall.
He spoke on Friday during the burial of Mama Rose Ating’a in Alego Usonga Constituency, Siaya County.
“We will soon establish a negotiating team to begin talks with UDA because it is very difficult for a party to go it alone without seeking the support of others. Therefore, we must negotiate with others. We will start with our partners in the broad-based arrangement,” he said.
“This year, 2026, is the year of negotiations. Either we are going into a partnership with UDA or any other partners, or we are going alone as ODM. We are not going to wait for 2027 to decide,” Dr Oginga added.
Political weight
The ODM leader was accompanied by Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi, Nyakach MP Aduma Owuor, Nyando MP Jared Okello, Siaya County Assembly Speaker George Okode and several local leaders.
“We got into this government by accident,” he said. “The government was shaken by Gen Zs, and we entered through the back door, through the window.”
Dr Oginga said that the phase is over, and ODM now wants a formal, negotiated arrangement that reflects its political weight and historical grievances.
President William Ruto and ODM party leader Oburu Oginga at Raila Odinga Stadium in Homa Bay Town during a sports tournament dubbed Genowa Governor’s Cup on December 28, 2025.
“As we approach 2027, we are not going to get into government through the back door. I will head the ODM negotiations,” Dr Oginga said, warning supporters to expect hard bargaining.
“It is not going to be an easy negotiation. It will be tough. We want to get what we feel is our fair share,” he said.
“This share depends on you — our supporters. If the party is strong, we will negotiate from a position of strength.”
Dr Oginga also dismissed critics who hold the view that he lacks the capacity or legitimacy to manage the broad-based arrangement without Raila Odinga’s personal authority.
Dr Oginga succeeded his younger brother and former ODM leader, Raila, who died while receiving treatment in India on October 15, 2025.
The Siaya senator said that he had chaired all key meetings between ODM and President Ruto since the cooperation began.
“I want to assure those saying that only Raila could handle this arrangement, and that Oburu knows nothing about it. I have chaired all the meetings of the broad-based arrangement with Ruto,” he said.
Presidential candidate
Senior ODM figures were appointed to the Cabinet in the broad-based arrangement. They are: Energy Cabinet Secretary Mr Wandayi, National Treasury CS John Mbadi, Mining CS Hassan Joho, Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya and Beatrice Askul of the East African Community. Dr Oginga said that the appointments were not incidental.
During ODM’s 20th anniversary celebrations in Mombasa last year, President Ruto acknowledged Dr Oginga. He said that the ODM leader had given him a list of nominees to be considered for State appointments.
“Currently, we have 14 principal secretaries in this government, and we also have directors. We are only demanding our rightful share — not anyone else’s,” Dr Oginga said on Friday.
Analysts believe that it is politically significant for ODM to prioritise UDA in coalition talks for the 2027 elections.
“By prioritising UDA, ODM is signalling that a pre-election coalition with President Ruto is not only possible, but preferred,” political analyst Mr Dismas Mokua said.
At the same time, the ODM leader said, “If we are to go it alone, Oburu Oginga will be the presidential candidate.”
The ODM constitution allows the party leader to become the automatic flag bearer during a presidential election.
For his part, CS Wandayi said fence-sitting carries the risk of paralysing the party. He said the ODM’s leadership question was settled by the National Governing Council acting on behalf of the National Delegates Conference. He dismissed claims of a vacuum as “daydreaming.”
“The mandate to negotiate on behalf of ODM is vested in Dr Oburu Oginga and is not shared with anybody under the earth,” he said, urging him to invoke Article 16 of the party constitution and begin formal talks with President Ruto.
Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi sharpened the warning to ODM leaders opposing the broad-based path, saying respect for the party leader was the minimum condition for dialogue.
President William Ruto shares a light moment with Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga when he visited Siaya County on January 14, 2023.
“If you don’t respect our party leader, there is no negotiation with ODM,” Mr Atandi said.
He acknowledged that some ODM leaders oppose cooperation with President Ruto but said party democracy would ultimately prevail.
“We are not going to ask anyone to resign,” he said. “But when party organs make decisions — such as ratifying engagements with President Ruto — you will have no option. You will leave on your own.”
Yet resistance remains potent. Raila’s daughter, Winnie Odinga, had openly questioned whether the current leadership has the authority and political capital to manage the broad-based arrangement without her father.
“The broad-based relationship is complicated,” she said during ODM party’s 20th anniversary in Mombasa last year. “Those managing it now — are they capable? There is only one Baba Raila Odinga who could manage it.”
Her remarks, calling for an NDC to determine ODM’s future, triggered sharp rebuttals from the pro-broad-based camp and exposed the emotional undercurrents shaping the debate.
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino has taken the challenge further, calling for leadership change and positioning himself as the face of a post-Raila ODM.
“We want ODM to call for NDC. It’s time to take over the party leadership,” he said.
At ODM’s anniversary celebrations in Mombasa last year, Mr Owino accused the party of sidelining him and renewed calls for mass action over the cost of living — rhetoric that contrasts sharply with the tone of the Oburu-led faction.
For ODM, 2026 is shaping up as a make-or-break year. The choice before it is stark —formalise a coalition with President Ruto’s UDA, gamble on going it alone under Oburu Oginga, or fracture under the weight of unresolved succession battles.
Dr Oginga insists the path ahead is pragmatic, not ideological.
“No party is formed to be in opposition forever,” he has said repeatedly. “We want to capture power — jointly or alone.”
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