National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula is a man under political siege, with his political future hanging in the balance following developments both in his Bungoma backyard and at the national level.
For the first time, the Speaker finds himself in a situation where prevailing political dynamics may force him not to vie for a political post in 2027, after having served as an elected leader since 1997.
With the 2027 elections just 16 months away, Mr Wetang’ula faces a political dilemma as unfolding events in Bungoma continue to unsettle him. He has long been the face of the county’s politics, but shifting alliances now appear to be sidelining his Ford Kenya party.
National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula at St Francis of Assisi, Chwele Sub-Parish Catholic Church on October 15 2023.
Photo credit: Courtesy
For the first time, Ford Kenya seems to lack a formidable candidate in the gubernatorial race. Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa of UDA and Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi, who has ruled out vying on a Ford Kenya ticket, are emerging as the main contenders for the 2027 governorship in Bungoma. Former Governor Wycliffe Wangamati who is aligned with the opposition party DAP-Kenya, is also in the race.
Ford Kenya appears to be losing ground in the gubernatorial contest, with Mr Wanyonyi enlisting Sirisia MP John Waluke, who was elected on a Jubilee ticket, as a key ally.
Mr Wetang’ula now has the difficult task of maintaining his grip on a region that has traditionally been his political stronghold.
Meanwhile, the rivalry between Mr Waluke and Mr Barasa have turned personal, with both leaders exchanging attacks that have extended to their families during campaign rallies.
Mr Barasa has already declared his intention to run for governor in 2027 on a UDA ticket. Current Governor Ken Lusaka has completed two terms, having served from 2013 to 2017 and again from 2022 to 2027.
According to Mr Waluke, the county’s leadership should be rotational. He argues that since Lusaka, from Kimilili, has served two terms and Mr Wangamati one, it is now time for the seat to shift to Sirisia, where Kabuchai Constituency, Mr. Wanyonyi’s political base, was carved out in 2013.
“The leadership of the county should be rotational. We have agreed that the seat should not remain in Kimilili, which has had a governor for 10 years,” said Mr Waluke during a recent event in Mt Elgon attended by Forest Cabinet Secretary Deborah Mulongo Barasa.
Sirisia MP John Waluke.
Photo credit: File
If Mr Wanyonyi maintains his stance of not running on a Ford Kenya ticket and Mr Barasa sticks with UDA, any Ford Kenya candidate fielded would likely be playing catch-up.
“We are not short of candidates, and it does not mean we will not field one. Bungoma is the bedrock of our politics, and we know how to play our game well,” said Ford Kenya Secretary General Chris Mandu-Mandu told Nation.
Political analyst Professor Lumala Masibo describes Mr Wetang’ula’s position as increasingly precarious.
“Clearly, Ford Kenya’s support appears to have waned in Bungoma since even in the governorship race, they do not appear to have a formidable candidate. Many MPs have aligned themselves with Barasa, Wangamati, or Wanyonyi, leaving Ford Kenya isolated,” he said.
Since 2013, the governorship has been held by Ken Lusaka and Wycliffe Wangamati, the latter having served under Ford Kenya from 2017 to 2022.
“Even if Ford Kenya eventually fields a candidate, Wetang’ula may be forced to campaign against UDA, the President’s party, something that has not happened in previous elections,” added Prof. Masibo.
Beyond the governorship race, Mr Wetang’ula faces uncertainty about his own political future in 2027. It is unlikely he will return to contest the Bungoma Senate seat, having backed his former personal assistant, Wafula Wakoli, to take up the position after he became Speaker following the 2022 General Election.
“Such a move would appear like a demotion and could be seen as disinheriting his political heir. At 69 now, he would be 74 by 2032 and should go for national seats not regional ones,” Prof Masibo noted.
At the national level, ODM’s entry into government has also reduced Mr Wetang’ula’s influence and bargaining power, as political rewards are likely to be allocated based on each faction’s contribution to electoral success after 2027.
Back in his home region, the rise of ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, who hails from Kanduyi, and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has further eroded his influence.
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna addresses delegates during the People’s Delegate Convention organised by the Linda Mwananchi faction of the ODM at Ufungamano House in Nairobi on March 27, 2026.
Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group
“Unlike Sifuna, who can attract crowds from across the country, Wetang’ula struggles to command support beyond Bungoma or even Trans Nzoia. If he opts not to vie for any seat, he risks losing even more of his already diminished influence,” said Prof Masibo.
Ford Kenya’s recent decision not to dissolve and join UDA could further complicate matters for Mr. Wetang’ula. Prof. Masibo argues that it might have been politically advantageous for him to support the President’s re-election from within UDA rather than from Ford Kenya.
“Musalia Mudavadi will be more visible in UDA compared to Wetangúla in Ford Kenya which has lost its allure and is past its glory of days of yore,
Mr Lusaka's appointment as President Ruto’s 2027 campaign coordinator in the entire Western Kenya region in January and leaving Mr Wetangúla is also believed not to have gone well with his Ford Kenya Party.
