On September 16, I was guest speaker at the Kiambu County Clergy Forum. My host, Rev Dr. McMillan Kiiru, requested that I take a deep dive into the uncertain and turbulent Kenyan politics in the run up to the next elections.
The road to 2027 is a dangerous minefield, marred by the divisive ‘wantam’ versus ‘two-term’ rhetoric. The concept of victory is the kernel of this vexed discourse.
Victory, says the Chinese military strategist, Sun Tzu in the Art of War, is for those with deep knowledge of themselves, their enemy and their terrain. Victory is never a wish, but a fruit of comprehensive planning, hard work, and strategic thinking.
The men and women of the cloth attending the forum were struck mute when I said: “Never mind the ‘Wantam’ rhetoric we are chanting on rooftops of our Prados. As matters stand now, President William Ruto can win and retain power during the 2027 Presidential election! Why? Let’s revisit the three truths about power.
One, the organised dominate; the disorganised are dominated. Two, the economically strong get power; the economically weak lose it. Three, the organised and economically strong are at the table; the disorganised and economically weak are on the menu. In the run up to 2027, Mount Kenya is not at the table, it is on the menu! We must take this immutable truth to heart, tone down the rhetoric, and get down to work. That is the only pathway to make Ruto a one term president—and the first to face this ignominy.
As of today, Ruto can be re-elected. He does not only have the power and privileges of an incumbent. His ethnic powerbase—organised around the EMO Community Development Society—have since 1986 developed the most superior strategy, organisation and war chest to ensure the Kalenjin nation remain at the table, never on the menu.
This is not waxing lyrical about Ruto’s superior politics. It is a humble recognition that after the calamitous 2022 elections, he shafted his Mt Kenya supporters onto the menu. Bitter and spellbound by Prof Mutahi Ngunyi’s “Tyranny of Numbers” thesis, they have no place for the tyranny of thought and organisation.
Sit back and do the maths. Victory is: 3K+2L— course 101 in Kenya’s political strategy. Simply put, Kenyan political mobilisation is a tale of Five Big tribes—Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Kamba, Luhya and Luo.
Collectively, they make up over 70 per cent of the national voting power. But achieving absolute victory has remained a bridge too far. Of the five presidents, only Mwai Kibaki came close to getting the 3Ks and 2Ls in one bag, in 2002. He won with the largest margin ever of 62.3 per cent. The best result is the 2010 Constitution Referendum where the “Yes” Campaign led by Kibaki and Raila Odinga won 68.55 per cent of the vote.
Parochial interests of ethnic blocs, not consensus around national interests dominate our politics. Ahead of 2027, the Big Five are wooing the Five Super Minorities— Kisii, Meru, Miji Kenda, Somali, Maasai, and Turkana in frenzied efforts to cobble winning coalitions. These result in perilous razor-thin victories, which are often hard to defend peacefully.
Ruto is not a newcomer in unscrambling and changing the power game. In 2022, he shifted the axis of politics from ethnicity to class, popularising the hustler-versus-dynasties mantra. He won. But as they say, the king-maker is always the first to be beheaded after the king is crowned! Cold and calculating, Ruto edged the Kikuyu out from the table, pushing them on the menu.
He must have read Sun Tzu: “Keep your friends close; keep your enemies closer.” He ushered in his 2022 nemesis, Raila Odinga and his ODM juggernaut, to the table as the new fulcrum of his power.
Since last year, Ruto has upped the ante, bolstering his Kalenjin ethnic power base while shifting the axis of political contest from the 42 ethnic blocs to a new politics of mega-linguistic blocs: the Bantu, Cushite and Nilotes.
Out with the old hustler class politics, in with the new Nilotic consciousness hoisted on the Jii Speakers (Kalenjin, Luo, Maasai, Samburu, Iteso and Turkana), about 19 million or 33.3 per cent of Kenya’s 57 million people in 2025. He is effectively wielding the Nilotic with the Cushitic bloc (Somali and Oromo/Borana), totalling 7 million people or 12.3 per cent of the population.
The result is a Nilotic-Cushitic axis totalling about 26 million or 45.6 per cent of Kenya’s population. The new axis of power is stabilising his rule in the 2024-2027 hiatus. The big question is whether it will hold together and help him retain power after 2027. Raila is the ultimate king-maker. Ruto stands no chance if he bolts. But he is putting his heart and soul into making a Nilotic future attractive beyond 2027.
Clearly, the Nilotic-Cushitic axis does not have the numbers to secure Ruto victory in 2027. So, what is his game plan to tilt the balance of power in 2027? The plan is to make serious inroads into the Bantu bloc, codenamed “the Cousins.” As Kenya’s third linguistic formation, the Bantu (Kikuyu, Embu, Meru, Kamba, Luhya, Kisii, Miji Kenda and Taita/Taveta) has the numbers: 31 million or 54.4 per cent of Kenya’s people. A well-calibrated divide-and-rule strategy, working with like-minded parties and third force formations (such as the Kenya Moja Alliance),will deliver votes at the Coast, Western Kenya and even Mt Kenya.
In the aftermath of 2022 elections, the church has a serious credibility deficit, but it still has a powerful voice.
With the Muslim commanding 11.2 per cent and Christians 83 per cent (Protestant 47.7 per cent, Catholic 23.4 per cent, other Christian 11.9 per cent) of Kenya’s population, the faith sector is larger than any linguistic bloc.
Besides predation on the Bantu vote, the Ruto campaign will tap into the veins of the immense capacity of the faith-based sector to sway the vote.
But the Gen Z are the black swan in this political game. They have the numbers—19 million or 33.42 per cent of Kenyan people. They have the rhetoric: leaderless, partyless, tribeless and regionless. And they are strong in protest politics. But have no economic muscle and political organisation. Winning power in a straight political contest is a pipe-dream. The ‘one-term’ movement has heavy lifting to do. They have to organise or agonise as Ruto wins the 2027 polls.
Peter Kagwanja is a former Government Advisor, Chief Executive at the Africa Policy Institute and Deputy Party Leader (Strategy and Policy), People’s Liberation Party (PLP).
