President William Ruto plays pool during a Nairobi County Empowerment Programme at State House, Nairobi, last week.
Last week, President Ruto announced that boda bodas would now retail at Sh95,000, about half the usual price.
It sounded like a breakthrough for riders, until you looked closer.
The offer applies only to a limited stock of electric motorcycles from a single supplier, Spiro, with a Sh9,500 deposit and Sh180 daily over two years. For most riders, nothing changes.
This is an example of a negative-sum game. In game theory, a negative-sum game is one where, after all the moves are played, the total value in the system shrinks.
Some individuals might benefit briefly, but the country ends up worse off.
Ruto’s empowerment ‘theatrics’, from the boda boda announcement to the State House distribution of bodas, PA systems, and car-wash machines, deliver short-lived optics while diverting resources, trust, and attention away from the structural investments that could actually grow Kenya’s economy.
Announcements like these are not random; they fit a familiar pattern seen in many countries whenever populist leaders take to the stage.
Political scientists define populists using three criteria: they divide their population between a righteous “people” and an elite or undeserving minority; they claim to be the sole or best representative of “the people”; and they insist that democracy means serving the will of “the people” without accepting constraints from independent institutions, oversight, or inalienable rights.
These leaders tend to evade normal policy channels, preferring to take key decisions based on personal instinct.
More often, it concentrates power in one person, bypasses safeguards, and produces poor policies meant for maximum political impact rather than long-term results.
The concentration of power in a single leader and their personal network inevitably leads to increased corruption. Regular businesses suffer as their markets get squeezed by the well-connected few.
A small business elite benefits from this cronyism, but only to the extent that they can remain in favour.
Populist leaders do not want potential rivals, and when a businessperson gets too independently powerful, these leaders tend to force them out of their business positions or even from the country entirely.
This change to the nature of governing, more than individual policies, is what makes populism so dangerous to business over the long term.
Populists undermine the operating environment capitalism depends on, most notably free competition and a predictable rule of law.
Seen through this lens, the State House spectacles of boda bodas, PA systems, and catering kits make perfect sense. They are designed to reinforce the image of the leader as the direct benefactor of “the people,” bypassing bureaucrats, councils, and systems.
Two days after the boda boda announcement, State House hosted the Nairobi County Empowerment Programme. Thousands trooped in as Ruto presided over the distribution of equipment to 1,115 groups drawn from the 17 constituencies in the city.
The haul was familiar: motorcycles, public address systems, car-wash stations, tents and chairs, catering kits, salon and tailoring machines.
It was a spectacle that dominated the news cycle, complete with music, pool tables, and photo opportunities, and it echoed similar “empowerment” drives by MPs, governors, and political allies across the country.
This is not policy but negative-sum politics. Some individuals may gain for a moment, but the country is left worse off. The politician enjoys applause and a bump in popularity, yet the funds, attention, and administrative energy that should go to reliable power, working roads, functioning markets, and predictable taxes are diverted to pageantry.
The rhetoric around the Sh95,000 price shows how populist optics beat economic clarity. The figure is tied to a single brand, e-bikes, and fixed financing terms. It is not a market-wide revolution, but a narrow, time-bound arrangement turned into a national talking point.
This is how populists translate selective benefits into the illusion of universal relief.
Kenya’s problem is not a shortage of motorcycles. It is a shortage of steady demand, affordable working capital to match cash cycles, and a predictable environment for SMEs.
If they want to empower hustlers, they should pay SME arrears on time, lower nuisance fees, stabilise taxes, secure neighbourhoods, and keep power reliable.
That is what multiplies income for everyone, not 1,115 photo-ready kits in a city of millions.
When populists rise, economies fall because they trade structural investment for political theatre. The politician “wins” with photo opportunities.
A handful of people get assets. The economy loses competitiveness, productivity, and fiscal health.
The sum of all outcomes is negative. Real empowerment is not a show. It is a system where every trader can keep the lights on, restock goods, access affordable credit, and sell into a growing market.
That requires policy, not pageantry, and leaders who understand that prosperity is built, not gifted.
The writer is a whistleblower, Strategy consultant, and a Startup Mentor, www.nelsonamenya.com
