There is a popular game usually played by elderly men in urban and rural markets called draught or checkers. In my language, we call it "ndia ruru," loosely translated directly as "eat this one".
It is played by two opponents on the opposite side of the board. One moves dark pieces and the other lighter ones. One key goal of any player is to reach one opponent's end corner, popularly known as reaching "the king ". A king can terrorise the opponents as it flies over the opponent's pieces, unlike a normal piece.
Another key goal of the game is to reduce one's pieces by removing them from the board through scoring and vice versa.
One greatest trick in the game occurs when an opponent voluntarily gives one of his pieces for removal to an opponent. Often that signifies a trick or ruse that opens the way for a major but surprise counterattack when one responds to the free gift.
Politics is like that game of draught. It is full of trickeries and ruses. One might feign defeat or acquiesce but actually spring a surprise later.
Looking at how politics is unfolding in Kenya, all focus is on Mlima. That is good because the region has huge vote basket.
But that might be a political ruse. Like a draught game where an opponent has given you space to score only for him to spring a surprise and score four pieces at a go. The true political surprise for 2027 elections might be hidden in the Western region of Mulembe nation.
The best way to strip down this hidden game is to read the body language of Western politicians. Their body language is sending signals of a dormant volcano that is rumbling underneath waiting to erupt anytime soon. If you want to know a region's future, study leaders' body language. They often betray their people's true thinking.
That became clear in 2021 during BBI debate. There was Tanga Tanga faction when BBI report was tabled before parliament. Its supporters were pro-government and its detractors Tanga Tanga that later morphed into UDA.
One Tanga Tanga faction leader kept assuring his wing of supporters that North Eastern was their bedrock who would vote in their favour come 2022 elections.
BBI had been fashioned as constitutionalising "one man one vote" doctrine fiercely opposed by North Eastern region. When North Eastern MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour of the report, I sensed danger ahead of 2022 elections for the region's votes. Tanga Tanga lost heavily in 2022 elections in North Eastern. We should have picked BBI signal in 2021 by digging deeper based on the regional leaders parliamentary voting pattern.
Traditionally, the region has learned Azimio very strongly. Azimio has had five political bases - Nyanza, Western, Coast, and small communities. Nairobi is always a toss-up.
Under broadbased, three of these regions seem politically stable - Coast, Nyanza and small communities.
But curious political undertones are everywhere in Western. Start with the maverick politician called Peter Salasya.
If you ever go to a noisy market to talk to people, get to know its true vibe by listening and watching maverick people. Those theatrics of Salasya of Kakamega should not be ignored - they communicate something deeper.
Okiya Omtatah is another colourful politician from Busia sending funny political signals. The fact is, he has put his name on the table. What is he responding to? Some underneath political message?
In Vihiga, Senator Osotsi is throwing hard political punches. As a senior ODM official, he ought to be parroting the official party line.
Then there is Tawe in Bukusu land. The Tawe man is busy spreading the political embers and pulling huge crowds under the guise of undercutting Musalia Mudavadi and Speaker Moses Wetang’ula .
But even Mudavadi and Wetang’ula themselves seem to be hiding something under their sleeve. In Kikuyu we say "matiraumukania" - they are not truly speaking up. Rumours out there indicate a new party called DNA has been registered by allies of one of them. The other one has not folded his party as "he ought to".
The signals are even more radical here. Edwin Sifuna is "more fire". Cleophas Malala has kept the nation mesmerised the entire week.
I guess Malala's true drama was not the Butere Girls set piece. This was mise en abyme or metadrama . A play within a play. Where a play features another play as part of its plot, blurring the lines between reality and fiction.
Malala's true audience was the larger nation. His arrest and media focus expanded his audience to the whole country - probably his true hidden wish.
The police fell into Malala's true play when they arrested him and caused unwarranted trouble to the young girls.
In politics, always watch out for people with lots of melodrama. At the opportune time, they might spring a surprise and trick people into a major political victory. Like the biblical Hivites of Gibeon who cleverly tricked Joshua. They disguised themselves as weary travellers of a distant land using old clothes, patched sandals and dry bread to deceive Israelites. The Israelites, unaware they were actually their neighbours, made peace with them.
Western has the numbers to truly deliver a huge political direction. Last census they were only 3 million shy of the Kikuyu. Certain constituencies in Nairobi are now firmly in the Western region's grip. In Coast, Western has several members of Parliament.
Probably the region has suddenly sensed its numerical advantage. Therefore, as political pundits keep an eye on The Mountain, watch out Western. Something is brewing there.
