President William Ruto has consistently led the emerging 2027 presidential race in a series of opinion polls released over the past four months. However, the latest figures show a contest where the incumbent has yet to secure the level of support required to win the presidency in the first round.
While the Head of State has consistently had the largest share of support across the surveys, his numbers have remained below the constitutional threshold of more than 50 per cent of the votes cast required to avoid a runoff, as well as securing at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in more than half of the counties.
The latest Politrack Africa survey puts the president at 45.1 per cent — his highest recorded figure among recent national polls — but this is still short of the 50 per cent threshold. At 45.1 per cent, the poll leaves him 4.9 percentage points short of 50 per cent, not to mention the constitutional requirement that a president-elect must also obtain at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in more than half of the counties.
President Ruto is currently leading the 2027 presidential race, while the opposition is still negotiating how to select a single candidate. Those involved in efforts to craft a joint coalition formula include Kalonzo Musyoka, Edwin Sifuna, Rigathi Gachagua and Fred Matiang’i. The absence of a settled opposition ticket has left the field divided among several presidential hopefuls, a factor reflected in the latest opinion polls giving Dr Ruto a considerable lead over individual challengers.
Shifting opposition landscape
The poll also reveals a shifting opposition landscape, with Nairobi Senator Sifuna surging to 19.6 per cent. This makes him the top-ranked opposition contender, introducing a new dimension to the race for the position of President Ruto’s main challenger in August 2027. Emmanuel Kutosi, Data Reporting Officer at Politrack Africa, said the poll reflects the current political mood across the country ahead of 2027.
President William Ruto speaks to residents of Siaya County during his tour of Nyanza region on September 15, 2026.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
“There has been a change in the dynamics, particularly in terms of who people see as the main challenger to President Ruto. Other opposition candidates who had previously topped the polls have declined, while Sifuna’s support has grown,” Mr Kutosi said while releasing the data.
Wiper Patriotic Front Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka addresses the media at the party headquarters in Nairobi on August 7, 2026.
Photo credit: Bonface Bogita | Nation Media Group
Kalonzo Musyoka and other candidates have seen their support fall as Mr Sifuna’s has risen. The latest Politrack survey places the Wiper leader at 10.3 per cent, down from 22 per cent in the Swiss Poll released in August.
An Infotrak survey in June put Kalonzo at 13 per cent, while Mr Sifuna and former CS Fred Matiang’i were both on 12 per cent.
The July TIFA poll put Kalonzo at 13 per cent, behind Sifuna on 15 per cent and Matiang’i on 14 per cent. Mr Sifuna’s latest result of 19.6 per cent marks a significant rise from the low double-digit support he recorded in earlier surveys. Meanwhile, Kalonzo’s numbers have fluctuated sharply depending on the poll and timing.
The poll showed that 18 per cent of respondents were undecided, meaning more than one in six had not settled on a candidate.
A month later, a Swiss Poll survey put Ruto at 31 per cent, Kalonzo at 22 per cent, Sifuna at 13 per cent, and Matiang’i at 11 per cent. Sixteen per cent of respondents were undecided. Among those opposed to Ruto, Kalonzo led the opposition nomination preference with 41 per cent, followed by Sifuna with 26 per cent.
The latest Politrack findings therefore mark a significant shift in Sifuna's standing. His support rises from 12 per cent in the Infotrak survey and 15 per cent in the TIFA poll to 19.6 per cent in the latest survey, while Kalonzo's figure moves in the opposite direction from 22 per cent in the Swiss Poll to 10.3 per cent in Politrack.
The latest Politrack survey involved 20,419 respondents, with sampling structured at county level and national estimates weighted according to each county's share of the registered-voter population. Politrack reported a 95 per cent confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna addresses a Linda Mwananchi rally at Jacaranda Grounds in Nairobi on September 13, 2026.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
While Mr Sifuna leads the individual opposition figures in the latest Politrack survey, the party numbers tell a sophisticated story on shifting loyalties and a fragmented opposition.
UDA, for instance, has risen to 32 per cent in the latest survey, up from 22 per cent in Infotrak’s June poll, while ODM has fallen to 10.6 per cent from 21 per cent in the same survey. Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), which was at 9 per cent in Infotrak, has edged up to 11.7 per cent, while Jubilee and Wiper remain largely unchanged at 6.9 per cent and 5.6 per cent respectively.
The movement is also visible in the earlier TIFA surveys, which in May placed ODM at 30 per cent, UDA at 17 per cent and DCP at 16 per cent, before its June survey put ODM at 20 per cent, UDA at 17 per cent, DCP at 12 per cent, Jubilee at 10 per cent and Wiper at 7 per cent, with 28 per cent of respondents saying they did not identify with any party.
Dominant individual party
The latest Politrack figures imply that UDA has strengthened its position as the dominant individual party, but they also show that no opposition party has yet established a comparable national base, with large numbers of voters still outside party structures.
There is also a shift in how Kenyans are assessing the government’s record, with the public now almost evenly divided over the country’s direction. The latest Politrack found 45.2 per cent saying Kenya was moving in the right direction, against 44.6 per cent who felt it was headed in the wrong direction, pointing to a much less clear-cut public verdict on the administration.
Roads and housing emerged as the strongest areas of government performance, each cited by 16.3 per cent, followed by health services, SHIF and SHA at 13 per cent and agriculture at 10 per cent.
But the administration continues to face strong criticism over issues that have remained politically sensitive, with the fight against corruption ranking worst at 19.2 per cent, followed by health services and SHIF/SHA management at 18.4 per cent, while the economy and cost of living stood at 12 per cent and jobs and youth opportunities at 10.4 per cent.
There is also an emerging pattern on the battlefields that could shape the 2027 contest, with Ruto’s support appearing to wane in Mt Kenya while Western Kenya emerges as a new competitive arena.
The Infotrak survey, for instance, put Ruto at just 12 per cent in Central, where 26 per cent of respondents were undecided, while the latest Politrack figures show UDA support at 34.7 per cent in Mt Kenya East and 23.1 per cent in Mt Kenya West. Kalonzo dominated Eastern with 40 per cent, pointing to increasingly competitive contests outside the traditional opposition strongholds.
At the same time, President Ruto’s strongest support across the polls remains concentrated in the Rift Valley and northern Kenya, with the latest Politrack figures putting UDA support at 53.2 per cent in the North and South Rift, 44.1 per cent in northern Kenya and 36.8 per cent in the Maa region.
In Western, meanwhile, the June Infotrak poll showed a much tighter contest, with Ruto at 35 per cent and Sifuna at 26 per cent, making the region one of the clearest emerging battlegrounds outside the opposition’s traditional bases.
