President William Ruto (left) Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and ODM chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga.
For President William Ruto, the path to 2027 is as much a numbers game as a political balancing act.
Beyond policy and governance, the critical question remains: which region and which leader will provide the votes needed to secure the deputy presidency and consolidate a winning coalition?
Last week's by-elections have offered insights—but also deepened the dilemma.
During the mini-polls, three key figures emerged as potential running-mate contenders: Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, who oversaw campaigns in Mbeere North; Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, who led operations in Ugunja and Kasipul; and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who fronted the Malava contest.
Prof Kindiki was widely viewed as the most vulnerable, with his future as deputy president seemingly tied to the outcome of the Mbeere North race.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki congratulates Leo Muthende of UDA after he was declared the winner in the Mbeere North by-election.
All three leaders delivered victories, leaving President Ruto and his strategists with no immediate grounds to justify dropping any of them—intensifying the succession puzzle instead of solving it.
Political analyst Phillip Kisia argues that shifting alliances have altered the President’s original 2022 power matrix:
He expects an imminent government reshuffle driven not by policy, but by electoral arithmetic.
“It is apparent that Ruto’s 2022 line-up has been overtaken by events. He has no choice but to review it for his own survival. He will have his eye fixed firmly on numbers. It won’t be an easy walk,” Mr Kisia explained.
Tension persists within two regions that helped Dr Ruto edge out Raila Odinga in the 2022 presidential elections by only two percent. In Mt Kenya, he garnered 87 percent of the votes, while in Western, roughly 500,000 votes secured his victory.
Embakasi North MP James Gakuya believes the President destabilised his support base by orchestrating the impeachment of DP Rigathi Gachagua and elevating Prof Kindiki to replace him — a matter still under litigation.
The move coincided with rebellion within Mt Kenya and fractures in ODM following Raila Odinga’s death.
Within ODM, Governor Wanga’s faction supports a cooperation deal with Ruto, while the Sifuna-led wing opposes it.
Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga (left) addresses ODM supporters after Boyd Were (centre) was declared the winner of the Kasipul parliamentary by-election on Nvemebr 28, 2025.
ODM leader Dr Oburu Oginga has publicly signalled willingness to partner with Ruto on condition that they get the deputy president slot
Political commentator Prof Peter Kagwanja says the demand by Dr Oginga is strategic.
“Deputy presidency and running mate are different demands. Oginga’s position suggests he is seeking a government reshuffle, not just a campaign promise,” he said.
President Ruto now faces two opposition forces of United Opposition — led by Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka, Eugene Wamalwa, Fred Matiang’i and George Natembeya and Kenya Moja Alliance — formed by splinter groups from both United Opposition and Broad-Based Government.
Political scientist Festus Wangwe says the by-elections only deepened the uncertainty:
“Instead of guiding the President towards political divorce or alliance shifts, the results delivered wins for all key partners. It left him more confused than before,” he said.
Mr Wangwe says "most political analysts believe that President Ruto's prime running mate grounds remain to be Mt Kenya, Nyanza, Lower Eastern or Western regions".
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi addressing the press in Kakamega on November 23, 2025 after Malava parliamentary aspirant Joab Manyasi stepped down in favour of UDA's David Ndakwa.
He says prime candidates for the running mate positions in Mt Kenya measured with prominence index would ideally be Prof Kindiki, Gachagua, Anne Waiguru, Cecily Mbarire, Mwangi Kiunjuri, Ndindi Nyoro or Irungu Kang'ata.
"In Nyanza region, we have Dr Matiang'i, Ms Wanga, Winnie Odinga and Babu Owino, while in Western region we have Mudavadi, Moses Wetangu'la, George Natembeya and Mr Sifuna. In Lower Eastern, we have Mr Musyoka and Dr Alfred Mutua," Mr Wangwe said.
The import of this argument is that the running mate position most critically looks at the numbers the nominee can deliver towards achieving the constitutional threshold of 50 plus one of all validly cast votes.
According to Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission data (2022), Central region has a combined 3.2 million votes, plus the 1.4 million votes in Embu, Meru and Tharaka Nithi counties that define Mt Kenya East.
Nyanza region offers a vote basket of 3.1 million, which includes the 960, 293 from the Abagusii community.
Lower Eastern has 1.7 million votes, while Western region offers 2.2 million votes.
"It is in these regions that the President should get his running mate through negotiations and striking of contest deals... It should not disturb you that there are those potential candidates listed, but they appear to be in opposition. Every man has a price," Mr Wangwe said.
Politics being simply the pursuit of individual fortunes packaged as a desire to serve public good, Political scientist Mr John Okumu says "no one listed above can be ruled out as a possible President Ruto running mate".
Laikipia East MP CS Mwangi Kiunjuri insists the deputy pick must remain from Mt Kenya, regardless of who it is.
“The Mbeere North win proved the mountain has not abandoned Dr Ruto. With the right engagement, 2027 is still viable,” he said.
Governor Natembeya, however, rejects any possibility of working with Dr Ruto.
“I will be the last to join him. He goes into 2027 carrying the tag of a national bogeyman,” he said.
He and Dr Matiang’i accuse UDA of electoral malpractice in Malava and vow to intensify “Wantam” — their rallying cry for removing Ruto from power.
“Wantam must be real. Ruto’s presidency must be an ending movie,” Matiang’i declared at a burial in Mbeere North on November 29.
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