Ominously, once a poster child of freedom, stability and steady development, Tanzania is caught on the cusp between reforms and chaos.
On Wednesday, 37.6 million Tanzanian voters were expected to vote in the General Election to elect the next president, members of the National Assembly and ward councillors. But complicated by poor turnout, voter apathy, particularly among young Tanzanians, and the absence of major opposition contenders, the elections have morphed into Tanzania’s most shambolic, divisive and chaotic General Election ever, leaving the country divided, vulnerable and badly exposed.
The road to the elections has been a dangerous minefield of derailed reforms, manipulation of democratic institutions, power tussles within the ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), persecution of the opposition leaders, electoral irregularities and violence. This has triggered Tanzania’s worst and bloodiest violent protests over Samia Suluhu’s increasing authoritarianism, derailed reforms and disputed election results.
Samia has shrilly pushed Tanzania to its thick winter of protests, instability and uncertainty. She refused to take to heart Amnesty International’s warning that the elections “risk becoming a procedural affair devoid of legitimacy.” In a public and forceful way, the Tanzanian voter has rejected Samia’s version of ‘democracy as coronation,’ insisting on reforms leading to a fair and competitive democratic process.
Winning an election is never a problem for incumbents. The problem is ensuring the legitimacy of the process to guarantee post-poll stability. Samia’s challenge was not winning the election. Instead, it was to win the hearts and minds of Tanzanians and East Africans that she was elected in a fair contest. This was necessary to give legitimacy to her re-election and avoid turning voting into a coronation.
Lamentably, Samia chose coronation. She closed all avenues to a fair contest. Unwittingly, she turned the presidential election into a plebiscite where the choice is between ‘two Samia Suluhu Hassans’: One Samia is Lockean—just, democratic and embracing reforms; the other is Hobbesian—blisteringly autocratic, manipulative and anti-reform, making life in Tanzania brutal, nasty and short.
The world welcomed a Lockean reformist Samia. Upon coming to power in 2021 as Tanzania’s first female president following the death of President John Magufuli, she began her term as the sixth president by promising far-reaching reforms. Under her predecessor (2016-2021), Tanzania had taken a dangerous authoritarian turn. She trained his guns on critics within the ruling party and the opposition. Tanzania became unsafe for democracy and development. In 2017, opposition chief Tundu Lissu sustained heavy injuries in an assassination attempt. His vehicle was sprayed with at least 16 bullets. Another opposition official, Ali Kibao, was abducted, killed and his body doused in acid by unknown assailants.
Against this backdrop, Samia unfurled her well-loved 4Rs agenda—Reconciliation, Resilience, Reform and Rebuild—to reversed the many repressive policies of her predecessor. She eased political repression and embraced the opposition as a partner not a rival. In January 2023, she lifted the unconstitutional ban on public rallies for political parties. She denounced the killing of opposition leader Kibao, and ordered speedy investigations. She promised constitutional reforms to put Tanzania’s development on a stable democratic keel.
However, when Samia set her eyes on a second term, she started seeing internal party pressure within the CCM and the resurgence of the opposition as threats to her ambition. She retreated from these progressive reforms and resorted to the repressive tactics reminiscent of her predecessor. Her war to win power targeted potential challengers in both the CCM and opposition. Within the CCM, she resorted to a Magufuli script of manipulating the party, centralising power and creating a cabal of trusted loyalists as the new fulcrum of power.
In Tanzania’s most ruthless purge, she has replaced the intelligence chief three times, reshuffled the Cabinet four times in 2024 alone and manoeuvred to winning over central figures in CCM. She accepted the resignation of long-time party stalwart and CCM vice-chairman Abdulrahman Kinana, a potential challenger or king-maker. In July 2024, Samia dismissed January Makamba, the Foreign Affairs minister who was widely seen as a future CCM presidential candidate. She also dropped outspoken Nape Nnauye as Information minister just a week after he appeared in a video suggesting the polls would be rigged.
Her politics paid off. In January, CCM nominated her as its presidential candidate for the election and Emmanuel Nchimbi as her running mate. By this time, the party of Julius Nyerere, Hassan Mwinyi and Benjamin Mkapa, had grown intensely paranoid. Internal factional struggles have left behind deep divisions in CCM, weakening its capacity to mount a robust response the post-election crisis.
On its part, the main opposition, Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema), was always suspicious of Samia’s reform promises. The opposition pointed to the government’s reluctance to adopt a new Constitution. Samia grew increasingly fearful of the opposition’s strength. On April 9, 2024, CHADEMA chairman Tundu Lissu was arrested on charges of incitement and treason after calling for electoral reforms at a rally. About 100 of its members were detained. In April, CHADEMA was disqualified from competing in the election after INEC said it had failed to sign a code of conduct document that was due on 12 April.
In August, Luhaga Mpina, a CCM lawmaker, left the party and joined the Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT-Wazalendo) party. He was barred from running for president over complaints that the party had failed to comply with nomination procedures in the primaries. Only 16 fringe parties, none of whom have historically had significant public support, were allowed to run.
The election has stirred a political storm. Thousands of youth have taken to the streets to denounce the election as unfair. Tanzania has entered its worst winter of unrest with clashes between protesters and the police resulting in deaths, injuries and damage of property.
Protests have continued even after the government imposed night curfew, shut down the internet and directed government employees to work from home and security forces fired shots at protesters who defied a curfew.
By adopting Magufuli’s authoritarian script, Samia has slowly killed democracy, courted authoritarianism, and fuelled grassroots resistance. It is fair to conclude that she is the foremost existential threat to Tanzania’s future.
