Inside Ruto’s ODM deal to win back Western Kenya

Part of the broader plan to ramp up the numbers in the two regions includes laying claim to the running mate slot. ODM has since proposed Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya as a possible replacement for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. According to insiders, picking a member of the outfit is likely to appeal to the ODM traditional bases.

The Luo Nyanza counties of Kisumu, Migori, Siaya and Homa Bay cumulatively have 2.41 million votes as per the current register. A projection by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) shows that the four counties would in 2027 polls have 2.78 million votes.

In Western, Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma, Vihiga and Trans Nzoia currently boast of 2.9 million voters. IEBC projects that the five counties will have 3.4 million voters by the time the country goes to the election on August 10, 2027.

The plan, however, faces a strong challenge from the Linda Mwananchi movement. In Western, the movement has continued to gain traction, with members of the ODM breakaway team rallying behind Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna for the presidency.

Some of the region’s top political figures, including Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi and Kakamega Senator Boni Khakwale, have since aligned themselves with Mr Sifuna.

Luo Nyanza is also going through a major political realignment following the death of Raila. Siaya Governor James Orengo and Suba South MP are some of the notable figures from the region who have fallen out with the mainstream ODM. They have teamed up with Mr Sifuna in challenging the influence of the current ODM leadership.

But allies of Dr Ruto have announced their plan to unite the two communities in rallying support for the president. The two regions largely voted for Mr Odinga in the 2022 presidential race.

ODM National Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga downplayed the influence of Linda Mwananchi in the two regions. She said ODM will treat the movement as any other opponent.

“We will confront it the way we have confronted other parties before to retain our bases,” Ms Wanga told the Nation.

Migori Senator Eddy Oketch at the weekend called on members of the Luo and Luhya communities to unite and support President Ruto’s re-election bid. He said the two communities should work together politically while also positioning themselves to negotiate for the presidency in 2032.

Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula, who also serves as deputy coordinator of President Ruto’s regional campaigns, said the two communities are working to present a united front in their support for the President’s re-election. He further urged leaders from Western and Nyanza to begin laying the groundwork for a joint political strategy beyond the 2027 election.

Mr Wandayi accused former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration of doing little to address the economic challenges facing Western Kenya. He cited the revival of Mumias Sugar and Nzoia Sugar companies under the current administration as evidence of Dr Ruto’s commitment to the region.

“In the last four years, Ruto has done a lot for the people of Nyanza and Western, and they should reciprocate by giving him all the votes,” Mr Wandayi said.

Sirisia MP John Waluke said a majority of MPs from the region were likely to support President Ruto, citing what he described as the spread of development projects across the country.

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