Former Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila Odinga dances with other party leaders in Funyula, Busia County on February 28, 2025 as they celebrated the party's 20-year journey.
When the whole world bid goodbye to the former Prime Minister Raila Odinga on October 19, 2025, it signalled a new era in Kenya’s political arena.
The pain was not only evident in the Odinga family and supporters, but also in his political allies, a majority of whom have always swept to elective positions by riding on his back.
Their political journey, survival, and fate have for years been largely determined by Mr Odinga. And as the family mourned their loved one, supporters struggling to come to terms with the loss of a man who sacrificed his life to bring reforms and democratic space, some political elites were preoccupied with what would happen to their political careers come 2027.
For them, the absence of the torchbearer now puts their political future in jeopardy, forcing them to devise a strategy to help them remain relevant, or perish before the next General elections.
While others are conspicuous with many Raila supporters and members of the public listing them as “Raila’s political orphans”, it is Leader of Minority Party in the National Assembly Mr Junet Mohamed’s sentiments that clearly showed the many casualties of Mr Odinga’s demise.
“I have seen on social media, people ridiculing me, that my career is finished and that I am a political orphan. But I have realised that many who have paid tribute here are all orphans. I will therefore collect all of them so that I become Chairman of all Raila political orphans,” said Mr Mohammed.
He added that Raila was everything to them, a leader and a father to them and knew when to fight and when to lay arms down.
For Mr Mohamed, the Orange Democratic Movement leader took him from nowhere and thrust him into the political arena, attributing all his achievements to him.”
Many times, he would be blamed for advising the former Opposition leader wrongly, since he was the closest, even the one who was trusted to accompany Mr Odinga to Harambee House, where the March 2018 handshake with former President Uhuru Kenyatta happened.
He was even among the key people accused of bungling Mr Odinga’s presidential bid in 2022 with many claiming he mismanaged polling agents.
“Baba made me the Mayor of Migori at only 25 years, MP for many years and minority leader in the National Assembly. I am saddened because people know how close we were with Baba, my father. He referred to me as the black sheep of ODM because on numerous occasions I would take all the bullets on his behalf,” said Mr Mohamed.
Having served as MP for Suna East for three terms now, many believed he was being voted in because of his closeness to ‘Baba’, but he is not the only one who will have to go back to the drawing board before 2027.
He added, “I thought I was alone, but the way I have seen people shed tears while mourning Baba has given me some strength and a ray of hope. I was sad and devastated that it was only me, but now I am glad we are many.”
Indeed, the number is a lot, some within Mr Odinga’s circles, some in the executive, while others are his adversaries who used him as a Boogieman, especially in the Mount Kenya region, for them to gain political mileage.
Perhaps the biggest 'orphans' are President William Ruto and former President Uhuru Kenyatta. Not only was the ODM leader a foe turned friend, but he came to their aid during the darkest days of Kenya, saving their administrations from a near collapse.
President Ruto, referring to Baba as his political teacher, mentor and adviser, confirmed statements from the media that he was the worst hit by his death.
“The past few days, I have seen and heard through the media that Raila’s death is a big blow to me. I can confirm that it is true, it is a major blow for me,” said President Ruto in Bondo on Sunday.
Having pegged his re-election bid on the pact between his United Democratic Alliance Party and ODM, the absence of the torchbearer who could whip his troops and supporters to rally behind him at will is now no more.
His options are having the experts and charismatic ODM leaders to continue with the journey or go to the people directly to inherit Baba’s strongholds.
For Mr Kenyatta, Mr Odinga was his key ally in facing President Ruto when he felt the country was going in the wrong direction.
Charismatic leader
The ODM leader was the only charismatic leader who could face the head of State and mobilise his supporters to push for a cause. Apart from the political environment, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga were buddies and family friends as he narrated when paying tribute at Nyayo Stadium on Friday.
His gesture to visit his grave on Monday just displayed how lonely he has been left and has to come up with a master strategy to stay politically relevant without Mr Odinga.
Then there is Dr Oburu, who, apart from being referred to as Youth leader’, another moniker attached to him is Nyathi Kich (an orphan), having lost his parents, but now that he has lost his younger brother who he also attributes part of his political achievements to, is also now gone, making him now la political orphan of Raila too.
One would not want to be Nairobi governor Johnson Sakaja now. Having been saved from impeachment several times by the Opposition leader and in the wake of President Ruto’s admission that the city county was not doing well and needed the help of the national government, spells doom to his political career.
For the many politicians who, after the ODM nomination, had one leg into office, there will be nobody to carry their hands as endorsement.
In the last election, many were given direct tickets and therefore were spared the treacherous journey of campaigns and use of funds.
This time round, things might just be a little more difficult.
Among those who were given direct tickets were Siaya Governor James Orengo, Prof Anyang’ Nyongó (Kisumu), Migori’s Ochilo Ayacko and Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay). For instance, in Homa Bay, Mr Odinga had to prevail upon other formidable candidates, such as her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga and National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, to shelve their ambitions with the promise that they would be given other positions.
Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga eulogises Raila Odinga during the funeral service at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University grounds in Bondo, Siaya County on October 19, 2025.
Others who enjoyed direct tickets in 2022 and are likely to adjust to the new reality and chart a new path include Homa Bay Town’s Opondo Kaluma, Dr Otiende Amollo (Rarieda), Millie Odhiambo (Suba North), Dr Eve Obara (Kabondo Kasipul), Dr Lillian Gogo (Rangwe), Dr James Nyikal (Seme), Jared Okello (Nyando), and Rozah Buyu (Kisumu West).
This time, as they seek their second terms, it will be a bit tougher for them, should they get stronger opponents without Mr Odinga’s backing and protection.
Some who struggled to get the tickets but are feeling the heat on the ground owing to the positions they are aiming for, will now have to work harder to clinch the seats come 2027.
Then there is the Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Edwin Sifuna (Nairobi Senator), Caleb Amisi axis who feel they are the ones who hold the ideals of the ODM Party and could not be touched then because the Party leader protected them, but now the remaining leaders may just decide to take them head-on for survival.
ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna eulogises Raila Odinga during the funeral service at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University grounds in Bondo, Siaya County on October 19, 2025.
Apart from the elected leaders, those who the ODM leader sent as experts to help President Ruto’s cabinet as Cabinet Secretaries such as Opiyo Wandayi (Energy and Petroleum), Mr Mbadi (Treasury), Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy), Mr Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives and MSMEs) and Beatrice Askul (East African Community and ASALs) have also been left without their political father who took their hands and handed them over the Kenya Kwanza government.
Their political future also lies in the hands of President Ruto.
To survive, analysts feel, the “Orphans” will have to continue with Mr Odinga’s values, perform in their respective dockets, constituencies or county governments to boost public confidence and trust and get re-elected, or jump ship to other outfits, form their own to build a new brand away from Mr Odinga.
Political commentator Daniel Orogo feels elected leaders will have to use the remaining time available before 2027 to go back to the ground and endear themselves to their constituents by delivering on their promises.
“MPs and governors must now begin to align to the constituency demands and ensure they have succeeded in their development record. They will have to go back and campaign because their opponents have been engaging the people directly,” said Mr Orogo.
To him, riding on Mr Odinga’s name might not work for those who are used to benefit from hanging on Raila’s coat, as they will help him in the battle at the national level.
He also thinks the leaders will try to ride the broad-based bus, hoping it will still identify with the people.
The pundit, however, believes that for President Ruto, there will be a serious political realignment and therefore he must work extremely hard to inherit Mr Odinga’s strongholds.
“For Ruto to inherit Raila’s bastion, he may decide to take over ODM like he had suggested during the burial, having an understanding of the party and being a founder member. It is easier for him to re-join ODM and convince his troops to follow him than hold on to UDA, which has lost its vibrancy in Mount Kenya and other parts of the country,” said Mr Orogo.
To Dr Obora Okoth, a political analyst, most ‘Orphans’ will shift towards President Ruto as the new figurehead, for survival, arguing that that is the direction their political father had shown them to follow.
This was evident during the funeral, as many close allies of the ODM leader pledged their allegiance to the president.
“With the short period, these hangers-on will not strive to deliver; they will cling to Ruto’s coat or any other powerful person who appears to be followed by the masses. But even as he seeks to accommodate all these people, he will have too much pressure adopting all the orphans and at the same time dealing with the pressure from the public,” said Dr Okoth.
He, however, warned that any other leader from ODM who tries to chart a different path from that of the party should be alive to the consequences.
“In the eyes of the people who believed in Raila and ODM, jumping out of the party might be viewed as not only betrayal, suicidal and defiant to the legacy of Raila,” said Dr Okoth.
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